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jpeters3

Meteorologist
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About jpeters3

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KMKE
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  1. I've posted a link to a recent study by Matt Parker at North Carolina State University: WAF paper Feel free to read the abstract or the entire article. In general, the study debunks several of the "myths" surrounding veer-back-veer. In particular, the "wrong-orientation of spin" imparted by backing aloft on the updraft has little effect on the efficacy of tornado production. Certain factors that are known to be detrimental to tornado production sometimes, but do not always, accompany veer-back-veer, and he suggests that forecasters focus on those things. Yet another reminder that certain popular notions in the forecasting community do not necessarily have rigorous scientific evidence that supports them.
  2. Nate

    This is plausible, given that the left quadrant winds are going to be weaker, and the potentially reduced rainfall totals.
  3. Nate

    The system motion itself does not generate shear. Shear is actually weak right now because there is 20-25 kt of wind throughout the depth of the troposphere, so the speed and direction changes little with height.
  4. Nate

    Correct. The best-track wind speed estimates are ground-relative, not system-relative.
  5. Nate

    Check out the strange meso-vortex located at 24-25 N, 94-95 W in the satellite loop..
  6. Hurricane Maria

    Ugh. You're right. That's probably an unfavorable scenario. Can't really win at this point.
  7. Hurricane Maria

    Ugh! Given the unfavorable wobble over Dominica, maybe we'll get a favorable wobble offshore (or westward) upon landfall away from San Juan and population. A guy can hope...
  8. Hurricane Maria

    HMON pressures are not reliable. HMON predicted something like 857 mb over the FL keys with Irma, which didn't even come close to happening.
  9. Hurricane Maria

    Yeah - the average wind from ~ 900 hPa to ~ 920 hPa was greater than 160 kts. Pretty incredible.
  10. Hurricane Maria

    That's still pretty spectacular, given that it was the SW eyewall. And it hit the surface at 921 hPa, which suggests to me that the center might have gone below 909.
  11. Hurricane Maria

    Does this graphic show 10s average or gust?
  12. Hurricane Maria

    I don't typically use this site, but is this forreal? 168 kt at surface?
  13. Hurricanes/Typhoons and Earthquakes/Tremors

    Looks like that one is a "news summary" of the same article I posted the abstract for.
  14. Hurricane Maria

    Agree. I for one appreciate the Raw T updates (they save me from having to go look them up myself!)
  15. Hurricanes/Typhoons and Earthquakes/Tremors

    To summarize, the abstract does not indicate a direct connection between typhoons and ordinary earthquakes. Rather, the authors seem to connect rainfall in typhoons to slow earthquakes, and there is a possible (but unproven) connection between slow earthquakes and regular earthquakes (e.g. the kinds you feel).
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