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Windspeed

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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31 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

lol... yeah. I am not innocent of this. But unfortunately it's all we've got, good or bad. There is no doubt the operationals in general have struggled this season missing TCGs until they're already occurring in real time. Now if they miss on actual modeled TCGs and none or very few actually pan out IRL, well then...

:facepalm:

You’re right. All we have to talk about is models. I just think it’s funny, that’s all. 

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Oh it’s hilarious, but they’ve sucked in one direction. They weren’t showing genesis. Now that they are, and in a more emphatic way, maybe we’re about to be off to the races.

Or not :lol: 

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12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Oh it’s hilarious, but they’ve sucked in one direction. They weren’t showing genesis. Now that they are, and in a more emphatic way, maybe we’re about to be off to the races.

Or not :lol: 

It does look like there is going to be a lot of activity in the next 2 weeks plus. The question is where they end up going. To my untrained eye based on the Maritime High it would appear that any threat to the EC would be from the Carolinas or Mid Atlantic northward. Is my thinking correct on that?

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1 hour ago, bigtenfan said:

It does look like there is going to be a lot of activity in the next 2 weeks plus. The question is where they end up going. To my untrained eye based on the Maritime High it would appear that any threat to the EC would be from the Carolinas or Mid Atlantic northward. Is my thinking correct on that?

So it depends. Generally yes, if you have that kind of a robust high in the maritime region/western Atlantic that’s going to be an EC threat pattern. Where specifically is likely to depend on the exact strength and orientation of that ridge. 

However, the placement of a low matters too. If there’s a system trapped under the ridge in a place like the Bahamas or western/central Caribbean, that’s an EC/GOM threat. If there’s a system in the central Atlantic on the eastern edge of a ridge, it can still escape OTS because there’s likely to be a weakness there.

These things aren’t going to be resolved in the near term, but as we’ve seen over the course of the season, ridging has been strong and persistent.

 

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13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

So it depends. Generally yes, if you have that kind of a robust high in the maritime region/western Atlantic that’s going to be an EC threat pattern. Where specifically is likely to depend on the exact strength and orientation of that ridge. 

However, the placement of a low matters too. If there’s a system trapped under the ridge in a place like the Bahamas or western/central Caribbean, that’s an EC/GOM threat. If there’s a system in the central Atlantic on the eastern edge of a ridge, it can still escape OTS because there’s likely to be a weakness there.

These things aren’t going to be resolved in the near term, but as we’ve seen over the course of the season, ridging has been strong and persistent.

 

Thanks so much for your response

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Models are all over the place but the Euro likely has the best handle on things. 

We'll see if there's any consistency today, of course anything beyond a few days is a total crapshoot.

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Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea.

Absolutely Agree!

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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Choo Choo

ecmwf_mslpa_atl_10.png

I was just looking at this. The GFS doesn't show it like that but the EURO sure sends the trains down the track.

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15 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The people who would be getting their houses destroyed on the coast probably wouldn't agree 

We have to think about more than the coast. Iowans with no connection to the ocean got derechoed and they must not be forgotten. 

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New orange for the wave over Africa. New lemon for @the ghost of leroy storm. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Nana, inland near the Guatemala-Mexico border, and on 
Tropical Depression Omar, located about 400 hundred miles northeast 
of Bermuda.

Shower activity has increased today in association with a 
non-tropical area of low pressure located over the north-central 
Atlantic, about 625 miles south of Cape Race Newfoundland. Some 
slight subtropical or tropical development of this system is 
possible before it reaches cooler waters later on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Gradual development is possible early next week once 
the larger tropical wave located off of the coast of Africa passes 
to the north of the system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located off the coast of west Africa is merging with 
another disturbance located a couple of hundred miles south of the 
Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in an extensive area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Development of this system is expected 
to be slow during the next couple of days while it moves west- 
northwestward at about 15 mph.  After that, a tropical depression is 
more likely to form early next week over the central tropical 
Atlantic where environmental conditions are forecast to be more 
favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of 
Africa over the weekend.  An area of low pressure is expected to 
form from the wave early next week. Gradual development of this low 
is then expected, and a tropical depression could form while it 
moves generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

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Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea.

I mean part of an active season, especially hyperactive is your general September central Atlantic hurricanes. They usually produce a big chunk of ACE and most of the hyperactive years have them. I just enjoy tracking, attempting forecasts and observing the outcomes. Whether they are land threats or not matters little to me. Though I would prefer they avoid populated areas. A big CV hurricane is my favorite even if it threatens nothing but shipping. Aside from Dorian, Lorenzo was an incredible storm to track as well last year. Perhaps we'll get a few beasts over the next month.
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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:
7 hours ago, NJwx85 said:
Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea.

 

I mean part of an active season, especially hyperactive is your general September central Atlantic hurricanes. They usually produce a big chunk of ACE and most of the hyperactive years have them. I just enjoy tracking, attempting forecasts and observing the outcomes. Whether they are land threats or not matters little to me. Though I would prefer they avoid populated areas. A big CV hurricane is my favorite even if it threatens nothing but shipping. Aside from Dorian, Lorenzo was an incredible storm to track as well last year. Perhaps we'll get a few beasts over the next month.

Yeah I'm with you.  I would rather see a monster cat 4 or 5 storm that remains out to see, than mayhem/destruction related to landfall.  This is why I find the east pac season fun to track.

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Michael is my ideal hurricane. Fast moving, landfall at 90 degrees, in an area thats not too populated, in the middle of the day, clear eye/intensifying into landfall, in the US, the list goes on.

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I already look back on this hurricane season as memorable. There were hardly any lulls, even early storms like Cristobal and Gonzalo were exciting enough to track. Hurricane Hanna was a nasty landfall in Texas in July with a pressure in the 970s. Hurricane Isaias surprised us with the last minute intensification before striking North Carolina and causing impressive storm surge in Myrtle Beach. Then we had a devastating high-end Cat 4 landfall on the North Gulf Coast in August.

To me, that's a memorable hurricane season, and I think we likely have a few more memorable storms to go. I just hope we don't exhaust the name list too quickly, who the hell wants to track a late-season Caribbean storm named "Eta".

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26 minutes ago, Prospero said:

This would keep us all busy...

image.thumb.png.795a61314dc344d860d9f58f9f22de80.png

The crazy thing about that run, well besides 3 hurricanes lined up in a row, is it doesn’t landfall any of them haha 

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50 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

How does the one in the Gulf not landfall??

It screws around offshore ala Juan 1985. 

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10 hours ago, Windspeed said:
16 hours ago, NJwx85 said:
Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea.

 

I mean part of an active season, especially hyperactive is your general September central Atlantic hurricanes. They usually produce a big chunk of ACE and most of the hyperactive years have them. I just enjoy tracking, attempting forecasts and observing the outcomes. Whether they are land threats or not matters little to me. Though I would prefer they avoid populated areas. A big CV hurricane is my favorite even if it threatens nothing but shipping. Aside from Dorian, Lorenzo was an incredible storm to track as well last year. Perhaps we'll get a few beasts over the next month.

Over the years some big offshore CV hurricanes have killed more people on the east coast then many would believe. Rip currents caused by the resultant swell are real killers. Some classics like Gabrielle in 89 had double digit deaths.

Large battering waves can also cause erosion and beach washovers. Bill in 08 caused a ton of damage at Jones Beach NY where I have been a life guard for 22 years. The East Coast with it’s sandy beaches is very prone to erosion caused by high energy long period swells. I have watched the beach washed clean (all snow fencing destroyed) under sunny sky’s on numerous occasions. 
Moral of the story, I find the term fish storm annoying. 

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20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Over the years some big offshore CV hurricanes have killed more people on the east coast then many would believe. Rip currents caused by the resultant swell are real killers. Some classics like Gabrielle in 89 had double digit deaths.

Large battering waves can also cause erosion and beach washovers. Bill in 08 caused a ton of damage at Jones Beach NY where I have been a life guard for 22 years. The East Coast with it’s sandy beaches is very prone to erosion caused by high energy long period swells. I have watched the beach washed clean (all snow fencing destroyed) under sunny sky’s on numerous occasions. 
Moral of the story, I find the term fish storm annoying. 

We were at Carolina beach near Wilmington back in June. It was a wet week with a ULL to our southwest and we had a long onshore flow. It chewed that beach to pieces and I knew it was gonna be bad of we got a cane. Luckily Iseias wasnt too bad of a storm.

 

Screenshot_20200614-184020_Gallery.jpg

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slp33.pngThe real GFS basically  shows nothing considering peak is  going to be gone  soon. Shows yet another struggling storm. It does give more weight to my idea that  if there  is another  major this season it will recurve well east  of  bermuda. Atlantic still very  hostile but  i still think sept 20-oct  10 will have a chance of  2 well formed storms at the same time, then the season comes to an end. Even JB isnt tweeting about the atlantic. Wait, JB  just tweeted about  2 threats to the  US  next week.

Deja Vu all over again? http://Weatherbell.com looking at. 2 features not even x'd that we think could develop over the next 5 days and may impact US next week, Join us on the Raging weatherbull on http://weatherbell.com premium. Unlike Nana and Omar, could impact US
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slp33.png&key=0e8cbfcc060865b6cbc736e349a83ec89b360c7f22dff5974d4c507c705884d2The real GFS basically  shows nothing considering peak is  going to be gone  soon. Shows yet another struggling storm. It does give more weight to my idea that  if there  is another  major this season it will recurve well east  of  bermuda. Atlantic still very  hostile but  i still think sept 20-oct  10 will have a chance of  2 well formed storms at the same time, then the season comes to an end. Even JB isnt tweeting about the atlantic. Wait, JB  just tweeted about  2 threats to the  US  next week. Joe Bastardi 45m Deja Vu all over again? http://Weatherbell.com looking at. 2 features not even x'd that we think could develop over the next 5 days and may impact US next week, Join us on the Raging weatherbull on http://weatherbell.com premium. Unlike Nana and Omar, could impact US

Dude the models suck. They kept trying to kill off Laura and Isias until a couple days before landfall. How did that work out?
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