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Everything posted by jpeters3

  1. Que in the parade of weenies that try arguing that every asymmetric eyewall is due to radar issues. Do we have to go through this every time? Yes, even intense TCs will have eyewall asymmetry. Pretty dead giveaway that its not a radar issues when it shows up from every radar site, and the weakness is on the upshear side of the storm. It does look like the weakness has become more pronounced in the last hour.
  2. I would be incredibly surprised if this one wasn't also an EF-4 (or 5).
  3. I'm guessing it will be assessed as a continuous track.
  4. Hard to tell - looks like it might be the same circulation.
  5. confirmed, still a wedge on humphree's cam.
  6. John Humphress has been periodically showing a massive wedge.
  7. this is literally a few minutes after someone called bust
  8. That storm just took a massive hike toward the right as well.
  9. Same thing happened on 4-12-20, prior to the series of long-tracked massive supercell tornadoes. Also, there's a wedge on the ground in eastern AL. TOO EARLY TO CALL BUST.
  10. Lol, just as the weenies start to call bust, the "junkvection line" starts to turn into supercells. Look at eastern MS
  11. That has to be one of the most stunning chaser feed moments i have seen. I thought he was going to get hit. Thing is moving like a freight train.
  12. https://www.facebook.com/abc3340/videos/301625501323080
  13. Looks like the classic enhanced inflow signature had developed that proceeds a big spin-up
  14. The mass of convection that is currently forming in southern MS is a fly in the ointment. This looks similar to what the toned-down 00 UTC HRRR showed, and might pose a junkvection-like mechanism for preventing more widespread stabilization.
  15. At this point we should be focused more on weather outcomes (e.g., strong/violent long tracked tornadoes) than SPC forecast content. Whether or not watches are PDS, or whether or not spc issues a 45% tornado probability, is somewhat irrelevant at this point. These things have no bearing on what will happen.
  16. The NAM nest is a bit out to lunch on early day convection, but has gone all in on the outbreak scenario.
  17. This is inconsequential. The discussion speaks for itself.
  18. There always is. Too much convection blowing up too early in the warm sector could substantially reduce supercell coverage, for instance.
  19. All of the latest ones are pretty darn concerning, eh?
  20. The ceiling is certainly a historic, and unfortunately destructive and deadly, outbreak.
  21. After the brief lull at 00Z, the HRRR is back to apocalypse mode. Pretty scary convergence of model guidance on what looks like a a worst case scenario...
  22. Fairly sure no observed sounding has ever looked like that
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