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Everything posted by jpeters3

  1. Can we talk about the ET transition predicted by the GFS? GFS consistently showing an extratropical low near Iceland with a central pressure < 930 mb...
  2. I second the Ike comparison.
  3. Models are suggesting that shear will not abate until after landfall. Accordingly, they mostly hold at the current intensity. So I think the show is over in terms of RI prior to landfall. But sub 900 is still possible, right???
  4. Motion of the cirrus to the east of the system suggests continued easterly shear. This seems to be reflected in the RAMMB shear analysis, which shows about 15 kt currently.
  5. It's about #156,000 on the list of most important/relevant knowledge to my career. But I appreciate the "metfan" advice.
  6. Sub 900 is exceedingly unlikely, so it still doesn't make him an idiot for calling this one out. And what does not knowing when 12z is have to do with anything? I have a PhD in atmospheric science and I can't remember how 12z translates to local time on most days. Does that invalidate my meteorological knowledge?
  7. The outer circulation of gilbert was clearly much larger. Also, gilbert was undergoing an ERC when it made landfall, so probably had a much larger RMW at that point.
  8. Regardless of how much you think Jim Edds knows, a sub-900 hPa "call" is simply not based on science. Yes it is possible, but probably unlikely given (1) the relative infrequence of such events, and (2) the moderate shear currently affecting the system (going sub-900 requires pristine conditions).
  9. Here comes your full on crazy truck tire...
  10. Probably not when you're talking about the difference between cat 4 and 5, but certainly when you're talking about the difference between a Ts/weak disorganized hurricane and a major hurricane.
  11. SFMR winds in the NE quad somewhat unimpressive on that pass. Only ~ 105 kt.
  12. I had quite a chuckle at "full crazy truck tire" Next NOAA mission about to penetrate the core.
  13. In all seriousness, it looks like 2 more days of steady (if not decreasing by day 2) shear and steady SSTs in the 28-29 C range. So there is plenty of time.
  14. I was about to make fun of all the people who keep saying this will make a run for cat 5, but ADT is now solidly at 6.6 (corresponding to 130 kt) with Raw T at 7.0. Doesn't really have that far to go to pull a Lorenzo...
  15. There is also an AF plane going in, so we will have lots of data in the next few hours.
  16. Yeah, I honestly think it could go either way. There is clearly some shear affecting the CDO (making it asymmetric).
  17. Though, it doesn't look like that surface wind was related to a gust/mesovotex. The consistent readings of 130 kt aloft as well suggest to me that 115 kt might be a reasonable intensity.
  18. Looks like there is also a bit of a double wind maxima in the NE quadrant.
  19. Again, is anyone in this forum **really that surprised** to see a comment like this?? But to answer the question, no **that** (whatever "that" is) is probably not an eye clearing out.
  20. There were consistent radar echo tops > 60,000 ft this morning - not sure I have ever seen this in a TC.
  21. Hehehehe, i was waiting for this comment.
  22. Isn't this what the forum is all about???
  23. If a mesovortex produces sustained winds of 140 mph, than it's a 140 mph storm. However, meso-vortices are more likely to produce really fast instantaneous gusts, but not necessarily contribute a lot to the overall sustained winds. So people are probably discounting instantaneous gusts as being part of meso-vortices.