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NC_hailstorm

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    Mount Ulla,NC

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  1. NC_hailstorm

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    And look at that,the MJO forecasted to stall,weaken Feb.3-4 with the loop de loop(representing a pull to the Maritime Continent)and reemerge around Feb.11th-12th.What a coincedence. That makes 6 straight coronal hole rotations with the same result if this one happens,let me say that again 6 straight times over the last 120 days or so. And here's a clue for later,this same coronal hole will rotate back in Feb.20th-Mar 1st meaning the MJO will stall,weaken,or get pulled to the Maritime Mar1st-Mar.6th,reemerge Mar.10th-Mar.15th. Everything ENSO related will be amplified in the Solar Grand Minimum this century,these so called "experts" might still be in denial or can't cope or comprehend the magnitude of solar wind,CME's,,cosmic rays,etc. Just my opinion.
  2. NC_hailstorm

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    Coronal hole rotating in today (Jan.24th-Feb.3rd) meaning the MJO will stall,weaken,or get pulled to the Maritime around Feb.2nd-Feb 7th given a 9-14 day lag on this.It should reemerge around Feb.11th-Feb 16th given another 9-14 day lag after the rotation ends(Feb.2nd). MJO should progress and tick stronger the next 10 days solar wind was pretty low Jan.8th-Jan 23rd,should get to p7 maybe p8. Just my opinion.
  3. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    All you want to do is hit the target somewhere more than half the time with all these models,model runs,ensembles,etc.You won't hit a bullseye with every run that's gonna come through here but enough hits keeps you in the hunt. Inside 48 hours is when you wanna start aiming for bullseyes. Just my opinion.
  4. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Agree I'll take that look at day 6 on the Ukie.These heights usually bump north with time and the trajectory of them are more southwest-northeast at day 6 then day 5.
  5. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Ukie has a 1011 low in far south Texas at day 6,pretty low heights across the southeast.
  6. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Ukie has that piece of energy(1009 low)in Alberta at day 6,same thing the GFS and CMC show diving south/southeast to the gulf later on. Bout the only thing to watch at the moment.
  7. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Ukie moved north from 0z and is more amped at 999 in S.central Alabama.Heights behind it and northeast of it are a bit lower though. That looks like a good hit for E.Tennessee and Ky if I had to guess,0z Euro had a 996 coming right through CLT at day 7.
  8. NC_hailstorm

    January 2019 Observations

    Good burst of sleet coming through. 42.3
  9. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Should start to see some stronger high pressures coming down if the SSW was strong and persistent. They'll filter down from the strat to the troposphere,Ukie has a 1039 coming into SE Canada at day 6.
  10. NC_hailstorm

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    By my observations it should start Jan 8th or 9th,10 days from the Dec 29th-Jan.7th rotation.Usually it takes 7-10 days for this to filter through the atmosphere so there is a 7-10 day lag .January 17-18th or so we should see the MJO emerge again after the 7-10 lag after effect. Good news it this latest rotation doesn't seem to be a strong as the Dec 2nd-12th one and the Dec 19-22 surprise flareup. There were 6 days above 500 km/s that rotation with 1 day above 600 km/s,so far into this rotation only 2 days above 500 km/s with two more days to go.This gives me more confidence the MJO should stay a bit stronger a bit longer maybe emerging at a weak phase 6 or 7 but just a guess. Next rotation is Jan.24th but the sun looks pretty quiet Jan 8th-to Jan 23rd which should help keep the tropical forcing out of the Maritime(phase 4,5,6) in the long term.
  11. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Check out the heights crash on the Ukie. Has the 582dm line on the NC/SC border at day 2,then south of Cuba and approaching Jamaica at day 6.That line usually hangs around south/central Florida in a typical winter.
  12. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    The Euro and Ukie look close at day 6 with a decent trough/lower heights,that looks like phase 7-8 mjo signal starting to arrive. Euro has a follow up trough at day 8/9 with lower heights. Carry on with the moaning and complaining.
  13. NC_hailstorm

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    Not winter related but it intensifies tropical storms too. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682618305765?via%3Dihub
  14. NC_hailstorm

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682612000302 A clear solar signature in MJO spectral properties is indeed found and shown to be both statistically significant and robust. The overall correlation with solar activity is found to be stronger in the Indian Ocean. Still observing myself and learning.
  15. NC_hailstorm

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    Better hope the MJO can get to phase 7 or close to 8 by Jan 8th-9th because that's when the 10 day lag/weaken'pull will start and all the models are picking this up already at some degree.Coronal hole rotated around Dec.29th so that gives you 10 days or so to get the MJO to a better phase,where it stalls it what you'll get for at least 10 days.matches up perfectly with the coronal hole rotation. The loop on some of the models represents the attempt to pull the MJO to Maritime continent forcing(phase 4,5,6),the Euro is weaker with the MJO but tries to push it back into phase 4(Maritime continent forcing)which is very possible at the long range. If it doesn't get to phase 7 or 8 you could virtually lose the whole month waiting on another 10 day lag so the race is on .Fascinating to watch and observe once you figure out what to look for. Just my opinion again.
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