RobbyC

Just because it's colder than average in the west doesn't mean it can't also be colder than average in parts of the east. February 2013 was cold in much of the west but was also cold in a good part of the east. Two analogs for February 2021 had a "cold everywhere in the U.S." type of pattern with the core of the cold in the north central states. The southeast was the least cold but still only average. Two such years were 1971 and 1989. A negative PNA can still mean cold in the east if the NAO/AO is also negative. If the NAO/AO stay negative through February, it could keep the eastern seaboard and southeast closer to normal. It wouldn't be as mild as it would otherwise be. I think our region gets two more chances for the frozen stuff during February.

Just because it's colder than average in the west doesn't mean it can't also be colder than average in parts of the east. February 2013 was cold in much of the west but was also cold in a good part of the east. Two analogs for February 2021 had a "cold everywhere in the U.S." type of pattern with the core of the cold in the north central states. The southeast was the least cold but still only average. Two such years were 1971 and 1989. A negative PNA can still mean cold in the east if the NAO/AO is also negative. If the NAO/AO stay negative through February, it could keep the eastern seaboard and southeast closer to normal. It wouldn't be as mild as it would otherwise be. If MJO, though, spends a good bit of time in 6 and 7, what's indicated above would more likely happen. Also, in Nina's, above normal Februarys are more likely in the east than in non-Nina's. I think our region gets two more chances for the frozen stuff during this coming February.

Agreed. GFS has had a better handle on the Fall pattern this year. With the cool shots we've seen this season, it seems like the Euro has failed to spot them in advance with its modeling. It hasn't been able to see "cold" in the long range. MJO is currently in Phase 4 (as of 10/12) and then goes to Phase 5 through the next week. Phase 4 is seasonable/up-down, but Phase 5 is decisively cooler than average in the Southeast for this time of year. Phases 7, 8, and 1 are the ones that are a warm pattern for this time of year while Phase 6 is transitional. Perhaps, Euro is thinking we enter into Phase 7 after a week? AO/NAO are currently negative and will be for at least the next couple weeks. This supports a cooler pattern as well in our region. Judah Cohen (in his 10/12 update) stated that the MJO signal would weaken once it entered into Phase 5, and therefore, wouldn't influence the pattern that much. So, AO/NAO would have the main influence out of those two. Given these, his outlook going to 10/27 says that our area will be in a seasonable/cool pattern overall.

A real heatwave, at least for where I live (in the GSP region) has always been defined by at least a 1 week stretch of 98+ degree days w/ heat indices of at least 105+ on many of them. Mid August 1995, for example, had a whole week where it was in the upper 90's, and it hit 100 twice. Nighttime lows were like only in the mid 70's for most of that week. GSP had come off of a 5th hottest July that year. Third week of August 1983 had a heatwave, and it hit over 100 at GSP 3-4 times. August 2007 had a major heatwave as well with the most 100+ degree days in a month at GSP. Overall, this summer has reminded me a bit of summer 1987 as far as temperatures go.

Anyone remember the winter of 2012-2013? It was quite mild as well, and it was a year where an El Nino was predicted but did not develop. It seems like this winter has played out much like that one. Back in this past autumn, it looked an El Nino was a slam dunk. However, this current winter has actually been more Enso Neutral as, at least atmospherically, an El Nino, up to that point, has not really developed. With the chilly November we had, I was actually not surprised if this winter could potentially turn out a bit like 2012-2013 did (November 2012 was a little below normal as well). In other words, December and January could potentially turn mild despite a colder than normal November, and therefore, the colder than normal forecasts wouldn't as likely pan out. I think the main reason why February was seasonable or slightly colder than normal in 2013 was that we had a Greenland block come in the back end of that winter. Without that, February would have probably been mild as well. Also, meteorologist Ben Noll back this past summer had called the apparent developing El Nino a "head fake." In other words, he did not think one would develop for the 2018-2019 winter. Back this past September as well, there were some doubts as well about the El Nino. https://www.beefmagazine.com/outlook/doubts-starting-creep-about-el-ni-o-winter

I think this Summer will be more front-loaded. The year so far, weather-wise, has played out more like 2014 with March thru April being cooler than average and May being warmer than average. In 2014, June was warmer than average, and initially, I thought we would have a a bit of a hot Summer, Then we turned cooler in July, and August went on to be below average as well. That Summer ended up below normal temperature-wise. We also had an El Nino developing that year. The following pics are temperature anomalies for June 2014 as well as that overall Summer. Also included is the temperature rank compared to other years.