jpeters3
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Everything posted by jpeters3
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It is possible that the recent large number of cat 5s has something to do with warming SSTs. I would argue that this particular storm might be the most unusual out of the bunch given the intensity it achieved at such a northeasterly position relative to past storms. This may reflect SSTs being warmer in this part of the ocean than in the past, facilitating RI.
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FYI, Trotwood tornado from 5-27 upgraded to EF-4. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSILN&e=201905302115
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This is true. While they are correlated, I think there have been a few EF-2 purported wedges over the past 10 days (e.g. Mangum OK, Canadian TX). Edit: I know both of these tornadoes were observed by DOWs. It will be interesting to see what the radar data says.
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It's quite probable that the two are related (i.e. width and intensity are correlated). I'm fairly sure I've seen some research evidence to support this.
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We all know how useful it is to argue about EF-scale ratings based upon extremely limited information... Lest just wait for the survey, eh???
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This is great news. I was a bit worried last night.
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Any reports of injuries/fatalities from the Dayton storm?
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Gage Shaw shows the wall cloud on livestormchasing: https://livestormchasing.com/map no tornado.
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Some weak circulation to the north.
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VWP observed low-level wind profile is quite impressive.
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Seriously doubt it. No evidence of this in radar.
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Yeah, the distinction between QLCS tornadoes and "embedded supercells" is a bit vague sometimes. Rare that you see a spin up that strong embedded within the middle of a squall line though.
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Tornado definitely dissipated. Very close call.
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Thankfully. That was a really close call. Looks to have been a very intense tornado for a few minutes there.
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That was one heck of a QLCS tornado. Produced a massive debris ball.
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What the hell just happened....
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In their defense, I think pretty much everyone was taken off guard.
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southward surging ofb
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Folks, from an objective perspecitve, this is a bust. There are few scenarios whete the high risk will verify. No signs of CI in the warm sector and a robust MCS that is being overrun by an OFB. Just calling a spade a spade.
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Considering the fact that there had already been several EF-5s on 4-27 by this time, I think this statement is well justified.
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also some CI down to the SE of Lubbock near the dryline.
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Even the NAM NEST has caved a bit. At this point, i would discount that solution anyway since it has very poorly handled MCS development/movement earlier in the day.
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This statement isn't at all quantitatively supported. Also, nobody is jumping on the NAM nest solution as the most likely outcome.
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Just let us objectively assess the situation. Nobody is prematurely calling bust at this point, we're just calling it as we see it and you haven't the faintest idea how much experience any of us have.
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I think it's too early to tell at this point. The current trend is basically between the bullish HRRR solutions and the Bustish NAM NEST solutions. Both models show the outflow boundary from early activity "holding latitude" against the southerly flow.
