jpeters3

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by jpeters3

  1. This ^^^ There were storms all the way into January in 2005.
  2. For reference, recon is about 33% of the way there, with 2-2.5 hours to go. The storm is ~ 60-70 miles from shore, moving WSW at 9 mph. So roughly 6-8 hours before landfall.
  3. Just looked it up. Looks like it's a C-130. I guess they attached the rocket booster.
  4. That should shave off an hour from my estimate! Satellite presentation is the best so far, supported by Raw T values. FWIW: T 7.1 as a post-processed value would equate to a 140 kt cat 5.
  5. Cruising speed of these aircraft are ~320-340 mph. They have about 1200 miles to get there, so roughly 4 hours. Might be enough time!
  6. Ok, I'll admit it. No recon sucks.
  7. Right, i mean even I do. But people on this forum act like it's a massive travesty to science and forecasting that is going to cost lives. In reality, it's just a weenie travesty.
  8. Relax people, life will go on if a recon doesn't get into the storm before landfall. It's not like we don't know where it's going, and that it's probably going to be a shitshow on the ground underneath where it makes landfall. It's also not like a few missing recon missions will crush future research efforts into TCs. So relax....
  9. contrary to what you might all think, I'm sure recon missions aren't cancelled to piss off weather weenies. There is probably a totally legitimate reason for this decision.
  10. raw T up to 6.9, up from ~ 5.0, over the course of an hour.
  11. Clearly you missed the whole epic battle about whether the weak south side of Laura was or was not due to radar attenuation
  12. Can we talk about the ET transition predicted by the GFS? GFS consistently showing an extratropical low near Iceland with a central pressure < 930 mb...
  13. Models are suggesting that shear will not abate until after landfall. Accordingly, they mostly hold at the current intensity. So I think the show is over in terms of RI prior to landfall. But sub 900 is still possible, right???
  14. Motion of the cirrus to the east of the system suggests continued easterly shear. This seems to be reflected in the RAMMB shear analysis, which shows about 15 kt currently.
  15. It's about #156,000 on the list of most important/relevant knowledge to my career. But I appreciate the "metfan" advice.