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NC_hailstorm

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    Mount Ulla,NC

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  1. NC_hailstorm

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    Let's make it 7 in a row shall we,what another shocking coincidence. CME rotation 2/21-3/2 meaning the MJO will stall/weaken/loop or pull to Maritime around 3/2 -3/8 and that's exactly what MJO forecasts look like around 3/7-3/9.Gonna be a full 15 day lag on this one,sometimes it's 9 or 10.
  2. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Pretty map today.
  3. NC_hailstorm

    February 2019 Observations

    Right on 5'' for the last 7 days,pile of water everywhere.
  4. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Looks like this big cutter coming through this weekend will flip the pattern finally and put the low heights,PV on our side of the hemisphere. MJO has a good chance running out to 3/8 or 3/9 considering this sun rotation is coming much,much weaker than the previous one,first 10 days or so in March are in play IMO.
  5. NC_hailstorm

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    And look at that,the MJO forecasted to stall,weaken Feb.3-4 with the loop de loop(representing a pull to the Maritime Continent)and reemerge around Feb.11th-12th.What a coincedence. That makes 6 straight coronal hole rotations with the same result if this one happens,let me say that again 6 straight times over the last 120 days or so. And here's a clue for later,this same coronal hole will rotate back in Feb.20th-Mar 1st meaning the MJO will stall,weaken,or get pulled to the Maritime Mar1st-Mar.6th,reemerge Mar.10th-Mar.15th. Everything ENSO related will be amplified in the Solar Grand Minimum this century,these so called "experts" might still be in denial or can't cope or comprehend the magnitude of solar wind,CME's,,cosmic rays,etc. Just my opinion.
  6. NC_hailstorm

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    Coronal hole rotating in today (Jan.24th-Feb.3rd) meaning the MJO will stall,weaken,or get pulled to the Maritime around Feb.2nd-Feb 7th given a 9-14 day lag on this.It should reemerge around Feb.11th-Feb 16th given another 9-14 day lag after the rotation ends(Feb.2nd). MJO should progress and tick stronger the next 10 days solar wind was pretty low Jan.8th-Jan 23rd,should get to p7 maybe p8. Just my opinion.
  7. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    All you want to do is hit the target somewhere more than half the time with all these models,model runs,ensembles,etc.You won't hit a bullseye with every run that's gonna come through here but enough hits keeps you in the hunt. Inside 48 hours is when you wanna start aiming for bullseyes. Just my opinion.
  8. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Agree I'll take that look at day 6 on the Ukie.These heights usually bump north with time and the trajectory of them are more southwest-northeast at day 6 then day 5.
  9. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Ukie has a 1011 low in far south Texas at day 6,pretty low heights across the southeast.
  10. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Ukie has that piece of energy(1009 low)in Alberta at day 6,same thing the GFS and CMC show diving south/southeast to the gulf later on. Bout the only thing to watch at the moment.
  11. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Ukie moved north from 0z and is more amped at 999 in S.central Alabama.Heights behind it and northeast of it are a bit lower though. That looks like a good hit for E.Tennessee and Ky if I had to guess,0z Euro had a 996 coming right through CLT at day 7.
  12. NC_hailstorm

    January 2019 Observations

    Good burst of sleet coming through. 42.3
  13. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Should start to see some stronger high pressures coming down if the SSW was strong and persistent. They'll filter down from the strat to the troposphere,Ukie has a 1039 coming into SE Canada at day 6.
  14. NC_hailstorm

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    By my observations it should start Jan 8th or 9th,10 days from the Dec 29th-Jan.7th rotation.Usually it takes 7-10 days for this to filter through the atmosphere so there is a 7-10 day lag .January 17-18th or so we should see the MJO emerge again after the 7-10 lag after effect. Good news it this latest rotation doesn't seem to be a strong as the Dec 2nd-12th one and the Dec 19-22 surprise flareup. There were 6 days above 500 km/s that rotation with 1 day above 600 km/s,so far into this rotation only 2 days above 500 km/s with two more days to go.This gives me more confidence the MJO should stay a bit stronger a bit longer maybe emerging at a weak phase 6 or 7 but just a guess. Next rotation is Jan.24th but the sun looks pretty quiet Jan 8th-to Jan 23rd which should help keep the tropical forcing out of the Maritime(phase 4,5,6) in the long term.
  15. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Check out the heights crash on the Ukie. Has the 582dm line on the NC/SC border at day 2,then south of Cuba and approaching Jamaica at day 6.That line usually hangs around south/central Florida in a typical winter.
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