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Everything posted by jpeters3

  1. I doubt this will have much of an effect on things. The really shallow high Td layer near the surface would "mix out" anyway as air parcels ascend through the boundary layer into updrafts. What really matters is the average PBL moisture.
  2. A lot to erode in that sounding. Particularly, -170 J/kg of MLCIN is pretty prohibitive. This is quite a bit higher that CAM progs at the same time. I suspect we might have trouble getting CI anywhere away from the front/triple point.
  3. FWIW, a TC expert whom I trust told me that the available information *does* suggest cat 5 intensity, and that an upgrade in post-storm analysis is likely. So you were correct, and I was wrong. Just thought I owed it to you to share that information.
  4. You're right. Saying "there is no evidence" was incorrect. There is *scant* evidence.
  5. That's quite the argument you put forward to support a tongue and cheek line. For the record, I want it to have been cat 5. Just tryin' to keep it real.
  6. And an upgrade in best track isn't going to happen without clear evidence.
  7. Could it have been cat 5? Yes. But is there obvious evidence pointing to cat 5 intensity? No. Ad-hoc arguments about pressure falls don't constitute obvious evidence.
  8. This is not enough evidence to warrant a cat 5 upgrade, and not enough to say "we all know it was cat 5." We don't, and the objective evidence suggests to the contrary. What would be enough evidence? ADT number near or above 140 kt + flight-level winds high enough + SFMR >> 140 kt. We didn't get that. No cat 5. Sorry. You can wishcast all you want, but that doesn't change things. Obviously NHC experts agree.
  9. All you did was repost a twitter post where someone is also hand waving. Eyeballing the wind-pressure relationship in this plot (which shows substantial scatter for a given pressure), an argument could be made for anywhere between 130-130 kt.
  10. You are objectively out to lunch. SFMR has a known high bias and readings were inconsistent with flight level winds. Dropsonde probably hit a gust/meso-vortex. There is no double wind max. Intensity is not based on single measurements - it's based on multiple measurements telling the same story. And Pressure vs wind is not linear. Also, winds are up from the higher pressure yesterday. Sorry. It's just silly when you all think you are smarter than the NHC forecasters. Why would the arbitrarily low-ball the intensity?
  11. Also, recon did not find a secondary wind maxima, which suggest that the current intensity fluctuation is not the onset of an ERC.
  12. Literally no evidence to suggest that this made cat 5 intensity. ADT peaked at 130 kt (consistent with NHC CI). Pressure is more typical of cat 4. And no, they are not going to upgrade it in a post storm analysis with 0 evidence. I should add, ADT was remarkably consistent with what the recon found yesterday.
  13. My thoughts exactly. Probably 942/130 kt. I'm guessing based on the satellite presentation that the intensity peak occurred a few hours before the recon arrival.
  14. FWIW, ADT is now up to 6.1 (Raw to 6.4), which supports ~115-125 kts. So I'd guess 120 kt, 140 mph for current intensity.
  15. Thanks. I never thought to look for recon data on these sites.
  16. Anyone else having trouble getting onto Tropical Tidbits? Any other sits with good real-time recon data?
  17. Latest few MW scans suggest that a concentric eyewall structure is trying to form:
  18. Que in the parade of weenies that try arguing that every asymmetric eyewall is due to radar issues. Do we have to go through this every time? Yes, even intense TCs will have eyewall asymmetry. Pretty dead giveaway that its not a radar issues when it shows up from every radar site, and the weakness is on the upshear side of the storm. It does look like the weakness has become more pronounced in the last hour.
  19. I would be incredibly surprised if this one wasn't also an EF-4 (or 5).
  20. I'm guessing it will be assessed as a continuous track.
  21. Hard to tell - looks like it might be the same circulation.
  22. confirmed, still a wedge on humphree's cam.
  23. John Humphress has been periodically showing a massive wedge.
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