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About jpeters3

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  1. Ugh. You're right. That's probably an unfavorable scenario. Can't really win at this point.
  2. Ugh! Given the unfavorable wobble over Dominica, maybe we'll get a favorable wobble offshore (or westward) upon landfall away from San Juan and population. A guy can hope...
  3. HMON pressures are not reliable. HMON predicted something like 857 mb over the FL keys with Irma, which didn't even come close to happening.
  4. Yeah - the average wind from ~ 900 hPa to ~ 920 hPa was greater than 160 kts. Pretty incredible.
  5. That's still pretty spectacular, given that it was the SW eyewall. And it hit the surface at 921 hPa, which suggests to me that the center might have gone below 909.
  6. Does this graphic show 10s average or gust?
  7. I don't typically use this site, but is this forreal? 168 kt at surface?
  8. Looks like that one is a "news summary" of the same article I posted the abstract for.
  9. Agree. I for one appreciate the Raw T updates (they save me from having to go look them up myself!)
  10. To summarize, the abstract does not indicate a direct connection between typhoons and ordinary earthquakes. Rather, the authors seem to connect rainfall in typhoons to slow earthquakes, and there is a possible (but unproven) connection between slow earthquakes and regular earthquakes (e.g. the kinds you feel).
  11. See my above edited post with the abstract. I don't have access to the actual article, but the abstract seems to clear a few things up.
  12. Here is the abstract: The connection between typhoons and actual earthquakes seems nebulous at best from reading this. They are arguing that rainfall can facilitate slow earthquakes (which happen over long periods of time), which have a possible (but unclear) connection to regular earthquakes. The first reports1, 2 on a slow earthquake were for an event in the Izu peninsula, Japan, on an intraplate, seismically active fault. Since then, many slow earthquakes have been detected3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. It has been suggested9 that the slow events may trigger ordinary earthquakes (in a context supported by numerical modelling10), but their broader significance in terms of earthquake occurrence remains unclear. Triggering of earthquakes has received much attention: strain diffusion from large regional earthquakes has been shown to influence large earthquake activity11, 12, and earthquakes may be triggered during the passage of teleseismic waves13, a phenomenon now recognized as being common14, 15, 16, 17. Here we show that, in eastern Taiwan, slow earthquakes can be triggered by typhoons. We model the largest of these earthquakes as repeated episodes of slow slip on a reverse fault just under land and dipping to the west; the characteristics of all events are sufficiently similar that they can be modelled with minor variations of the model parameters. Lower pressure results in a very small unclamping of the fault that must be close to the failure condition for the typhoon to act as a trigger. This area experiences very high compressional deformation but has a paucity of large earthquakes; repeating slow events may be segmenting the stressed area and thus inhibiting large earthquakes, which require a long, continuous seismic rupture.
  13. Ok, I'll give it a look. They Don't include an article title, which is probably why I missed the reference.
  14. The peer review process ensures credible science. "Scientific articles" that are not peer reviewed are not considered to be accredited by the scientific community. Consider that, without peer review, I could publish articles on countless BS connections between butterfly migration patterns and megathrust earthquakes.
  15. What you posted was not an actual peer-reviwed article. It was a nature "news special."