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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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36 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Maybe, but waiting for winter to start is hard.  It sucks wasting half of the winter.  At least we’re not torching.  It’s just unfortunate that there is no cold air anywhere nearby.

Also, I want to apologize for my bad grammar, fighting off a cold and not up to 100% yet so I didn't catch my spelling mistakes

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Also, I want to apologize for my bad grammar, fighting off a cold and not up to 100% yet so I didn't catch my spelling mistakes

No worries on that dude.  Hope you feel better!

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1 hour ago, mwp1023 said:

I have already had a foot of snow.  If we get 70's from here on out this was a great year! 

Must be nice.  So far, this ties the worst winter ever for me.

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Must be nice.  So far, this ties the worst winter ever for me.
Since it's difficult to get negative snow totals, I suppose zero inches will always tie for the worst winter.

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

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3 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Also, I want to apologize for my bad grammar, fighting off a cold and not up to 100% yet so I didn't catch my spelling mistakes

I know where is the cold air, wake up each morning hoping to see some sign of the cold returning to have a chance to get all this moisture frozen.

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2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

How so?

Even in the crappiest winters I got at least a bit of sleet, zr, and a few flakes of snow, which is all I got this winter so far.  Literally 1-2 miles down the road from me got 3” with the December storm.  I expect winter to get better.  But so far it has sucked rolyally so far for me.

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16 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Even in the crappiest winters I got at least a bit of sleet, zr, and a few flakes of snow, which is all I got this winter so far.  Literally 1-2 miles down the road from me got 3” with the December storm.  I expect winter to get better.  But so far it has sucked rolyally so far for me.

Where exactly are you in Raleigh?  I am guessing somewhere in the south.

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1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Where exactly are you in Raleigh?  I am guessing somewhere in the south.

SE Wake.  Horrible place to live.

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Just now, Cold Rain said:

SE Wake.  Horrible place to live.

Well I come from Fayetteville so we get even less snow there, but I know it must be painful to be near that Wake County gradient.  Looking at snow maps at times it seems that if you looked up the street you can see more snow.

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NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 6m6 minutes ago

 
 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation crossing into the Pacific in the next few days is forecast to help flip the Arctic Oscillation to its negative phase, leading to increased chances of cold air outbreaks over the eastern US in today's Weeks 3&4 outlook. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Dvh1eZeXgAEJx5G.jpg

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1 hour ago, Solak said:

NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 6m6 minutes ago

 
 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation crossing into the Pacific in the next few days is forecast to help flip the Arctic Oscillation to its negative phase, leading to increased chances of cold air outbreaks over the eastern US in today's Weeks 3&4 outlook. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Dvh1eZeXgAEJx5G.jpg

500% precip with 55% below normal...

 

That is looking like a golden ticket

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Maybe a bit more than token flakes here for the mountains/foothills/NW Piedmont...but then again it's still 6 days out. Something to talk about, I guess. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

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I didn't like this month's storm because although I got 5 inches the snow ended before I woke up and turned into a day of pouring rain.

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If the Fv3 GFS is correct most of us, outside the mountains, wont see freezing temps until ~mid January. Of course the Canadian, with its cold bias, says just wait until late next week. 

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50 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

If the Fv3 GFS is correct most of us, outside the mountains, wont see freezing temps until ~mid January. Of course the Canadian, with its cold bias, says just wait until late next week. 

The pattern looks atrocious for the foreseeable future.  The only encouraging thing is the theory that the last half of the winter will be good.  Of course, pretty soon that will probably move from late January and February to February only, much like it has moved from mid-January to now late January.  The MJO has stalled twice now and looped in the bad phases.  Want to place a bet on how many times it does so in the good phases?

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

The pattern looks atrocious for the foreseeable future.  The only encouraging thing is the theory that the last half of the winter will be good.  Of course, pretty soon that will probably move from late January and February to February only, much like it has moved from mid-January to now late January.  The MJO has stalled twice now and looped in the bad phases.  Want to place a bet on how many times it does so in the good phases?

All we can do at this point is hope the change starts occurring soon. Then we could feel the affects by mid month.

The indices do look a little better today:

PNA - Moderately positive moves towards neutral in the short range then back to moderately positive (good)

NAO - Goes strongly negative in the short range, but goes neutral in the LR (with a large spread of positive & negative runs)

AO - Looks to now go negative, with many runs strongly negative. This is a big change from yesterday (good)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

From everything I've read (for where we're at right now), we need the AO to go negative to get NA cold and into a pattern that favors an eastern trough / western ridge.  

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12 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

The pattern looks atrocious for the foreseeable future.  The only encouraging thing is the theory that the last half of the winter will be good.  Of course, pretty soon that will probably move from late January and February to February only, much like it has moved from mid-January to now late January.  The MJO has stalled twice now and looped in the bad phases.  Want to place a bet on how many times it does so in the good phases?

Yeah this epic winter that some thought including myself is quickly going up in flames. I said a month ago if you wanna ruin a winter let the modeled AK trough set up. And it did set up and looks to hold strong. That is one of the most stable winter patterns around when it sets up. Whether its caused by the MJO or not I don't know. The warm blob is all but gone now which should prove sea surface temps don't drive the pattern but are a result of the pattern. If we can't manage a good winter in a moderate Nino and low solar are good winters even possible anymore in this day and age?

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6 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

All we can do at this point is hope the change starts occurring soon. Then we could feel the affects by mid month.

The indices do look a little better today:

PNA - Moderately positive moves towards neutral in the short range then back to moderately positive (good)

NAO - Goes strongly negative in the short range, but goes neutral in the LR (with a large spread of positive & negative runs)

AO - Looks to now go negative, with many runs strongly negative. This is a big change from yesterday (good)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

From everything I've read (for where we're at right now), we need the AO to go negative to get NA cold and into a pattern that favors an eastern trough / western ridge.  

It's all in the MJO and SOI which is apparently influencing the Pacific puke pattern. With it stalling and looping in the warm phases and the SOI being Nina like we are screwed even with the other indices. All we're going to do is block up mild Pacific air.

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Now JB is using 1984 as a stratwarm analog..I still think we get a storm in the first 1/3rd of February but this is just tiresome. Time to abandon ship for a while

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4 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Now JB is using 1984 as a stratwarm analog..I still think we get a storm in the first 1/3rd of February but this is just tiresome. Time to abandon ship for a while

Really need towatch his video from yesterday. 

He explains this procedure,strat warming takes time. He’s been saying for weeks now mid January cold starts. I know patience is tough. 

Im ready for cold and snow too. 

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3 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

Yeah this epic winter that some thought including myself is quickly going up in flames. I said a month ago if you wanna ruin a winter let the modeled AK trough set up. And it did set up and looks to hold strong. That is one of the most stable winter patterns around when it sets up. Whether its caused by the MJO or not I don't know. The warm blob is all but gone now which should prove sea surface temps don't drive the pattern but are a result of the pattern. If we can't manage a good winter in a moderate Nino and low solar are good winters even possible anymore in this day and age?

I don't know why anyone was forecasting an epic winter. But they did generally agree that December would be the warmer month. I think the warmth was just delayed and so now it extends into January.

MJO is looking quite healthy and not in any risk of heading into the zone of death. It's very likely to make it to phase 8 and 1 with some strength. I think we're just going to have a crappy start to January.

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1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Really need towatch his video from yesterday. 

He explains this procedure,strat warming takes time. He’s been saying for weeks now mid January cold starts. I know patience is tough. 

Im ready for cold and snow too. 

If the vortex doesn't split, then it won't matter. What we're looking at is that the vortex may split briefly, but then it recongeals. That's what the GFS shows. If that's what happens, then I don't think it'll help us much.

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54 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

If the vortex doesn't split, then it won't matter. What we're looking at is that the vortex may split briefly, but then it recongeals. That's what the GFS shows. If that's what happens, then I don't think it'll help us much.

Models are having a tough time right now. Give it time to happen. 

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Models are have a tough time figuring out what the MJO is going to do. That's why we have differences between the big three. I am leaning towards the American camp with a slight nod/wish to the CMC. The Euro is out to lunch with regards to the MJO. Look for big changes when it all gets sorted out.

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Not sure if this still holds but the NWS prediction of below normal temps and above normal precip. from Jan 7th thru 18th is still solid I would think.

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We don't need a prolonged cold spell, anyway.  All we need is good timing for a southern system linking up with a shot of cold air, a la early December.    As long as there are some shots of cold air, we have a chance.  At least we don't have the southeast ridge dominating the discussion like 2-3 years ago.

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