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Everything posted by jpeters3

  1. Here comes your full on crazy truck tire...
  2. Probably not when you're talking about the difference between cat 4 and 5, but certainly when you're talking about the difference between a Ts/weak disorganized hurricane and a major hurricane.
  3. SFMR winds in the NE quad somewhat unimpressive on that pass. Only ~ 105 kt.
  4. I had quite a chuckle at "full crazy truck tire" Next NOAA mission about to penetrate the core.
  5. In all seriousness, it looks like 2 more days of steady (if not decreasing by day 2) shear and steady SSTs in the 28-29 C range. So there is plenty of time.
  6. I was about to make fun of all the people who keep saying this will make a run for cat 5, but ADT is now solidly at 6.6 (corresponding to 130 kt) with Raw T at 7.0. Doesn't really have that far to go to pull a Lorenzo...
  7. There is also an AF plane going in, so we will have lots of data in the next few hours.
  8. Yeah, I honestly think it could go either way. There is clearly some shear affecting the CDO (making it asymmetric).
  9. Though, it doesn't look like that surface wind was related to a gust/mesovotex. The consistent readings of 130 kt aloft as well suggest to me that 115 kt might be a reasonable intensity.
  10. Looks like there is also a bit of a double wind maxima in the NE quadrant.
  11. Again, is anyone in this forum **really that surprised** to see a comment like this?? But to answer the question, no **that** (whatever "that" is) is probably not an eye clearing out.
  12. There were consistent radar echo tops > 60,000 ft this morning - not sure I have ever seen this in a TC.
  13. Hehehehe, i was waiting for this comment.
  14. Isn't this what the forum is all about???
  15. If a mesovortex produces sustained winds of 140 mph, than it's a 140 mph storm. However, meso-vortices are more likely to produce really fast instantaneous gusts, but not necessarily contribute a lot to the overall sustained winds. So people are probably discounting instantaneous gusts as being part of meso-vortices.
  16. I mean part of an active season, especially hyperactive is your general September central Atlantic hurricanes. They usually produce a big chunk of ACE and most of the hyperactive years have them. I just enjoy tracking, attempting forecasts and observing the outcomes. Whether they are land threats or not matters little to me. Though I would prefer they avoid populated areas. A big CV hurricane is my favorite even if it threatens nothing but shipping. Aside from Dorian, Lorenzo was an incredible storm to track as well last year. Perhaps we'll get a few beasts over the next month. Yeah I'm with you. I would rather see a monster cat 4 or 5 storm that remains out to see, than mayhem/destruction related to landfall. This is why I find the east pac season fun to track.
  17. Appreciate the support Certainly an interesting feature, and again seems to have occurred in past intense TCs (Harvey, Michael). My suspicion is that it has to do with the modest southerly shear.
  18. One last drop into the eye. 940 mb @ 11 kt.
  19. They probably dropped a sonde in the NW eyewall on their way out.
  20. FL winds in excess of 145 kt too. SFMR still just shy of 130 kt, so seems like sustained winds are holding.
  21. This is probably what happened. Seems like there is a reasonable case for 125 kt as the current intensity based on the most recent AF mission.
  22. So this was about an hour ago in the NW quad from the P3, just for reference.
  23. New sonde? Not showing up yet on my end.