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Windspeed

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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59 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Here is the system here crashing into extreme northeastern NC Virginia Beach 938-945 mb then to a position over Cheasepeak Bay at 964 mb then to the Eastern Great Lakes.  Do I think its overdone maybe but we shall see.  

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_53.png

I miss that blue stuff in the top left corner...
Back on topic though, This will be interesting to watch, the Parallel really wants this to happen.

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That would be a very weird angle of trajectory to go from the Outer Banks to the Great Lakes. Is this even possible? The Cat 4 strength I’m sure is way overdone. 

It's absolutely possible but a rarer solution. You need a very strong NS/NF/Greenland maritime block and general troughness N. Plains and Central Canada. Takes a lot of luck (or bad luck depending on perspective) to get that setup and a TC in the right position, but it does occur. 

Anyone remember Hazel?d495b3fe062fc1fff72f22eb6927947c.gif&key=f590d1878498746d3916047daf0bd9fdb59cdeed5d49e77f6fa43b035bce8f6f

 

Again, not saying this is going to happen, but SSTs off the SE are still way above normal. Isaias did little to upwell and the disturbance forecast to move ENE out into the Atlantic won't be strong enough to put much of a dent in the thermocline.

 

Also similar setups have been Hugo and Isabel, though Isabel was a large mess by the time it got up to the Carolinas. You also need a favorable upper environment and mitigatable shear, which is also more difficult at that latitude. So it takes more than just the maritime block. But we can get NW moving systems off the SE to Outer banks and have them reach the Great Lakes region.

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99L in the eastern Caribbean is looking really healthy today. It is convectively active along the axis with notable southerly backside flow in the low levels. This probably does not yet have a closed circulation at the surface, but the cloud pattern is suggestive for mid level cyclonic turning. There is a building upper 200 hPa anticyclone over the Caribbean and sufficient easterly 800 hPa moisture surge surrounding 99L's envelope. Shear is nil through its potential westward track. If the disturbance manages to close off a surface vortex, it has the ingredients to intensify.4d8f300d1663c7ca3ca02b503c85aea6.gif

34ec975852eebefda9313da79a162198.jpg

2e49e37d9b6b6f6ae1ef86977cf05ae3.gif

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13 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

99L in the eastern Caribbean is looking really healthy today. It is convectively active along the axis with notable southerly backside flow in the low levels. This probably does not yet have a closed circulation at the surface, but the cloud pattern is suggestive for mid level cyclonic turning. There is a building upper 200 hPa anticyclone over the Caribbean and sufficient easterly 800 hPa moisture surge surrounding 99L's envelope. Shear is nil through its potential westward track. If the disturbance manages to close off a surface vortex, it has the ingredients to intensify.4d8f300d1663c7ca3ca02b503c85aea6.gif

34ec975852eebefda9313da79a162198.jpg

2e49e37d9b6b6f6ae1ef86977cf05ae3.gif

Conditions look favorable enough for a hurricane

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99L in the eastern Caribbean is looking really healthy today. It is convectively active along the axis with notable southerly backside flow in the low levels. This probably does not yet have a closed circulation at the surface, but the cloud pattern is suggestive for mid level cyclonic turning. There is a building upper 200 hPa anticyclone over the Caribbean and sufficient easterly 800 hPa moisture surge surrounding 99L's envelope. Shear is nil through its potential westward track. If the disturbance manages to close off a surface vortex, it has the ingredients to intensify.4d8f300d1663c7ca3ca02b503c85aea6.gif&key=3d6253a55d12fe03bf19e54a6d1fd8270b4ab3f4af15de795ef5bf12d53be3db
34ec975852eebefda9313da79a162198.jpg&key=9d4b8d5373d32639aecdcd243844a86122cedcf0e694c6f8ccbdcb3fe6b746f7
2e49e37d9b6b6f6ae1ef86977cf05ae3.gif&key=460a55d7325b049f3298e75fdeb9da52a60d427cdfb1e6d8676311e559a7e49c




.
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Environment looks pretty decent by Caribbean standards, not sure why models are struggling to do much. There's some dryness out ahead of it, but shear is light and when it exists, it seems to be northerly or easterly. Though it's not actually getting much help from upper level divergence, as it is only modest at best. 

image.thumb.png.c641f8c9f9b10e817c87d669c6cbd144.png

 

gfs_midRH_watl_8.png

gfs_uv200_watl_8.png

 

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c4GhGLK.gif

 

Dont get too excited. thats the  GFS  they have that still shows fantasy  storms. Maybe  in winter  it will be set to show  lots  of  blizzards.

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Any thoughts on this potential system?

image.thumb.png.789783dab9224e70ccf99976cbc0c173.png

I can say here in Gulfport, Florida, we've had over 3 inches of rain since last night with more on the way with gusts over 30 mph. At times it has felt like a tropical system and nothing like our typical summer thunderstorms. I don't see anything on the models I check, but this has the "feel" of something that could become a tropical storm. I suggest it may end up with a name.

 

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c4GhGLK.gif&key=7a1011db95ac7edda994eb277720a198096d0f79178b114ef6446d96b58bd16c  

Dont get too excited. thats the  GFS  they have that still shows fantasy  storms. Maybe  in winter  it will be set to show  lots  of  blizzards.

 

Incorrect. That is the non-operational parallel GFS model that would become the GFS version 16 operational in 2021 if there are no hitches. It is still in experimental phase. The current operational GFS is version 15.

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19 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
36 minutes ago, ldub23 said:
c4GhGLK.gif&key=7a1011db95ac7edda994eb277720a198096d0f79178b114ef6446d96b58bd16c
 
Dont get too excited. thats the  GFS  they have that still shows fantasy  storms. Maybe  in winter  it will be set to show  lots  of  blizzards.

Incorrect. That is the non-operational parallel GFS model that would become the GFS version operational in 202 if there are no hitches. It is still in experimental phase. The current operational GFS is version 15.

Still shows  lots  of storms.

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So in other words, they are "upgrading" the GFS again just a year after the FV3 became operational?
I left off the '1'. Spring 2021 is tentative for upgrade if there are no issues.

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Still shows  lots  of storms.

It's actually performed better at TCG than the current operational. Yes, every once in a while a storm will form in the mid-range due to a feature in the pattern change. However, the current operationals are missing the mark too frequently on near-term TCG potential. Like 99L for example. The current para is the only one that has a TC. Perhaps that fails to occur and it misses the mark. But the operationals have chosen poorly with genesis environmental fields. We shall see.

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8 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

My mother still talks about Hazel.  She remembers those big, round metal trashcans they had back then flying down the street in her Cheverly, MD neighborhood.

Hazel resulted in the largest one day rainfall total ever measured in Toronto (YYZ). There was some serious flooding in the city’s west end and a total of 35 deaths. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Hazel_in_Canada

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2 hours ago, Prospero said:

Any thoughts on this potential system?

image.thumb.png.789783dab9224e70ccf99976cbc0c173.png

I can say here in Gulfport, Florida, we've had over 3 inches of rain since last night with more on the way with gusts over 30 mph. At times it has felt like a tropical system and nothing like our typical summer thunderstorms. I don't see anything on the models I check, but this has the "feel" of something that could become a tropical storm. I suggest it may end up with a name.

 

That area is now designated as Invest 90L. It has a high chance of development and it has in fact been showing up on the guidance, just not as a surface reflection. Looking like it’s going out to sea. This region has been a hotbed for activity this season. 

7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

That pattern tho..

giphy.gif?cid=6c09b952e11bcb2fdfd96a33d0
 

Oh boy. We tried to tell ‘em.

What about the dry air tho? :lol: 

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2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

So in other words, they are "upgrading" the GFS again just a year after the FV3 became operational?

God forbid they upgrade the GFS every couple years...that truly sounds terrible and I hope they rethink that strategy...

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15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That area is now designated as Invest 90L. It has a high chance of development and it has in fact been showing up on the guidance, just not as a surface reflection.

Anywhere from 4 to 6 inches of rain or more today and some gusts over 50 mph in the Tampa Bay area. It likely will continue somewhat for the rest of the night.  There is some substance to whatever it is, and does look like it will go out to sea.

At times as the squalls came through it definitely felt like a tropical storm, even though it didn't look like much on sats.

Will be something to watch as it moves off the coast.

 

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3 hours ago, Prospero said:

Any thoughts on this potential system?

image.thumb.png.789783dab9224e70ccf99976cbc0c173.png

I can say here in Gulfport, Florida, we've had over 3 inches of rain since last night with more on the way with gusts over 30 mph. At times it has felt like a tropical system and nothing like our typical summer thunderstorms. I don't see anything on the models I check, but this has the "feel" of something that could become a tropical storm. I suggest it may end up with a name.

 

The models have it a weak system that eases out to sea off the Carolina coast. 

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1 hour ago, Prospero said:

Anywhere from 4 to 6 inches of rain or more today and some gusts over 50 mph in the Tampa Bay area. It likely will continue somewhat for the rest of the night.  There is some substance to whatever it is, and does look like it will go out to sea.

At times as the squalls came through it definitely felt like a tropical storm, even though it didn't look like much on sats.

Will be something to watch as it moves off the coast.

 

From the last visible images it looked like a surface low was trying to get together rather quickly. Could be one that’s fun to watch.

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16 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Ummm.....Marco already was a hurricane in the GOM.....before Laura...

Shows how much it was forgotten by me since it was sheared to pieces in the GOM before Laura :lol:

Guess it will be Nana then

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