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Vice-Regent

Weenie
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Everything posted by Vice-Regent

  1. Vice-Regent

    Tropical Storm Dorian

    Incredible stuff. The Euro and GFS before the upgrade have always struggled with these mesoscale features. Partly I feel is due to poor soundings and initialization data in this sparse region.
  2. Vice-Regent

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    The operational run too in a strange twist. Minus the sea level pressure.
  3. Vice-Regent

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    99L goes into the Shredder on the 18z GFS (You just can't make this stuff up).
  4. Vice-Regent

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    18z GFS is more less what he's looking for synoptically but there's simply nothing there. I don't believe it. This needs to establish a core soon or it's going to become a significant concern for many.
  5. Vice-Regent

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    Hubris can lead you into dire situations including not being prepared and driving a 8 billion population into a hothouse extinction. Nothing is set in stone in regards to this storm. People thought we would be flying around in cars at this point back in the 60s and 70s.
  6. Vice-Regent

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    Remember nobody does tropical like the SNE.
  7. Vice-Regent

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    New solutions on the table with 12z GFS. Significantly more negative tilt over the Great Lakes.
  8. Vice-Regent

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    The GFS has a tendency to sweep these TCs away too quickly and now we are seeing new solutions on the table. Still not very favorable for getting the Bahamas disturbance into the NE but an indication of the uncertainty ahead. However I suspect if the intensity modeling was correct it may have followed the Euro.
  9. Vice-Regent

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    You guys know how to do tropical. I miss the roaring 50s and 60s and I long for a 38' repeat.
  10. For whatever it's worth the paper references the late 21st century and not now.
  11. Good god... SLR and a change in TC climatology is the perfect storm for disaster.
  12. Vice-Regent

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Good news is that it has returned to some extents on the 18z GFS as a very discernible feature at 850mb. This thing is just waiting to unleash itself. Look at the upper levels too (very Bob-Like)
  13. Vice-Regent

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    These changes in the trough and ridge orientations and also where the TCs are forming is rather interesting. I am wondering if the Sub-Tropical Atlantic was the Main Development Region 30 million years ago or so and somewhat less active in the Pliocene (3 mya).
  14. Vice-Regent

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    We have the luxury of enjoying the Legacy GFS fantasy hurricanes courtesy of Levi Cowan @ tropicaltidbits. Let us hope for a opera of death right on cue. https://col.st/AoV2m RAMMB Geocolor (GOES-16)
  15. Vice-Regent

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    I am having fond memories of a hurricane that I never experienced. Hurricane Bob (1991)
  16. New CESM2 runs are indicating that the most likely value for ECS is 5.3C: A. Gettelman et al. (16 July 2019), "High Climate Sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083978 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL083978 Abstract: "The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) has an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 5.3 K. ECS is an emergent property of both climate feedbacks and aerosol forcing. The increase in ECS over the previous version (CESM1) is the result of cloud feedbacks. Interim versions of CESM2 had a land model that damped ECS. Part of the ECS change results from evolving the model configuration to reproduce the long‐term trend of global and regional surface temperature over the twentieth century in response to climate forcings. Changes made to reduce sensitivity to aerosols also impacted cloud feedbacks, which significantly influence ECS. CESM2 simulations compare very well to observations of present climate. It is critical to understand whether the high ECS, outside the best estimate range of 1.5–4.5 K, is plausible." See also: Title: "New Models Point to More Global Warming Than We Expected" https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/New-Models-Point-More-Global-Warming-We-Expected Extract: "Our planet’s climate may be more sensitive to increases in greenhouse gas than we realized, according to a new generation of global climate models being used for the next major assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The findings—which run counter to a 40-year consensus—are a troubling sign that future warming and related impacts could be even worse than expected. One of the new models, the second version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), saw a 35% increase in its equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the rise in global temperature one might expect as the atmosphere adjusts to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Instead of the model’s previous ECS of 4°C (7.2°F), the CESM2 now shows an ECS of 5.3°C (9.5°F)." Courtesy of AbruptSLR (ASIF)
  17. Vice-Regent

    August Banter 2019

  18. Vice-Regent

    August Banter 2019

    That's how we roll in the Coastal Mid-Atlantic.
  19. Vice-Regent

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Late season dirty ridging is so dangerous because it is carrying the momentum from peak insolation. At least that's how I interpret the situation. Here is some perspective.
  20. Well like many have been saying for some time. The Paleoclimate data robustly agrees with these new NCAR models. IPCC will ignore these findings at their own peril. They have yet to elucidate on a clear path for carbon dioxide removal or suggest the implementation of legislation that would allow climate engineering to become legalized. These are necessary if the IPCC emissions pathway is to be sustainable. Obviously with the inherent risks found in geoengineering we must be more aggressive in reducing deforestation and economic growth.
  21. Weathering Carbon dioxide and the other atmospheric gases dissolve in surface waters. Dissolved gases are in equilibrium with the gas in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide reacts with water in solution to form the weak acid, carbonic acid. Carbonic acid disassociates into hydrogen ions and bicarbonate ions. The hydrogen ions and water react with most common minerals (silicates and carbonates) altering the minerals. The products of weathering are predominantly clays (a group of silicate minerals) and soluble ions such as calcium, iron, sodium, and potassium. Bicarbonate ions also remain in solution; a remnant of the carbonic acid that was used to weather the rocks.
  22. More worryingly. A substantial aerosol forcing would reduce the already diminished TCR. It's easy to see the fragile network of dependencies in our dire situation. If we don't tread lightly we may find ourselves walking over the tipping point in the climate system and in our capacity to reduce atmospheric CO2 faster than the climate is responding.
  23. Keep in mind the devil is in the details. The aerosol forcing continues to muck up the situation when we are extrapolating from real world conditions. Climate models are very accurate simulations of what we should come to expect. We know there is a massive threat from a ECS of 5.3C in the short-term and long-term prognosis because the aerosol forcing will inevitably be reduced. You may also come to understand why geoengineering is so dangerous due to three reasons. 1:) Solar-radiation management keeps the ECS value hidden indefinitely 2:) Geoengineering must be sustained for generations (more or less indefinitely) and finally 3:) Air-Capture reduces the incentive to prevent deforestation and restore a suitable amount of oxygen in the atmosphere and oceans. These models allow us to avoid the risky overhead of geoengineering by providing insight into how our world would function at specific GHG concentrations with the aerosol forcing removed. We should opt for de-growth modes of attack versus mitigation modes of attack.
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