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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Models are finally agreeing on a big uptick of MDR activity in about 8-10 days from now. 

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21 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Models are finally agreeing on a big uptick of MDR activity in about 8-10 days from now. 

Euro shows a  minor  low but the  06 GFS does show this

 

slp33.png

 

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Im sure they are  basing that  on the euro and GFS though if they go dead this aft then it wont  be so active. What is the real gfs showing at  12Z? not the  para.

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8 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Im sure they are  basing that  on the euro and GFS though if they go dead this aft then it wont  be so active. What is the real gfs showing at  12Z? not the  para.

Uh?

They aren't basing it off the models 

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Uh?

They aren't basing it off the models 

Might  be wise to do so. Compared to 06Z the GFS has went dead. I dont think the super favorable  conditions have arrived  by  sept  10. Very dead  for  peak. Maybe the hurricane showing  para  is  more active.

slp33.png

 

Euro does show 1 actual storm but  unless the euro and GFS agree i tend to discount  anything and  in any case this storm wont get close to the  US.

slp8.png

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Might  be wise to do so. Compared to 06Z the GFS has went dead. I dont think the super favorable  conditions have arrived  by  sept  10. Very dead  for  peak. Maybe the hurricane showing  para  is  more active.
slp33.png&key=4a861a35491ef9388fba51dbc2eb6b70c3d996115fb38e40e285b5e4d4f86a01
 
Euro does show 1 actual storm but  unless the euro and GFS agree i tend to discount  anything and  in any case this storm wont get close to the  US.
slp8.png&key=bcf317fc237d5d2e65d5a85d2037971e9cda6afd1f8be172a2e59dc0fd4661e4
lol... No, that would be unwise since they are legitimate tropical climatologists. Hugging operational model outputs isn't how long-range forecasting works. It isn't particularly great for debating long-range on a tropical message board either. But I digress...
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28 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Hugging operational model outputs isn't how long-range forecasting works. It isn't particularly great for debating long-range on a tropical message board either. But I digress...

My crystal ball is all over the place. October 13th/14th is a doozy in the Gulf, but landfall is vague with Teddy. The stars appear to hint at Texas...

 

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5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Uh?

They aren't basing it off the models 

is ldub the troll from Virginia "Rainstorm"?  I remember them from either WWBB or Eastern...that is pretty funny.

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14 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

is ldub the troll from Virginia "Rainstorm"?  I remember them from either WWBB or Eastern...that is pretty funny.

How insensitive. Rainstorm died. 

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18 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

How insensitive. Rainstorm died. 

Not really, but okay.

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There's always hurricane action on Labor Day. I remember my dad grilling burgers in the outer bands of Hurricane Frances on Labor Day. 

This year doesn't look like anything will hit on Labor Day itself, but models suggesting that Cape Verde wave will be getting threatening around then. 

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A couple GEFS Para members have something developing near NW Cuba and moving into west FL next week.   One has a 957mb low moving into Tampa.

There is some pretty low shear in the area if an initial disturbance can get going.

 

That area is the only  threat  to the US within the next 7-10 days, anything else is further away.

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Currently 2020 is the 9th most active season through the end of August in the satellite era when using ACE index with the number at about 42 so far.  With "peak" still a week away and initial ACE forecasts of 130 to 160 there's still a lot of time for some big things to happen if those forecasts pan out.  One thing I'm thinking about is we are just now entering "major hurricane season".  The higher percentage of majors occur from now moving forward.  Sure it's not been exciting from a "headlines" standpoint so far but as others have said we're just now heading into the active period that statistically has the highest threat of stronger storms.  Now if we do get 3 or 4 more majors with an ACE of 150 for the season this year along with weaker storms and the majors all are fish,will folks still be saying this season's a bust?  Probably lol...... 

Cat 3 by month

afc79167e5357879b11657df70e4508b.png

Cat 4 by month

32a04a621c0f107a2e895288a79e2ed6.png

Cat 5 by month

24c73a842912d562be9371b439084207.png

 

ace2020828.JPG

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42 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

There's always hurricane action on Labor Day. I remember my dad grilling burgers in the outer bands of Hurricane Frances on Labor Day. 

Francis, September 5, 2004. Charlie had just passed to the south close enough for me to watch roof tiles and window shutters fly down the street like newspapers in Sun City Center. Francis was huge and blew wind and poured rain, and was impressive to watch and listen to. Francis was affecting the entire Florida peninsula. Jeanne came by soon after in the middle of the night and it was after it moved over the Gulf that trees blew down and power went out for days. It woke me up around 3 AM as it was trying to suck a window A/C unit from my bedroom making a horrible whistling sound.

I grabbed a sat pic soon of Francis after as the eye was over us on the 5th (see below).

Hurricane Francis9-5.jpg

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55 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Now if we do get 3 or 4 more majors with an ACE of 150 for the season this year along with weaker storms and the majors all are fish,will folks still be saying this season's a bust? 

I think I'll be saying it was an exciting year and a win (from this point forward). We've had enough landfalls already that people are going to be dealing with a very long time.

I love a storm as much or more than anybody, but I'd be tickled pink with nothing but a record fish spinner that we can all talk about for years. (Might be a few ships out there not so thrilled...)

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On your marks...

two_atl_5d0.png.6b6f474da350990955b2462c77f38c21.png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Hurricane Nana, approaching the coast of Belize, and on 
Tropical Depression Omar, located a few hundred miles north of 
Bermuda.

1. A broad area of low pressure located over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands continues to produce a small area of showers and 
thunderstorms.  This system is expected to interact with a tropical 
wave approaching from the east over the weekend, and it is unclear 
if the interaction will enhance or inhibit development of this 
system while it meanders over the eastern and central tropical 
Atlantic through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. A tropical wave located off the coast of west Africa is merging with 
another disturbance located a couple of hundred miles south of the 
Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in an extensive area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Development of this system is likely to 
be slow during the next couple of days while it moves west- 
northwestward at about 15 mph, and a tropical depression is more 
likely to form early next week over the central tropical Atlantic 
where environmental conditions are forecast to be more favorable 
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of 
Africa over the weekend.  An area of low pressure is expected to 
form from the wave, and some development of this low will be 
possible early next week while it moves generally westward over the 
far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg
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91L now has 40% 5 day odds. It’s interesting to see the guidance start to get bullish really for the first time since that big CCKW in early June. Steering pattern looks a bit more muddled than it did a few days ago but the next few weeks look very active.

Watch out in the Gulf/SW Atlantic for that leading wave too. It hasn’t been on the operationals explicitly but the signal has been fairly consistent on the ensembles. 

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To my point about the steering pattern—the recurving typhoons are critical to the upper level pattern over the CONUS, and consequently in the Atlantic. So don’t get too attached to the deterministic track stuff. A lot needs to be resolved this weekend.

 

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Ensembles and operationals into the mid-range are hinting at an outbreak in the MDR. Two to three long-tracking hurricanes, especially given any left-behind stalls would increase seasonal ACE substantially regardless of any land threats. We'll definitely have to watch for anything that might remain shallow and develop near 60°W with the amplified NW ridge could capture and drive a potential system into the Antilles, Bahamas or ECONUS. And as[mention=9730]WxWatcher007[/mention] allluded to, could be a surprise in the GOM and potential threat with an amplified pattern in place.

 

c740c99529c30d95a3f7b738527fcb8f.jpg

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1 minute ago, cheese007 said:

People will be screaming BUST if those end up a bunch of fish storms because of course they will

See how the models now have a few storms. People shouldn't  call bust looking at the long range  op models.

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Just now, cheese007 said:

People will be screaming BUST if those end up a bunch of fish storms because of course they will

If that ridging is in place in the Canadian Maritimes there are not going to be a lot of recurves

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8 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Individual storm threads: damn the models suck, they have been performing awfully, especially in the mid and long range

main tropical thread: look at these models!

You’re fantastic :lol: 

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Individual storm threads: damn the models suck, they have been performing awfully, especially in the mid and long range main tropical thread: look at these models!

lol... yeah. I am not innocent of this. But unfortunately it's all we've got, good or bad. There is no doubt the operationals in general have struggled this season missing TCGs until they're already occurring in real time. Now if they miss on actual modeled TCGs and none or very few actually pan out IRL, well then...

:facepalm:

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17 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

lol... yeah. I am not innocent of this. But unfortunately it's all we've got, good or bad. There is no doubt the operationals in general have struggled this season missing TCGs until they're already occurring in real time. Now if they miss on actual modeled TCGs and none or very few actually pan out IRL, well then...

:facepalm:

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