Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,514
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Raifu
    Newest Member
    Raifu
    Joined
Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

Recommended Posts

46 minutes ago, Poimen said:

ABEC5BB1-37B1-43E8-8A36-487B2FAC651E.jpeg

It's good to be north of I-40! I40 - I85; here's a tease. Everybody else; sorry Charlie :lol:

I honestly don't know how to feel about things going forward. I think there is a lot of potential, but I am concerned about the lack of true cold so far, not just around here, but nationwide. Despite the early signs of blocking we still don't seem to be able to get that in winter, and it's frustrating we're already playing the SSW card in hopes of getting some to come our way. The only thing that seems to be working out is the (endless) rainfall, but we need the cold. When I say we, I mean everybody outside of NC that got burried a couple of weeks ago and have gotten in on several small events already. I said before I fear this is going to be an I-40 /north or even state line/north winter, despite all the positive factors leading in, and that fear has not abated. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

It's good to be north of I-40! I40 - I85; here's a tease. Everybody else; sorry Charlie :lol:

I honestly don't know how to feel about things going forward. I think there is a lot of potential, but I am concerned about the lack of true cold so far, not just around here, but nationwide. Despite the early signs of blocking we still don't seem to be able to get that in winter, and it's frustrating we're already playing the SSW card in hopes of getting some to come our way. The only thing that seems to be working out is the (endless) rainfall, but we need the cold. When I say we, I mean everybody outside of NC that got burried a couple of weeks ago and have gotten in on several small events already. I said before I fear this is going to be an I-40 /north or even state line/north winter, despite all the positive factors leading in, and that fear has not abated. 

I’m picking up what you’re putting down. It’s been one heathy rain event after another. I’m not so sure these types of juicy (Niño) waves will be able to produce around here. We definitely need something flat. Every rain event here in the past several months has been 2”+ storm rainfall amounts. Blocking will be crucial as well as stout HP’s dropping into the plains to keep our southern waves from exploding. Much like our early December event (except with BLOCKING). It’s never easy getting a big dog around here and I don’t think this year will be any different, but I am hopeful. Euro weeklies looked :weenie: If I was in the MA it would be hard to contain my excitement 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, griteater said:

Here's this aftn's week 3-4 forecast from NOAA (for Jan 5-19).  Their forecast discussion is good and touches on many things that have been part of the long range discussion in here over the past few weeks - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

 

wot84lR.gif

"While we do not issue explicit forecasts of winter weather potential at this lead, it would seem prudent to note that the forecast circulation pattern would favor an enhanced chance of winter storm events east of the Appalachians, including the major population centers of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, especially later in the period."---That's about as good as you will get from them to signal snow chances even for our (NC/SC) respected areas

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

"While we do not issue explicit forecasts of winter weather potential at this lead, it would seem prudent to note that the forecast circulation pattern would favor an enhanced chance of winter storm events east of the Appalachians, including the major population centers of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, especially later in the period."---That's about as good as you will get from them to signal snow chances even for our (NC/SC) respected areas

Bring it! Yeah that's the best forecast I've heard from the fed level NOAA in forever.  I'm still waiting for things to fall off the rails but it hasn't.  The back of my mind I'm thinking I got my 5 inches for the year, I don't deserve/won't get anymore statistically speaking.  Hard to believe everything's lining up for a really great January and February.  Cautiously optimistic.  Very cautious. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I live in Northeast Georgia, and based on the forecast for the next 10 days, it's almost certain that we will have another above-normal December in terms of temperatures.  That makes 8 AN Decembers in a row, going all the way back to 2011.  Is that some kind of record?  Have there ever been any other months for which the temperatures were above normal 8 years in a row? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, WarmNose said:

I’m picking up what you’re putting down. It’s been one heathy rain event after another. I’m not so sure these types of juicy (Niño) waves will be able to produce around here. We definitely need something flat. Every rain event here in the past several months has been 2”+ storm rainfall amounts. Blocking will be crucial as well as stout HP’s dropping into the plains to keep our southern waves from exploding. Much like our early December event (except with BLOCKING). It’s never easy getting a big dog around here and I don’t think this year will be any different, but I am hopeful. Euro weeklies looked :weenie: If I was in the MA it would be hard to contain my excitement 

Yeah the rain has been incredible, crazy to see so many multi-inchers one after another. Seems we've been pretty paltry with the highs and the cold, other than our Dec storm, and even that was borderline for most. I remain hopeful, as even the upstate has nine more weeks we could legitmately see snow, but I'm getting that sinking feeling that many of the ingredients we were looking at a few weeks ago aren't coming together. Maybe I'm just being inpatient, as this is "supposed" to be a back loaded winter setup, but I just haven't seen too many signs of bona fide cold yet, anywhere in the country. I know the SSW event has the potential to help with that, but it may also not help us at all; and we always seem to be Charlie Brown with the SSW and -NOA being the footballs. I agree that MA and NE are probably golden this year, but we've got to get a lot in our boat south of NC to get anything. That's another reason why I hated to miss the big dog a couple weeks ago. Despite the common view it was a "bonus" snow,  it could also end up having been our best chance all winter in this area. You never know, here's to a big pattern change after mid Jan! :snowman: It's just a bit of a gut punch looking at the mid range forecasts and seeing nothing below normal for at least a couple weeks.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just seems like the new norm to be a week or so away from Christmas and searching 10, 15,20 , days ahead to look for the big chill and pattern change!? It’s almost like clockwork! We have the magical unicorn ready to pull out of our butts ( SSW) to make the cold and snowy pattern set up, but that’s far from a certainty! I look forward to the snowman pics from Iran and Egypt in the upcoming weeks, as the split goes the wrong way for us! :(

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Just seems like the new norm to be a week or so away from Christmas and searching 10, 15,20 , days ahead to look for the big chill and pattern change!? It’s almost like clockwork! We have the magical unicorn ready to pull out of our butts ( SSW) to make the cold and snowy pattern set up, but that’s far from a certainty! I look forward to the snowman pics from Iran and Egypt in the upcoming weeks, as the split goes the wrong way for us! :(

Seen it happen before......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Just seems like the new norm to be a week or so away from Christmas and searching 10, 15,20 , days ahead to look for the big chill and pattern change!? It’s almost like clockwork! We have the magical unicorn ready to pull out of our butts ( SSW) to make the cold and snowy pattern set up, but that’s far from a certainty! I look forward to the snowman pics from Iran and Egypt in the upcoming weeks, as the split goes the wrong way for us! :(

Well the 2010s have definitely been noted for some impressive winter torches, but to be fair the historic cold last year set in right after Christmas.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Overnight LR guidance looking pretty good.  Lots of good signs showing up as we get into January!

 

Yup, have to agree there. I’m okay with 5 sunny, close to normal days coming up too.  We need to dry out desperately

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well it snowed the day me and my wife went to the hospital to induce her labor for my son to be born. Both his 1st and 2nd birthday parties were affected by snowstorms and had to be moved up a day early and his 3rd birthday is Jan 5th. If the trend keeps up then we should see some snow that weekend. Totally non-scientific but hey a trend is a trend!

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know what y'all are looking at. All of the indices except the PNA are going in the wrong direction or are neutral. CFS is blowtorch across most of the continent as we head into January. The SSW probably won't result in a full PV split and may not propagate downward. The models are slowly backing off that solution. There's a chance of a cold January, but it's far from likely TBH.

  • Like 3
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

I don't know what y'all are looking at. All of the indices except the PNA are going in the wrong direction or are neutral. CFS is blowtorch across most of the continent as we head into January. The SSW probably won't result in a full PV split and may not propagate downward. The models are slowly backing off that solution. There's a chance of a cold January, but it's far from likely TBH.

I see that you are back to your old self, now that all your snow has melted. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

I don't know what y'all are looking at. All of the indices except the PNA are going in the wrong direction or are neutral. CFS is blowtorch across most of the continent as we head into January. The SSW probably won't result in a full PV split and may not propagate downward. The models are slowly backing off that solution. There's a chance of a cold January, but it's far from likely TBH.

gfs_z500a_namer_53.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

gfs_z500a_namer_53.png

But it's 384. The 384 from yesterday's GFS (which is now 360) had significant ridging on both the east and west coasts, with a minimal trough in the middle.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×