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Everything posted by jpeters3

  1. Unfortunately you can't view KULM on radarscope...
  2. trying to fire ahead of main line
  3. This is a very good point. The 15 UTC HRRR is a little too far north, a little slow, and seems to be a little too discrete with this QLCS convection. Hard to tell what downstream impacts this might have, but it make me a bit skeptical of that solution.
  4. worth noting that a robust ofb is evident along the SE flank of the line. This means that tail end spin ups along the line are unlikely.
  5. 15 UTC HRRR is breaking out a line of supercells ahead of the QLCS in the volatile part of the warm sector....
  6. Obviously SPC outlooks have no impact on what will actually happen, but it's fun to speculate on what the SPC forecasters will do.
  7. Though, the HRRR solution is showing a lot of this activity (aside from the huge UH tracks with the QLCS) along the tail end of the line. So far, this region as been fairly inactive. Edit: after another look, I'm having trouble interpreting what the model is showing. At one glance, I can convince myself that it shows widespread supercell coverage. At another glance, I can convince myself that it's just showing a QLCS mess. Either way, it seems every probable that numerous QLCS tornadoes will happen today given this morning's trend, and that some of them might be strong. That alone, along with the more uncertain warm sector, might be enough to warrant an upgrade to HIGH.
  8. It's also worthy of note that the sounding is nearly moist neutral below 2.5 km, so it's likely that also helped things. Parcels in moist neutral environments should have no resistance to ascent, and do not experience deleterious effects from entrainment. Could be a totally different story for a sub-saturated environment with a similar low-level lapse rate.
  9. Seems like this was a fairly "hefty" QLCS tornado....
  10. Here is a forecast sounding from the RAP that is probably representative of what the QLCS is ingesting.
  11. OK, so it seems like intense QLCS tornadoes are on the table today...
  12. I don't envy the forecaster seat in these types of events.
  13. Yeah, this seems like it should stay MOD (at least for the next outlook). Only scenario I see for an upgrade to HIGH is if there is the beginning of an outbreak underway.
  14. I don't think it's trending anywhere right now. Same story as yesterday. High ceiling, but potential for bust as well.
  15. FYI, my former PHD advisor's group at CSU runs a 4 km WRF that uses GFS as LBCs. The simulated radar reflectivity loop can be found here: http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/real_time_wrf/radar_1km_4km/anim.php UH tracks:
  16. I don't know - one could argue that a lot of these are discrete cells, and there are A LOT of UH tracks. This could indicate an outbreak.
  17. You don't have to patronize with statements like this. Obviously UH tracks are not a direct indicator of a tornado. UH tracks in an environment that can support tornadoes suggest the possibility. Take a look at the models before posting. Below is a forecast sounding just west of ATL just before the UH track was produced. A low-shear very high CAPE type of scenario, but could certainly support a strong QLCS and/or embedded supercell related tornado threat.
  18. The 12 UTC 3km NAM sends an UH track right over downtown ATL...
  19. I would be cautious in interpreting these soundings from tropical tidbits. Strictly speaking, one should compare the virtual temperature of a lifted parcel to the virtual temperature of the background environment to assess lifted parcel buoyancy and CAPE, but their soundings use actual temperature. So this plot is misleading - the dashed line is probably a bit more to the right than indicated on here. Note that there is no MLCIN. This is actually a pretty good looking thermodynamic profile. Attached is a similar sounding from the same approximate location and time, plotted correctly from dupage. You can see that there is actually quite a bit of low-level buoyancy for a lifted parcel.
  20. This seems like the responsible decision given the lingering uncertainty.
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