Windspeed

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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16 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

I’m used to it. It’s garbage. 

You got a cat 4 landfall into SW Louisiana in August and you still think the season is meh. Sorry that Laura wasn't deadly enough for ya...

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You got a cat 4 landfall into SW Louisiana in August and you still think the season is meh. Sorry that Laura wasn't deadly enough for ya...

Laura was the monkeys on a typewriter of this season. I’m not handing out cookies because 1/17th of the storms were good for 18 hours. 

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Four consecutive ENS runs with overwhelming support for a low latitude CV hurricane next week. Paulette and Rene both recurve. Paulette feels the WAR somewhat and recurves late. That may need to be watched for Bermuda. At any rate, the WAR is modeled with good ensemble support following exit and lift of the ECONUS shortwave. If the next AEW is as organized as modeled, it's going to have a shot at running the entirety of the MDR without a TUTT in place. There might be some backside upper influences of a stronger Paulette in the mid-range. However, with an EATL cutoff, most downstream upper 200 hPa flow would likely divert eastward. Simply put, next week may very well be prime time for a legitimate long-tracking major hurricane if it's going to be a reality this season. Additionally, the WPAC is entering a period of quiescence. Combining both quiet WPAC and EPAC basins, the N. Atlantic's upper tropospheric setup for the next 2-3 weeks likely supports several long-trackers. Additionally, the MJO is in a phase that is more supportive of eastern MDR development and would favor TCG becoming more frequent east of 50ºW. You do not need 200 hPa vorticity anomalies in the WATL if you already have established westward tracking TCs. Their anticyclones will take care of themselves barring negative TUTT/PV interaction. So as we progress through the next 2-3 weeks, tracking patterns are going to be key here. Where are the shortwaves versus ridges and what are their timings with potential TCs? We're going to have several recurves, no doubt. But if a few TCs form at low latitudes or time as a trough kicks out, I'd say the Antilles, Caribbean, Bahamas and SECONUS will have several threats by the time we enter October. Another thing to keep in mind is the pattern setup and MDR systems may last through mid-October. The past five years have seen later dates in MDR development versus climatological mean. Considering that we have a strengthening La Niña and positive AMO, this year may continue that trend.

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24 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Laura was the monkeys on a typewriter of this season. I’m not handing out cookies because 1/17th of the storms were good for 18 hours. 

We recently went seven consecutive years without a US landfalling hurricane. How you can sit here and complain about this season is beyond absurd. 

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We recently went seven consecutive years without a US landfalling hurricane. How you can sit here and complain about this season is beyond absurd. 

I complained about those too. It’s called being consistent. 

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

We recently went seven consecutive years without a US landfalling hurricane. How you can sit here and complain about this season is beyond absurd. 

This has been mentioned many times already but the problem was the crazy high pre- and mid-season forecasts hyping everyone up.  

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21 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

This has been mentioned many times already but the problem was the crazy high pre- and mid-season forecasts hyping everyone up.  

We still have six weeks of prime season left.

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12z GFS with the dirty side of 959 mb Sally going into Tampa Bay...gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_fh336-342.thumb.gif.aea5852dd7df5d5669d4266bad86136f.gif
If that run were to verify, the hypothetical Caribbean/EGOM system would've been Teddy. The GFS does a weird monsoonal split and breaks off the upper axis first that becomes Sally. It then allows the southwestern extension to close off into Teddy and it gets captured by strong ridging / easterly flow. Sally merges with CATL troughing. Teddy drives into the CONUS. Meh...looks gimmicky and likely to not model that way in future op runs with any consistency.
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35 minutes ago, senc30 said:

Well, the 12Z GFS landfalled in Southwest Florida on September 22nd. That was an interesting run.

I would call that more central west Florida

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20 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

See, when you say central west Florida I think of the panhandle between Panama City and Tallahassee 

 

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Just now, thunderbolt said:

 

 

20 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

See, when you say central west Florida I think of the panhandle between Panama City and Tallahassee. 

 

20 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

See, when you say central west Florida I think of the panhandle between Panama City and Tallahassee. 

The way I look at it is Naples is South Florida  Tampa Bay Central Florida Tallahassee is North Florida at least according to Latitude 

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38 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

The way I look at it is Naples is South Florida  Tampa Bay Central Florida Tallahassee is North Florida at least according to Latitude 

Everybody who lives here knows Tampa is Central Florida. Your post is correct. 

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4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

We recently went seven consecutive years without a US landfalling hurricane. How you can sit here and complain about this season is beyond absurd. 

I agree with the overall premise of this post, but am unaware of a time in modern records where we "went seven consecutive years without a U.S. landfalling hurricane " 

Suspect you meant a "major" hurricane...where the U.S. mainland experienced a remarkable twelve year drought of those.  

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8 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

I agree with the overall premise of this post, but am unaware of a time in modern records where we "went seven consecutive years without a U.S. landfalling hurricane " 

Suspect you meant a "major" hurricane...where the U.S. mainland experienced a remarkable twelve year drought of those.  

I stand corrected. It was 11 years without a major hurricane strike and a seven year stretch with four landfalling hurricanes, if you include Sandy.

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Euro and GFS this afternoon both coming  back to the reality  of  2020. Alot  of  weak sauce with conditions rather  hostile. Might  not  get  my major well east  of  bermuda if there  is another  one. Now they both give  poor  paulette a  miserable sheared dry  death and  conditions look horrid west  of  50 and rather marginal east  of  50. West  of  50 thats a  picture you expect to see  in the  1982 or  83 or 94 or  87, or  72 season. Classic el nino look. Poor  Paulette  is  about to get the dry air/shear  combo. It already  has the dry  prunish look. And  given the  predictions  of  Hyper-diaper Super-Duper conditions this season this  isnt the  picture  i would expect to see  on sept 08.

202009082010.gif

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2 hours ago, Windspeed said:
2 hours ago, cptcatz said:
12z GFS with the dirty side of 959 mb Sally going into Tampa Bay...gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_fh336-342.thumb.gif.aea5852dd7df5d5669d4266bad86136f.gif

If that run were to verify, the hypothetical Caribbean/EGOM system would've been Teddy. The GFS does a weird monsoonal split and breaks off the upper axis first that becomes Sally. It then allows the southwestern extension to close off into Teddy and it gets captured by strong ridging / easterly flow. Sally merges with CATL troughing. Teddy drives into the CONUS. Meh...looks gimmicky and likely to not model that way in future op runs with any consistency.

A few EPS members have the exact same scenario although it evolves differently up front. I agree though the ops will change a lot. 

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With satellites and  a generous  naming group of  forecasters 1926 might  have  had 35/20/12. Average  of  20 ace  per storm. 1893 as well. We are really  insulting 2005 in a  big way by making comparisons to this season.

EhVnZoVXsAI1ljG?format=jpg&name=medium

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51 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Euro and GFS this afternoon both coming  back to the reality  of  2020. Alot  of  weak sauce with conditions rather  hostile. Might  not  get  my major well east  of  bermuda if there  is another  one. Now they both give  poor  paulette a  miserable sheared dry  death and  conditions look horrid west  of  50 and rather marginal east  of  50. West  of  50 thats a  picture you expect to see  in the  1982 or  83 or 94 or  87, or  72 season. Classic el nino look. Poor  Paulette  is  about to get the dry air/shear  combo. It already  has the dry  prunish look. And  given the  predictions  of  Hyper-diaper Super-Duper conditions this season this  isnt the  picture  i would expect to see  on sept 08.

202009082010.gif

If it were El Nino the Pac would be going crazy...I've been counseling patience the last few weeks but even I have to start wondering now...where are the stadiums (apart from Laura's last few hours)?

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2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

If it were El Nino the Pac would be going crazy...I've been counseling patience the last few weeks but even I have to start wondering now...where are the stadiums (apart from Laura's last few hours)?

Im just saying the atlantic west  of  50 is  classic el nino. Even rene  looks dried  up though maybe as it turns north it will get stronger.

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1 hour ago, tiger_deF said:

Just pointing out that Laura was significantly stronger upon CONUS landfall than every single one of 2005's US threats 

By wind speed yes, by pressure no (Katrina was 920 mb at landfall).

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