Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,515
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    chrislittlenews
    Newest Member
    chrislittlenews
    Joined
Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

Recommended Posts

36 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Greg Fishel out at WRAL.  What a miserable way to end a miserable winter.

First I heard of this.  What the heck happened?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, wake4est said:

fv3 to become officially operational on March 20.

Winter over on March 21st.  So it has exactly 1 day to accurately forecast winter this year.  It's either gonna be all right or all wrong for 2019.  Such suspense!

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Winter over on March 21st.  So it has exactly 1 day to accurately forecast winter this year.  It's either gonna be all right or all wrong for 2019.  Such suspense!

 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Greg Fishel out at WRAL.  What a miserable way to end a miserable winter.

Damn, I will really miss him. One of the best.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone remember the winter of 2012-2013? It was quite mild as well, and it was a year where an El Nino was predicted but did not develop. 

It seems like this winter has played out much like that one.

Back in this past autumn, it looked an El Nino was a slam dunk. However, this current winter has actually been more Enso Neutral as, at least atmospherically, an El Nino, up to that point, has not really developed. With the chilly November we had, I was actually not surprised if this winter could potentially turn out a bit like 2012-2013 did (November 2012 was a little below normal as well).
In other words, December and January could potentially turn mild despite a colder than normal November, and therefore, the colder than normal forecasts wouldn't as likely pan out.
I think the main reason why February was seasonable or slightly colder than normal in 2013 was that we had a Greenland block come in the back end of that winter. Without that, February would have probably been mild as well. 

Also, meteorologist Ben Noll back this past summer had called the apparent developing El Nino a "head fake." In other words, he did not think one would develop for the 2018-2019 winter. 

Back this past September as well, there were some doubts as well about the El Nino. 
https://www.beefmagazine.com/outlook/doubts-starting-creep-about-el-ni-o-winter

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since winter is probably over here, the focus turns to heavy rain, check out some of these GEFS totals here- could be historic flooding if we really get 10-13" of rain like some of the members have.....

Screen Shot 2019-02-14 at 6.49.58 AM.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Greg Fishel out at WRAL.  What a miserable way to end a miserable winter.

Yeah, Can't help but reflect back to a chat we had with him a while back.

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Cheeznado said:

Since winter is probably over here, the focus turns to heavy rain, check out some of these GEFS totals here- could be historic flooding if we really get 10-13" of rain like some of the members have.....

Screen Shot 2019-02-14 at 6.49.58 AM.png

06Z 2/14/2019 guidance from the ICON and GFS suggest the heaviest axis of rain will be north of Atlanta. 0Z CMC was also north of Atlanta with the heaviest precip. This seems to suggest the affects on Atlanta will be marginal. Would you agree? Also, what mechanisms would be in play to drop the axis south? It seems to me that the SE ridge is depicted as strengthening through day 10. Wouldn't this push the best lift north as well? I'm thinking mild to warm with maybe up to an 1" of rain for Atlanta would be realistic in that scenario. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good thing that December storm was a good one here. Otherwise, I'd be totally blanked for this winter. And it seems once again we had a big storm here and then nothing at all afterwards. It's been that way since 2000. We either have nothing, a couple of decent storms, or one big storm and then nothing at all afterwards. I should have known that was it once we got the big one in December.

Oh, and the FV3 was the best for the December storm, but it has been awful the past month in showing fantasy storms in the 7 to 10 day period that never happen. 

I guess we have severe weather to look forward to now. Hopefully, the models will be better with the severe chances than they were with winter storm chances. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Good thing that December storm was a good one here. Otherwise, I'd be totally blanked for this winter. And it seems once again we had a big storm here and then nothing at all afterwards. It's been that way since 2000. We either have nothing, a couple of decent storms, or one big storm and then nothing at all afterwards. I should have known that was it once we got the big one in December.

Oh, and the FV3 was the best for the December storm, but it has been awful the past month in showing fantasy storms in the 7 to 10 day period that never happen. 

I guess we have severe weather to look forward to now. Hopefully, the models will be better with the severe chances than they were with winter storm chances. 

The 12z FV3 did come in a little colder for next weeks potential event. Would be significant ice for our region. But, I agree it hasn't done well lately.

Freezing rain totals:

 

aaaa.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

The 12z FV3 did come in a little colder for next weeks potential event. Would be significant ice for our region. But, I agree it hasn't done well lately.

Freezing rain totals:

 

aaaa.jpg

FV3 is the cold outlier. Imagine that...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For those in Southern Wake, this winter has pretty much been a blank.  I had like half of inch of slush that was gone by mid-day and nothing with the second round later that day.

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With its performance beyond 5 days, it is ludicrous to think you’d replace any model with the FV3. It has repeatedly shown big storms for central NC in the 6-14 range that the others have not shown for the most part.  Maybe I’m just judging my mby, but it’s been terrible.  Way too cold with cold and wintry weather.  Has it performed better elsewhere?

TW 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

The 12z FV3 did come in a little colder for next weeks potential event. Would be significant ice for our region. But, I agree it hasn't done well lately.

Freezing rain totals:

 

aaaa.jpg

Hard pass on that one if that was our only option.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tarheelwx said:

With its performance beyond 5 days, it is ludicrous to think you’d replace any model with the FV3. It has repeatedly shown big storms for central NC in the 6-14 range that the others have not shown for the most part.  Maybe I’m just judging my mby, but it’s been terrible.  Way too cold with cold and wintry weather.  Has it performed better elsewhere?

TW 

I want to say the FV3 handled the December storm pretty well... We were tracking it for 7-10 days and it never really wavered.  

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking back the writing was on the wall. El Nino struggled to develop and while Nov and early Dec were colder than average and we did get a snow, the Pac quickly showed its hand for the winter in mid Dec. Tropical forcing was all wrong, strong Pac jet and when the EPO tanked the ridge was too far west and allowed a war. I knew in Dec Jan was toast. Remember saying it on here. But I thought we had plenty of time to save Feb and then the Nino faded. That's a couple years lately El Nino has completely failed. I find it amazing in a warming climate and high SST's we cant even get a legit Nino anymore. Cant remember one since 09-10 that wasn't the crap fest super Nino of a couple years ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree it did well, but so did most other models.  Didn’t the FV3 show some of the further south solutions that raised hopes for S NC down into SC?

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
06Z 2/14/2019 guidance from the ICON and GFS suggest the heaviest axis of rain will be north of Atlanta. 0Z CMC was also north of Atlanta with the heaviest precip. This seems to suggest the affects on Atlanta will be marginal. Would you agree? Also, what mechanisms would be in play to drop the axis south? It seems to me that the SE ridge is depicted as strengthening through day 10. Wouldn't this push the best lift north as well? I'm thinking mild to warm with maybe up to an 1" of rain for Atlanta would be realistic in that scenario. 

I disagree, GEFS, EPS have been very consistent with at least 5" for the whole event. Would be extremely surprised if ATL only got an inch.



.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RAH Friday afternoon still hints at the slight possibility of a mix Tuesday night.

In general, this pattern will favor high-chance and 
even likely PoPs during much of the long term period, with QPF 
estimates of 1-3 inches of rain from Sun through Fri. The best 
chance for any pause in this wet pattern may be late Monday into 
early Tuesday as we briefly see some drying in the wake of early 
Monday's cold fropa. Otherwise, temps should be warm enough this 
entire period to preclude any P-type concerns other than rain, 
except for a "very brief" period Tuesday night when forecast 
soundings over our western Piedmont counties suggest it may be 
barely cold enough for a "very brief" period of wintry mix with the 
rain. Of course we'll be evaluating that potential during the coming 
days, but for now, expecting most if not all rain as p-type during 
this time.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

The sounding isn’t too far from isothermal on Tuesday Evening.

Tropical tidbits snowmap shows accumulating snow here but the surface maps just show rain... kind of weird.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×