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About jpeters3

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  1. It's probably a combination of cold pool/shear interactions and insufficient low-level tilting of vorticity. RAP shows a fairly dramatic increase in low-level shear over the next several hours, however.
  2. Agreed. Give it an hour or two, and these storms will be bad news.
  3. Need more...
  4. I suspect storms are currently struggling due to somewhat meager low-level shear. This will no longer be a problem once the low-level jet ramps up later.
  5. Goes to show how wind shear can compensate for low CAPE. MLCAPE values in that area were only analyzed at ~ 500 J/Kg by SPC meso analysis.
  6. Check out the 18Z TLH sounding. Some pretty impressive 0-1 km and effective inflow layer SRH, but the numbers aren't quite as astronomical as some of the guidance this morning had predicted. Lacking a little bit in curvature within the lowest 1 km, which may be why these cells aren't becoming widespread tornado producers just yet. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/17012218_OBS/
  7. Looks like the fired a massive OFB out to their west. Perhaps they were inundated by their own outflow?
  8. Right. 15 kts at the surface and 35 kts at 850 in a similar direction might give you the same shear magnitude as 5 kts at the surface and 25 kts at 850, with a lot of veering. 00 Soundings should come out soon. The sort of "best guess" of what a sounding might look like is typically one taken from the RAP analysis (though I'm starting to find out that these can be pretty bad too). College of dupage website has a good "point and click" interface with the RAP, so you can point to a location on a map at a given time and get a forecast sounding. If you want an approximately current sounding, find the most recently initialized RAP run and look at the forecast hour that corresponds to the current time.
  9. And this sounding is going on 13 hours old….
  10. Yeah, but this is 12 hours ago.
  11. Mesoanalysis has 300-400 J/Kg effective SRH in that area, and 15-20 kt 0-1 km shear. Just goes to show that it's the shear that matters - not the actual wind magnitude at 850.
  12. I'm in Fort Collins too, and this one made me squirm a bit ;-)
  13. Result was actually kind of a surprise to me. I would have agreed with you prior to seeing the data.
  14. I'm currently doing a study on this, and you are incorrect. More often than not, tornado events that produce EF-1 or greater tornadoes during the spring last into the night. Edit: The question of whether chasing is very relevant after 03Z depends on who you are asking ;-)
  15. I generally agree with this - anywhere near, or slightly south of the boundary (and slightly south of the sounding I posted) is going to be prime. I do expect that some of the convection the model is blowing up north of this region is going to be elevated though. Might end up being elevated supercells with the very high low-level SRH, but elevated none the less.