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Everything posted by jpeters3

  1. The second radar site was to the west. Almost due west. I can't believe we are still having this argument. Nobody has even looked to see where KHGX is.
  2. The argument is somewhat moot, because my speculation that the strengthening would stop was clearly wrong. In any case, mark my word, the last words I will utter on my death bed are "It was not attenuation!!!! I swear it!!!"
  3. second radar is KHGX, which is almost due west.
  4. Everyone is speculating, even Rick Knabb. I'm having a conversation with another professor who is an expert in TCs, and he agrees with my explanation of the phenomena. I also maintain that nobody has explained why the features shows up in the same spot from two different radars. I guess we'll see if the VDM contains any remarks.
  5. Explain this to me then. How does "attenuation" show up in the same location from two completely different vantage points. From KHGX, it should be on the eastern side, but it shows up on the south?
  6. It is what it is. There are light echoes there for certain. But just look at the northern semicircle. This vorticity maximum isn't weakening anytime soon. It might have reached a steady-state. Good enough. Unfortunately the damage has already been cemented for landfall impacts. Yeah, I think the point of my original post was missed. It seemed to have been interpreted as, "this has an open eyewall, it is going to weaken into an open wave before landfall." In reality, i was just making an observation and speculating as to the influence of this observation on future strengthening. To set the record straight: 2 images from different radars at the same time. Along the line I have drawn, which goes from the eye out into the open air outside the storm, there are no echoes > 15 dBz.
  7. There are clearly several regions on the south end where echoes drop below 20 dBz though. So the intense eyewall convection is fairly degraded down there. I'm not saying that recon will find this region completely devoid of convection and bright moonlight shining in, and these asymmetric eyewall structures are somewhat common in event intense hurricanes. All i'm saying is that this may but a damper on continued strengthening. But this seemed to have ignited a massive controversy.
  8. For all you idiots who are acting like I just insulted a member of your family, here is the KHGX view which shows the same structure. These ignorant comments about radar attenuation need to stop.
  9. This is is not attenuation for the last time. It shows up on multiple radars in the same location. Rain doesn't typically attenuate WSR88Ds at this range.
  10. IR satellite does not tell you about eyewall structure in nearly as much detail as radar.
  11. It's not radar issues. We've been over this.
  12. Southern eyewall appears to have eroded completely. Show might be over in terms of strengthening.
  13. That's probably it. There was a weak signature in IR. I have never heard of this before today.
  14. There is obviously still time, and pressure seems to still be falling. New recon is inbound, so lets see what they find in the NW quad. But I doubt there will even be a post-season upgrade unless there is something unflagged > 140 combined with dropsonde data that at least implicitly supports this intensity.
  15. There were numerous indicators of > 140 kt in the case of Michael. We haven't seen that yet here.
  16. I agree with this. Upgrade to cat 5 probably means confident SFMR > 140, perhaps with dropsonde support. We definitely don't have that yet.
  17. He clearly meant the first landfall in LA.
  18. There needs to be an all encompassing "you're just f**ed" warning.
  19. SFMR on the northern side getting MIGHTY close to 140 kt
  20. The 155 mph cat4 vs cat5 on PR is quibbling, given that the threshold for cat 5 is 157 mph.
  21. Yeah i'm with you. Saying the outflow looks restricted seems like grasping for straws at this point. Satellite presentation looks better than ever. ADT holding at T6.5, as high as ever.