Windspeed

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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10 hours ago, Windspeed said:
16 hours ago, NJwx85 said:
Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea.

 

I mean part of an active season, especially hyperactive is your general September central Atlantic hurricanes. They usually produce a big chunk of ACE and most of the hyperactive years have them. I just enjoy tracking, attempting forecasts and observing the outcomes. Whether they are land threats or not matters little to me. Though I would prefer they avoid populated areas. A big CV hurricane is my favorite even if it threatens nothing but shipping. Aside from Dorian, Lorenzo was an incredible storm to track as well last year. Perhaps we'll get a few beasts over the next month.

Over the years some big offshore CV hurricanes have killed more people on the east coast then many would believe. Rip currents caused by the resultant swell are real killers. Some classics like Gabrielle in 89 had double digit deaths.

Large battering waves can also cause erosion and beach washovers. Bill in 08 caused a ton of damage at Jones Beach NY where I have been a life guard for 22 years. The East Coast with it’s sandy beaches is very prone to erosion caused by high energy long period swells. I have watched the beach washed clean (all snow fencing destroyed) under sunny sky’s on numerous occasions. 
Moral of the story, I find the term fish storm annoying. 

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20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Over the years some big offshore CV hurricanes have killed more people on the east coast then many would believe. Rip currents caused by the resultant swell are real killers. Some classics like Gabrielle in 89 had double digit deaths.

Large battering waves can also cause erosion and beach washovers. Bill in 08 caused a ton of damage at Jones Beach NY where I have been a life guard for 22 years. The East Coast with it’s sandy beaches is very prone to erosion caused by high energy long period swells. I have watched the beach washed clean (all snow fencing destroyed) under sunny sky’s on numerous occasions. 
Moral of the story, I find the term fish storm annoying. 

We were at Carolina beach near Wilmington back in June. It was a wet week with a ULL to our southwest and we had a long onshore flow. It chewed that beach to pieces and I knew it was gonna be bad of we got a cane. Luckily Iseias wasnt too bad of a storm.

 

Screenshot_20200614-184020_Gallery.jpg

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slp33.pngThe real GFS basically  shows nothing considering peak is  going to be gone  soon. Shows yet another struggling storm. It does give more weight to my idea that  if there  is another  major this season it will recurve well east  of  bermuda. Atlantic still very  hostile but  i still think sept 20-oct  10 will have a chance of  2 well formed storms at the same time, then the season comes to an end. Even JB isnt tweeting about the atlantic. Wait, JB  just tweeted about  2 threats to the  US  next week.

Deja Vu all over again? http://Weatherbell.com looking at. 2 features not even x'd that we think could develop over the next 5 days and may impact US next week, Join us on the Raging weatherbull on http://weatherbell.com premium. Unlike Nana and Omar, could impact US
  • Weenie 5

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slp33.png&key=0e8cbfcc060865b6cbc736e349a83ec89b360c7f22dff5974d4c507c705884d2The real GFS basically  shows nothing considering peak is  going to be gone  soon. Shows yet another struggling storm. It does give more weight to my idea that  if there  is another  major this season it will recurve well east  of  bermuda. Atlantic still very  hostile but  i still think sept 20-oct  10 will have a chance of  2 well formed storms at the same time, then the season comes to an end. Even JB isnt tweeting about the atlantic. Wait, JB  just tweeted about  2 threats to the  US  next week. Joe Bastardi 45m Deja Vu all over again? http://Weatherbell.com looking at. 2 features not even x'd that we think could develop over the next 5 days and may impact US next week, Join us on the Raging weatherbull on http://weatherbell.com premium. Unlike Nana and Omar, could impact US

Dude the models suck. They kept trying to kill off Laura and Isias until a couple days before landfall. How did that work out?
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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

slp33.pngThe real GFS basically  shows nothing considering peak is  going to be gone  soon. Shows yet another struggling storm. It does give more weight to my idea that  if there  is another  major this season it will recurve well east  of  bermuda. Atlantic still very  hostile but  i still think sept 20-oct  10 will have a chance of  2 well formed storms at the same time, then the season comes to an end. Even JB isnt tweeting about the atlantic. Wait, JB  just tweeted about  2 threats to the  US  next week.

Deja Vu all over again? http://Weatherbell.com looking at. 2 features not even x'd that we think could develop over the next 5 days and may impact US next week, Join us on the Raging weatherbull on http://weatherbell.com premium. Unlike Nana and Omar, could impact US

A recurving major would be fantastic (as a surfer) but not where I would look. The MDR off Africa has clearly been a mess this season. If and when the next major forms it’s likely to be closer to land. The OHC is out there, we just need a storm to enter an area of low shear and it’s off to the races. I wouldn’t rule out a cat 5 

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Does anyone have any realistic ideas as to why the models have been so awful on genesis? Showing an El Nino-type year when we're already damn near exhausting the name list by Sept 4th?

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10 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Does anyone have any realistic ideas as to why the models have been so awful on genesis? Showing an El Nino-type year when we're already damn near exhausting the name list by Sept 4th?

It is not just TC genesis that the models are having trouble with. I think that their accuracy on winter storms has declined as well. Long range forecasting while never great has almost gone totally off the rails. If i had to take a guess I would say that the models are not yet skilled enough to properly handle the pace  of global warming. Many of the analogs that are being used are based on a cooler planet overall than we have now.

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1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

Does anyone have any realistic ideas as to why the models have been so awful on genesis? Showing an El Nino-type year when we're already damn near exhausting the name list by Sept 4th?

Just a thought, but all the storms  have  been very weak, even laura  for  a  long time. Maybe that  is a reason. And if they keep naming things  like  omar who knows how  many names, but  right  now the avg  is  3 ace  per storm. Ace  isnt  being  exhausted.

  • Weenie 4

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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

A recurving major would be fantastic (as a surfer) but not where I would look. The MDR off Africa has clearly been a mess this season. If and when the next major forms it’s likely to be closer to land. The OHC is out there, we just need a storm to enter an area of low shear and it’s off to the races. I wouldn’t rule out a cat 5 

Possible

  • Weenie 4

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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Possible

There  is  my possible  major  recurving  well east  of  bermuda.

slp33.png

  • Weenie 4

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Dude said with a straight face a few hours ago that the peak would be gone soon. It’s September 4th lol. He’s been talking about an El Niño pattern in the Atlantic when that’s objectively wrong.

Complain about the lack of ACE and eye candy until the end of time, but miss me with that foolishness. If you’re going to troll the season, troll it properly please. 

 

Oh for sure, he’s a moron.  But I was talking about the social aspect of all of this. If you downplay storms people will turn on you. Its the wxmann91 rule. 

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That wave south of Hispanola is the one that the GFS Para was calling to become a hurricane to slam into the northeast earlier this week but then backed off.  It's got some spin to it already....

a8b987bf-395f-4a82-8b85-a5938dbcd02b.jpg

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We’re freaks.

Don’t come for my storms and don’t come for my snow. 

They have been trolling a good 15-20 years if not longer

  • Weenie 2

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A question that is important for GOM coast communities; is there much as far as future models for storms that pop up and become powerful storms that are not waves from Africa?

I know here in the Tampa Bay area, we've woken up to TDs that formed overnight just off the coast with a big surprise to many of us.

Waves off of Africa are tracked for a long time, but GOM storms are short notice. Right?

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34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You know nothing is going on since the last post is 10 hours ago lol

No complaints from this Palm Beach County homeowner

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15 hours ago, Prospero said:

A question that is important for GOM coast communities; is there much as far as future models for storms that pop up and become powerful storms that are not waves from Africa?

I know here in the Tampa Bay area, we've woken up to TDs that formed overnight just off the coast with a big surprise to many of us.

Waves off of Africa are tracked for a long time, but GOM storms are short notice. Right?

Depends. Sometimes models can sniff out general disturbances or lower pressures in a region of the western Caribbean/Gulf. I've also seen invests pop up on the tail of a cold front. I'm not sure if models consider CCKW into their forecasts but I'd be surprised if we do not see an uptick in activity in this area 3rd week of Sept to mid Oct when a CCKW passes. 

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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weenie land 

gfs_mslpa_atl_58.png

Is the 1033 high moving to the East in this? If so, that would be a nice graze on the outer banks and then a strike in the Mid Atlantic.

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19 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Is the 1033 high moving to the East in this? If so, that would be a nice graze on the outer banks and then a strike in the Mid Atlantic.

It just misses the coast

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