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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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9 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

This is coming from  meteorologist, seriously? Were you expecting major hurricane in June or July?

And I said that where? Learn to read for context please.

By no means am I calling for a "season fail" the rest of the way through, but consider some actual, I don't know, statistics.

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1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said:

No, he just appreciates quality because he is Canadian and doesn’t have to swear fealty to the bud light 30 pack of hurricane seasons. 

The only drink I couldn’t stomach in college :lol: 

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Just now, the ghost of leroy said:

No, he just appreciates quality because he is Canadian and doesn’t have to swear fealty to the bud light 30 pack of hurricane seasons. 

What made you think you were going to get anything on your wish list before September?

 

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Just now, BYG Jacob said:

What made you think you were going to get anything on your wish list before September?

 

Nothing I guess. But until some of those happen I won’t defend this season as being “good”.

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1 minute ago, andyhb said:

And I said that where? Learn to read for context please.

By no means am I calling for a "season fail" the rest of the way through, but consider some actual, I don't know, statistics.

I can grasp context, you are bemoaning the lack of quality. So, my question was, why on Earth you expect such quality before September?

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3 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

What made you think you were going to get anything on your wish list before September?

 

I have no clue how people can call this season a bust.

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1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Nothing I guess. But until some of those happen I won’t defend this season as being “good”.

We haven't hit peak climo yet. Chill out

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I have no clue how people can call this season a bust.

It’s not a bust yet. It’s just also not good or worth going to the mat for simply because we have found 15 closed circulations and some of them did things. 

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21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Somebody measured a 25 mb pressure drop in 7 minutes in the derecho.  You don't even get that drop rate in the eyewall of most (if not all) hurricanes. :guitar:

Cedar Rapids is going to be the new Sandy. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

And off the rails we go :lol: 

I apologize, I just can't understand why people are complaining about the lack of Majors in the Atlantic, especially before peak.

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Cedar Rapids is going to be the new Sandy. 

It’s wasnt even the most interesting derecho of the year. That’s my true hot take for this thread. 

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5 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

I apologize, I just can't understand why people are complaining about the lack of Majors in the Atlantic, especially before peak.

It’s fine. We’re a rowdy bunch.

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10 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

I can grasp context, you are bemoaning the lack of quality. So, my question was, why on Earth you expect such quality before September?

I don't know, because expecting more than 1 out of 15 storms through August to be beyond a Category 1 seems reasonable? Again, it's all relative to the amount of actual activity. Sure if we had only 6 named storms by now, it might look more impressive in terms of "quality" if we had 3-4 canes and 1 major.

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The rockies one in June? Idk man. 

Much more unusual genesis, nuclear wind gusts too. Spatial coverage exceeds Iowa too. Plus I am deducting some points for performance enhancements like corn dewpoints and more widespread coverage of trees to damage. 

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9 minutes ago, andyhb said:

I don't know, because expecting more than 1 out of 15 storms through August to be beyond a Category 1 seems reasonable? Again, it's all relative to the amount of actual activity. Sure if we had only 6 named storms by now, it might look more impressive in terms of "quality" if we had 3-4 canes and 1 major.

August was either 4/3/1 on formations in August (Isaias formed in July, but wasn't a hurricane until August). No kidding we didn't get a category 2 above hurricane in June and July, that's not how the Atlantic works.

 

EDIT: I totally forgot Arthur and Bertha were in May, point still stands

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2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

How many crap storms did we miss in 1933? I know Landsea says something like 1 to 2 per year pre satellite Era but some of those big years back then it must have been even more. 

That’s what’s cool. Ignorance is bliss. Maybe we should only name hurricanes or do what other agencies do and split tropical storms into two groups starting at 48kts, only naming the more severe ones. 

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2 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

August was either 4/3/1 on formations in August (Isaias formed in July, but wasn't a hurricane until August). No kidding we didn't get a category 2 above hurricane in June and July, that's not the Atlantic works.

You’re trying to argue with a bunch of people who know climo but don’t give a shit. We have put in the labor over the years and are entitled to bitch. 

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Higher end hurricanes do happen early, it’s just not as common. Some of our big seasons are later bloomers.

I can understand why people dock points for that, but I just think if you’re only looking at ACE you’re going to miss a lot of context. One big fish storm can skew things a lot. 

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2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

You’re trying to argue with a bunch of people who know climo but don’t give a shit. We have put in the labor over the years and are entitled to bitch. 

I'm entitled to tell you your bitching is silly. Pour one out and chill. Based on the models, we're going to be quite busy for a couple weeks.

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12 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

You’re trying to argue with a bunch of people who know climo but don’t give a shit. We have put in the labor over the years and are entitled to bitch. 

 

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I'm glad Omar is not heading to Baltimore. (Enjoyed watching "The Wire.")

Dropped in here this evening, and surprised the activity in the last couple hours. What fun!

We in the Tampa Bay area of Florida experienced what was to become Omar a few days ago, and so far maybe the tropical highlight of the season for wind and rain.

That is not a complaint, believe me. But also happy to not totally miss out in 2020...

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43 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Central Atlantic wave is now designated as Invest 91L.

8pm TWO mentions 30 percent chance for that to develop

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low 
pressure about midway between the Windward Islands and west Africa 
appear to be slowly becoming better organized.  Some additional 
development of this system is possible this week as the system 
meanders in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

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While storm quality has lacked some, we’ve had very few fish storms. Almost everything that’s developed so far has hit land.

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7 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

While storm quality has lacked some, we’ve had very few fish storms. Almost everything that’s developed so far has hit land.

Exactly. In terms of what the general public thinks of this season ACE numbers are meaningless. 
You need a functioning MDR to bring higher ACE numbers. One Ivan or Irma can inflate numbers. 

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