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NC_hailstorm

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    Mount Ulla,NC

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  1. NC_hailstorm

    General Severe Weather

    Looks like we'll get some fairly potent MCS action over the next 24 hours.The HRRR has the first arriving overnight with two more crossing Saturday afternoon. Damaging winds the big issue most likely,they are really flying moving SE.
  2. NC_hailstorm

    June 2019 OBS

    Heavy rain setting up over the Catawba Co/Hickory area again. Additional rainfall amounts of two inches are possible in the warned area. Extensive urban flooding is expected across the Hickory area through the middle part of the evening. The water will rise very quickly across Hickory because of the rainfall that happened last night.
  3. NC_hailstorm

    June 2019 OBS

    At 1055 PM EDT, Flash flooding will continue around greater Hickory as additional rounds of heavy rainfall overspread the region. In addition, with rainfall totals piling up all across the unifour, flash flooding is likely to expand in coverage as well. In several parts of the warned area, rainfall this evening has totaled as much as 6 inches, and localized additional one to three inches of rain could fall into the late night hours. Some places could get 7-9 inches tonight with a pile more coming this weekend.
  4. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    5 day totals on the Euro today.
  5. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Ukie bringing it on today's run,6 day totals.
  6. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Seasonal forecasts on the Euro for the summer,2m temps and Heights for the next 3 months.
  7. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Euro continues to ramp up the precip,GFS similar.
  8. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Lower heights/trof return tomorrow,death ridge being weakened and pushed back out.Better rain chances begin around day 6 on the Euro,GFS is similar.
  9. NC_hailstorm

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    Let's make it 7 in a row shall we,what another shocking coincidence. CME rotation 2/21-3/2 meaning the MJO will stall/weaken/loop or pull to Maritime around 3/2 -3/8 and that's exactly what MJO forecasts look like around 3/7-3/9.Gonna be a full 15 day lag on this one,sometimes it's 9 or 10.
  10. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Pretty map today.
  11. NC_hailstorm

    February 2019 Observations

    Right on 5'' for the last 7 days,pile of water everywhere.
  12. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Looks like this big cutter coming through this weekend will flip the pattern finally and put the low heights,PV on our side of the hemisphere. MJO has a good chance running out to 3/8 or 3/9 considering this sun rotation is coming much,much weaker than the previous one,first 10 days or so in March are in play IMO.
  13. NC_hailstorm

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    And look at that,the MJO forecasted to stall,weaken Feb.3-4 with the loop de loop(representing a pull to the Maritime Continent)and reemerge around Feb.11th-12th.What a coincedence. That makes 6 straight coronal hole rotations with the same result if this one happens,let me say that again 6 straight times over the last 120 days or so. And here's a clue for later,this same coronal hole will rotate back in Feb.20th-Mar 1st meaning the MJO will stall,weaken,or get pulled to the Maritime Mar1st-Mar.6th,reemerge Mar.10th-Mar.15th. Everything ENSO related will be amplified in the Solar Grand Minimum this century,these so called "experts" might still be in denial or can't cope or comprehend the magnitude of solar wind,CME's,,cosmic rays,etc. Just my opinion.
  14. NC_hailstorm

    Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

    Coronal hole rotating in today (Jan.24th-Feb.3rd) meaning the MJO will stall,weaken,or get pulled to the Maritime around Feb.2nd-Feb 7th given a 9-14 day lag on this.It should reemerge around Feb.11th-Feb 16th given another 9-14 day lag after the rotation ends(Feb.2nd). MJO should progress and tick stronger the next 10 days solar wind was pretty low Jan.8th-Jan 23rd,should get to p7 maybe p8. Just my opinion.
  15. NC_hailstorm

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    All you want to do is hit the target somewhere more than half the time with all these models,model runs,ensembles,etc.You won't hit a bullseye with every run that's gonna come through here but enough hits keeps you in the hunt. Inside 48 hours is when you wanna start aiming for bullseyes. Just my opinion.
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