• Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by jpeters3

  1. I would be incredibly surprised if this one wasn't also an EF-4 (or 5).
  2. I'm guessing it will be assessed as a continuous track.
  3. Hard to tell - looks like it might be the same circulation.
  4. confirmed, still a wedge on humphree's cam.
  5. John Humphress has been periodically showing a massive wedge.
  6. this is literally a few minutes after someone called bust
  7. That storm just took a massive hike toward the right as well.
  8. Same thing happened on 4-12-20, prior to the series of long-tracked massive supercell tornadoes. Also, there's a wedge on the ground in eastern AL. TOO EARLY TO CALL BUST.
  9. Lol, just as the weenies start to call bust, the "junkvection line" starts to turn into supercells. Look at eastern MS
  10. That has to be one of the most stunning chaser feed moments i have seen. I thought he was going to get hit. Thing is moving like a freight train.
  12. Looks like the classic enhanced inflow signature had developed that proceeds a big spin-up
  13. The mass of convection that is currently forming in southern MS is a fly in the ointment. This looks similar to what the toned-down 00 UTC HRRR showed, and might pose a junkvection-like mechanism for preventing more widespread stabilization.
  14. At this point we should be focused more on weather outcomes (e.g., strong/violent long tracked tornadoes) than SPC forecast content. Whether or not watches are PDS, or whether or not spc issues a 45% tornado probability, is somewhat irrelevant at this point. These things have no bearing on what will happen.
  15. The NAM nest is a bit out to lunch on early day convection, but has gone all in on the outbreak scenario.
  16. This is inconsequential. The discussion speaks for itself.
  17. There always is. Too much convection blowing up too early in the warm sector could substantially reduce supercell coverage, for instance.
  18. All of the latest ones are pretty darn concerning, eh?
  19. The ceiling is certainly a historic, and unfortunately destructive and deadly, outbreak.
  20. After the brief lull at 00Z, the HRRR is back to apocalypse mode. Pretty scary convergence of model guidance on what looks like a a worst case scenario...
  21. Fairly sure no observed sounding has ever looked like that
  22. Yeah, can we talk about where the hell these profiles came from??? Calling BS on this solution...
  23. Nam nest says "hold my beer." Produces a warm sector with widespread 0-1 km SRH > 600 J/kg and 80-100 kt 0-6 km BWDs, but not one supercell or UH track over MS/AL. Not much convection at all. So much for CAMs making things clearer for the 06 UTC outlook.