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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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32 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Still can't get 6 inches in western upstate:cry:

I see a 7 sitting over either wahalla or Seneca 

That qualifies as Western Upstate 

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8 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

FV3 toyed with it and another for the 21-22 at 6z.  So we have hints from the Euro, Fv3, GFS and the Canadian that something could be up around the 20/21 timeframe.

 We shall see.

It is encouraging to continue to see support from both the GFS as well as the Fv3 (op runs that is) is the Euro still in agreement at all? 

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57 minutes ago, Cheers for Western Ears said:

It is encouraging to continue to see support from both the GFS as well as the Fv3 (op runs that is) is the Euro still in agreement at all? 

Euro mainly showing Rain right now...

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3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The 6Z GFS still shows some ice potential for central NC on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Yep that would correlate with the above FV3 map. The GFS also has a lighter event for this upcoming Sunday:

 

aaaa.jpg

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0z Canada lost it for now. It’s showing apps runner on Monday with a little ice in NC mtns up thru most of VA, cold rain from Wilkes Co and points SE. CMC also showing warmer solution for second system on Wednesday with rain all the way into WV mtns, snow confined to PA.

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18 minutes ago, WSchew said:

0z Canada lost it for now. It’s showing apps runner on Monday with a little ice in NC mtns up thru most of VA, cold rain from Wilkes Co and points SE. CMC also showing warmer solution for second system on Wednesday with rain all the way into WV mtns, snow confined to PA.

The euro is also in the same camp. Would be nice to see them come in colder at 12z. 

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2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

The euro is also in the same camp. Would be nice to see them come in colder at 12z. 

Yeah, Its going to be tough to jump on board without the Euro!

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14 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Still can't get 6 inches in western upstate:cry:

You know what that silly clown map reminds me of?  The 93 Superstorm......aaahhh the memories.  I guess that's all we're left with now!:rolleyes:

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12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

CMC still a rain storm,  GFS is a SNOW/ ICE to Rain, and then an ICE Storm after that...

Yes a lot of upcoming activity to be resolved.  This will be something to watch for in coming days as late Feb getting some game on in the models.

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2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yeah, Its going to be tough to jump on board without the Euro!

The Euro ens have a few big hits for NC and several for VA,  hopefully we see more and more ens panels showing bigger hits going forward...I am sure 99% of the NC/VA folks would lock this panel in lol.....

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019021200_240_8342_215_m1.thumb.png.11c8e15ebe1b6e86d61fd3171e6355b9.png

 

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49 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The Euro ens have a few big hits for NC and several for VA,  hopefully we see more and more ens panels showing bigger hits going forward...I am sure 99% of the NC/VA folks would lock this panel in lol.....

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019021200_240_8342_215_m1.thumb.png.11c8e15ebe1b6e86d61fd3171e6355b9.png

 

How did the 12z op run look? 

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1038MB high about 100 miles north of Buffalo. If it’s a little stronger or a little further south, the freezing rain line plunges even further south. 

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32 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

2-3 inches from roughly Hickory to Durham-ish followed by a significant to damaging freezing rain event. 

i'd honestly be a little surprised if north carolina doesn't get something  frozen or freezing over the next 10 days. Looks like this hot garbage of a winter will continue for ga though unless the models are faster with the highs building into the mid atlantic/northeast or we see things shift south..which lol...we know that won't happen. 

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3 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

2-3 inches from roughly Hickory to Durham-ish followed by a significant to damaging freezing rain event. 

Master peak snow totals its all a front end thump totals.....still a big jump from the 00Z 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019021212_180_8342_215.thumb.png.b98384a5834a2531b94efd53cd42aca5.png

Then there is the #1 Euro Ens panel at least thats how its numbered on Weather.US that I linked before it holds the big dog and obviously has the low moving east and buries almost all of NC...would love to see this pan out....actually it didn't it looked like the above but a bit better....

 

 

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RAH this afternoon - 2/12/19

Monday looks to be dry as strong continental high pressure moves 
across the upper Midwest and ridges in from the north with 
temperatures near normal. This high will slide into a better position 
for classic/hybrid damming by Tuesday morning as isentropic lift 
begins and a feed of moisture originating from the Gulf of Mexico 
advects into the western Piedmont. With the cold air in place, 
winter P-types could become a problem early Tuesday in the 
climatologically favored areas. Stay tuned. 
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8 minutes ago, Solak said:

RAH this afternoon - 2/12/19

Monday looks to be dry as strong continental high pressure moves 
across the upper Midwest and ridges in from the north with 
temperatures near normal. This high will slide into a better position 
for classic/hybrid damming by Tuesday morning as isentropic lift 
begins and a feed of moisture originating from the Gulf of Mexico 
advects into the western Piedmont. With the cold air in place, 
winter P-types could become a problem early Tuesday in the 
climatologically favored areas. Stay tuned. 

I bet the 12z euro helped them mention the possibility.   

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