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Everything posted by jpeters3

  1. Sondes have been consistently showing higher pressures than extrapolations though. Also, there hasn't been SFMR or a sonde that showed anything higher than 125 kts for a while.
  2. Looks like NHC went with 939 mb, but I agree that 937 was probably the low point. Interesting, I'm actually seeing outbound velocities in the western eyewall approach 160 mph per KLCH. This is comparable to the eastern side, and the strongest winds I have seen there so far. Seems to coincide with an apparent intensification of the western eyewall in the reflectivity.
  3. Careful, you could start an hour long internet war with that kind of talk...
  4. Was this our peak? So probably something like 937 mb?
  5. I am jealous that you live in Kailua. Latest radar scans show that *whatever* was happening with the southern eyewall may be abating. New high DBZ returns have wrapped completely around the southeastern side.
  6. Agreed. I am done (with that topic at least). New recon made a pass while we were arguing, FYI: 145 kt FL winds in the western eyewall.
  7. I agree, but every other poster tries to tell me I don't know what I'm talking about after I presented a clearly thought out argument, and it's fairly frustrating.
  8. The southern eyewall is clearly weaker in this situation (or at least appears weaker) than in the case of Michael's southeastern eyewall.
  9. Did I say that anywhere in the post? He is not the foremost expert on TCs, and there are plenty of others. I happen to know many of them.
  10. The second radar site was to the west. Almost due west. I can't believe we are still having this argument. Nobody has even looked to see where KHGX is.
  11. The argument is somewhat moot, because my speculation that the strengthening would stop was clearly wrong. In any case, mark my word, the last words I will utter on my death bed are "It was not attenuation!!!! I swear it!!!"
  12. second radar is KHGX, which is almost due west.
  13. Everyone is speculating, even Rick Knabb. I'm having a conversation with another professor who is an expert in TCs, and he agrees with my explanation of the phenomena. I also maintain that nobody has explained why the features shows up in the same spot from two different radars. I guess we'll see if the VDM contains any remarks.
  14. Explain this to me then. How does "attenuation" show up in the same location from two completely different vantage points. From KHGX, it should be on the eastern side, but it shows up on the south?
  15. It is what it is. There are light echoes there for certain. But just look at the northern semicircle. This vorticity maximum isn't weakening anytime soon. It might have reached a steady-state. Good enough. Unfortunately the damage has already been cemented for landfall impacts. Yeah, I think the point of my original post was missed. It seemed to have been interpreted as, "this has an open eyewall, it is going to weaken into an open wave before landfall." In reality, i was just making an observation and speculating as to the influence of this observation on future strengthening. To set the record straight: 2 images from different radars at the same time. Along the line I have drawn, which goes from the eye out into the open air outside the storm, there are no echoes > 15 dBz.
  16. There are clearly several regions on the south end where echoes drop below 20 dBz though. So the intense eyewall convection is fairly degraded down there. I'm not saying that recon will find this region completely devoid of convection and bright moonlight shining in, and these asymmetric eyewall structures are somewhat common in event intense hurricanes. All i'm saying is that this may but a damper on continued strengthening. But this seemed to have ignited a massive controversy.
  17. For all you idiots who are acting like I just insulted a member of your family, here is the KHGX view which shows the same structure. These ignorant comments about radar attenuation need to stop.
  18. This is is not attenuation for the last time. It shows up on multiple radars in the same location. Rain doesn't typically attenuate WSR88Ds at this range.
  19. IR satellite does not tell you about eyewall structure in nearly as much detail as radar.
  20. It's not radar issues. We've been over this.
  21. Southern eyewall appears to have eroded completely. Show might be over in terms of strengthening.
  22. That's probably it. There was a weak signature in IR. I have never heard of this before today.