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Everything posted by jpeters3

  1. I was not. But I study thunderstorms/convection, so I I think that qualifies me as a "professional"
  2. We can agree on that. Devastating impacts regardless of whether it's a cat 4 or 5.
  3. You clearly don't understand what you are talking about. Just because someone doesn't work for the national hurricane center doesn't mean that they aren't a professional in the field.
  4. I am a meteorology professor. Why don't you go find me an observation from the previous two recon missions that supports a cat 5 intensity?
  5. First of all, what you posted doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but I gather that it was meant to be condescending. Second of all, I am a professional. Third of all, go look at the data yourself. Don't just keep saying I'm wrong. Edit: the last several missions are available to you on Tropical Tidbits.
  6. This portion of the track will probably be downgraded in post-storm analysis.
  7. I see 919, but with a 17 kt surface wind. This suggests 917ish.
  8. Not really sure, and the forecast discussion seemed to acknowledge that it probably wasn't actually a cat 5. But they have the same data we do, and it's pretty easy to look at the data yourself by simply paging back in this thread. The last recon mission did not obtain one observation that supported cat 5. The current recon is finding even weaker winds at the surface, which continues to support weakening. So before you tell everyone in the thread they are wrong, I suggest you browse the available information.
  9. The discussions of weakening were based on numerous recon observations. Suggest doing some reading before making these sorts of statements.
  10. Yes. For what it's worth, the pressure has probably ticked up a few MB since passes earlier today, which is also consistent with a slight weakening.
  11. 3 kt surface wind. You don't hit it more "dead on" than that!
  12. Recon suggests only cat 4 winds at the moment. This is what @Orangeburgwx was referring to
  13. oh yeah. Lorenzo was indeed boring. It spent like 5 seconds as cat 5?
  14. Most boring cat 5 since Matthew. Edit: is there a consensus on the most boring cat 5?
  15. I strongly doubt this upgrade, with literally no evidence (besides clearly biased RAW T) to support cat 5. Though, if we could my egregious prediction of 882 mb for central pressure on that one, maybe they will upgrade it
  16. It's quite likely that it was above the 155 mph hump in earlier recon passes. There are some hints in the IR of a bit of core degradation relative to the peak earlier this morning.
  17. Regardless of whether there is an upgrade right now, I think there is enough data (i.e. multiple > 140 kt unflagged SFMR, pressure < 920 mb) for a post-season upgrade.
  18. Looks like this was a sonde that terminated prior to reaching the surface. Lowest sonde measured pressure was 920 (as indicated by @JasonOH's post).
  19. Eye sonde 928 mb at 17 kts. So ~925-927 sounds about right.
  20. Wait, 929 mb at 75 kt??? Something smells fishy here. Methinks they didn't hit the center.