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Everything posted by jpeters3

  1. VWP from KINX is less than impressive in the lowest km. Actually, there is more ESRH for left-movers, which probably explains why the left split moving toward Columbus KS is holding its own.
  2. right, but the wind field will change completely as that happens. So that profile has no bearing on the severe threat further south the warm sector. I could probably find a thousand hodos a season north of WFs with 1000+ J/kg of 0-1 km SRH.
  3. Not sure why he tweeted this hodo. It's 61/56 at SGF, so clearly on the stable side of the WF.
  4. On the same token, I also believe that 5-20-19 should have been a high risk, despite having under-performed. 9 times out of teen, that type of setup will produce a widespread tornado outbreak.
  5. I strongly agree with SPC's decision. Hindsight is 20/20 - there were considerable question marks approaching this event (more than in the case of 5/20). 9/10 events with this many uncertainties approaching the event do not end up becoming major outbreaks. So I think it was a good forecasting call. A high risk would have been irresponsible, IMO.
  6. You are an evil satin worshiper for what you said. ;-) In all seriousness, sorry for being a dick.
  7. TDS and no warning. Edit: just issued.
  8. The Bassfield storm produced larger TDS signatures, stronger GTG velocity, and lofted debris higher. More impressive thank this. Oh, I see what you're saying. It's quite possible that this storm produced a violent tornado, but nothing has screamed "more impressive" than the southern MS storm from last weekend, much less countless other storms over the past few years.
  9. I think this is about to produce a massive tornado...
  10. There were several more impressive ones a week and a half ago in MS, and another one last weekend in MS.
  11. I think a new bigger meso is forming over winworth...
  12. Looks like there might be multiple areas of, at least weak, rotation
  13. I think it has been on the ground virtually the whole time. There haven't been any moments where the meso turned left and shed into the RFD. Obviously this isn't always how cycling happens, but the debris signature has been so consistent.
  14. I think they are basing it off of SPC's radar-based judgement.
  15. Low-level lapse rates are very small in this area (you can see the warm nose in the TAMU sounding). This might be an inhibiting factor.
  16. Watch this turn into a massive outbreak just to spite our well founded hesitance....
  17. Yeah, i think we are pretty much all in agreement here.
  18. I'm not very optimistic given this first round of CAM solutions. Most show a fairly large MCS overspreading the region early in the day, and a large removal of surface-based instability. Even in the 3 km NAM, the cells that erupt within the region where recovery occurs don't encounter very favorable low-level wind profiles, which is presumably due to the disruption of the LLJ by the proceeding MCS. Given the propensity for CAMs to under-estimated southward MCS extent, I think the MCS scenario would end up being a near total bust in terms of tornadoes.
  19. Yeah, the 12z run seems to indicate enough recovery for supercells behind the MCS. Though CAMs seem to always under-estimate the southward component of MCS motion.
  20. One thing to watch is that this run shows an early day MCS taking a substantial chunk out of the warm sector, which could end up being a bust mode.