• Member Statistics

    16,113
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    dhubbard
    Newest Member
    dhubbard
    Joined
Windspeed

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Recommended Posts

Despite its fast motion, 99L appears to be organizing the past few hours. There is curved banding in the south and east envelope with convection. Near the center of the broad circulation, convective pulsing is percolating. This should help tighten a vorticity maximum and TD15 should get classifed soon thereafter by this evening. I think this does develop and makes landfall as a named storm. It is hauling through. If it can develop by this evening, it will have a shot at hurricane intensity prior to landfall, otherwise it may run out of time.
d9d4d4358cff756412ad712df2c305d5.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Things  looking quite dead. I think the average ace  per storm is 3 and  if  90 gets  named that will drop a  bit. Tutt coming  back with a vengeance(MDR has been dead regardless) pretty  much means there  is  no peak. 5/1/0 rest  of  season, though who knows  how  many 1.0 ace storms will get  named. If the  MJO ever was favorable you wouldnt  know  it. If there  is another  major the  best  chance will be sept 20-oct10 east  of  bermuda. Once again, SST'S(which got  everyone to go overboard  on ace) are the  least  important factor. I also think the season will end rather early, around oct10, with a  below avg ace season

  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Visible suggests a better surface circulation than last night. Still needs better centralized convection to get a vort to ramp up however 99L is likely nearing classification. Perhaps by 5 pm?b4e05dfc76849322343d9098e4c69572.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Likewise visible also suggests 90L has a closed low level circulation. Just needs increased convection to get classified though recon could find winds sufficient for a TD sooner. This probably gets a name by tomorrow.

 

011b9ce7623001474da4ab5148e08fa0.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Likewise visible also suggests 90L has a closed low level circulation. Just needs increased convection to get classified though recon could find winds sufficient for a TD sooner. This probably gets a name by tomorrow.

 

011b9ce7623001474da4ab5148e08fa0.gif

This one will be  named, 99 doubtful

  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could see 2 more named storms in the next 12-24 hours. 99L has some potential to make a run at becoming a hurricane. 90 will be a wave producer on the east coast. Both look robust at the moment for invests. Hopefully 99L continues its rapid pace of movement to decrease strengthening and also flooding issues where it makes landfall in Central America 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ldub23 said:
Things  looking quite dead. I think the average ace  per storm is 3 and  if  90 gets  named that will drop a  bit. Tutt coming  back with a vengeance(MDR has been dead regardless) pretty  much means there  is  no peak. 5/1/0 rest  of  season, though who knows  how  many 1.0 ace storms will get  named. If the  MJO ever was favorable you wouldnt  know  it. If there  is another  major the  best  chance will be sept 20-oct10 east  of  bermuda. Once again, SST'S(which got  everyone to go overboard  on ace) are the  least  important factor. I also think the season will end rather early, around oct10, with a  below avg ace season

 

@ldub23 be out in the Atlantic MDR like...


a9891b04769e62cbcdb3d0aa9644c765.gif

  • Like 2
  • Haha 25
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AF305 is en route to 90L and should reach the system around 3 PM EDT. Should have a better idea of what's going on at the surface.

Recon is scheduled for 99L tomorrow if deemed necessary.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over 
the central Caribbean Sea has changed little in organization since 
yesterday, and satellite-derived winds indicate that there is no 
closed circulation.  However, environmental conditions are expected 
to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while 
the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in Jamaica, 
Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor 
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is located about 135 miles southeast of 
Wilmington, North Carolina. This system continues to become better 
organized, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today 
or tonight while the system moves northeastward, near but 
offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States and then 
away from land.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
en route to investigate the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a 
day or two. Gradual development of this system will be possible 
through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the 
far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting thread on downstream pattern in the mid-to-longe range. Possible TUTT developing over the central Atlantic that would support suppression of CV and MDR development; however, caveats with strong Canadian Maritimes ridging (this has been touched upon the last few days) in place. Essentially anything weak due to the negative influences of shear and subsidence that survives to 60ºW could potentially move into a more favorable environment; furthermore with a block in place, this would increase risk to the SE and ECONUS as systems would be driven between to two large scale synoptic features. Plenty of time to watch this evolve. Interestingly, the EPS and GEFS ensembles still show a ramp up in MDR activity the second week of September and peak. I'd imagine anything far east would be steered into the central Atlantic but anything that remains weak would slip under a rather strong NW Atlantic Ridge in such a pattern.

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12Z PARA GEFS still really likes the idea of a system on either side of Florida around mid month.

gfs-ememb-para_lowlocs_us_60.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recon found a closed circulation in 90L but the wind obs are rather weak, around 20-25 kts at best. The circulation does have organized banding in the low-level cloud field, but considering that convection is still rather unimpressive overall at present, NHC may hold off on classification for now. It'll be close.

recon_AF305-01EEA-INVEST_timeseries.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fascinating to think how tropical cyclones in one basin could influence the eventual track of others 180 degrees around the planet. They just seem too far away for that to be possible, but it happens.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Fascinating to think how tropical cyclones in one basin could influence the eventual track of others 180 degrees around the planet. They just seem too far away for that to be possible, but it happens.

Every season we watch these TC influenced amplifications occur. They can cause big shifts in mid-to-long range modeling for our portion of the northern hemisphere. When strong typhoons enter into the polar jet at just the right motion and angle it can really buckle and amplify wave patterns downstream. Generally adiabatic cooling of moist equatorial airmasses can release some potent kinetic energy, increasing flow rates and strong waves within the jet stream that may lead to strong amplified trough versus ridge patterns across North America and the N. Atlantic. Likewise, intense Atlantic hurricanes do the same for Europe and N. Asia. We can already see hints of a such a setup in the mid-to-long range with an amplified Central Canada / N. High Plains trough vs a strong amplified NW Atlantic / Canadian Maritimes ridge.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Fascinating to think how tropical cyclones in one basin could influence the eventual track of others 180 degrees around the planet. They just seem too far away for that to be possible, but it happens.

A butterfly flaps its wings...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

12Z PARA GEFS still really likes the idea of a system on either side of Florida around mid month.

gfs-ememb-para_lowlocs_us_60.png

Where is this on weather models?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

Where is this on weather models?

Don't look at the op models this far out 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That’s an ensemble though 
Right, but the person was asking why it wasn't showing up on the "main" models. That range is of course ensemble territory. It's all good WX-Double-O-7.
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Right, but the person was asking why it wasn't showing up on the "main" models. That range is of course ensemble territory. It's all good WX-Double-O-7.
Eh excuse me, sir, you were thinking the same thing I was. Everything is good.c82b778397a893866f34738cc7ab25c4.gif
  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s an ensemble though 

I'm responding to the person where he said about the models not showing anything. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.