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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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12z Euro looks a lot like the ICON this run at 500mb with west coast ridge spike dropping the northern stream down into the southern plains and linking up with the southern wave.  Not a heavy event, but temps look like what we've seen with many of our wintry storms of late....i.e. wintry along and northwest of GSP to CLT to RDU

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

12z Euro looks a lot like the ICON this run at 500mb with west coast ridge spike dropping the northern stream down into the southern plains and linking up with the southern wave.  Not a heavy event, but temps look like what we've seen with many storms of late....i.e. wintry along and northwest of GSP to CLT to RDU

Kinda like a lighter version of the canadian from yesterday. 

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Euro winners are the area around Mt. Mourne/Davidson and Southern Burke County. Both of those areas are just shy of half a foot. 

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In general about 3-5" along a line from Clemson Agricultural College to Chapel Hill plus points N&W.

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2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Euro winners are the area around Mt. Mourne/Davidson and Southern Burke County. Both of those areas are just shy of half a foot. 

Southern VA?

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3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

How do we want it to happen , to get more cold and snow?

The trough over SE Canada out ahead of the storm to trend stronger and farther south, with the associated damming sfc high building in behind that trough to extend more cold air to the south

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11 minutes ago, griteater said:

The trough over SE Canada out ahead of the storm to trend stronger and farther south, with the associated damming sfc high building in behind that trough to extend more cold air to the south

That’s kind of what happened with the December storm, the confluence got stronger on modeling as we got closer, most models had a 1035 or so for that storm, and cold was marginal. Most are modeling this one as a 1040/41, maybe this will trend colder!?

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Definitely looking promising for some sort of wintery event. Thinking/hoping that CAD is a little stronger and more folks can get in the game.

Big difference from the last event is this is popping up much closer to go time.  

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It's definitely not a major event but it would push places like GSP and Charlotte above average on snow for the season. 

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That’s kind of what happened with the December storm, the confluence got stronger on modeling as we got closer, most models had a 1035 or so for that storm, and cold was marginal. Most are modeling this one as a 1040/41, maybe this will trend colder!?

You would think this would trend colder, at least on the surface. I keep on harping on the initial cold, but with dew points falling into the teens before this system arrives the CAD that does set up will have a better chance of verifying colder and farther south.  

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Just now, FallsLake said:

You would think this would trend colder, at least on the surface. I keep on harping on the initial cold, but with dew points falling into the teens before this system arrives the CAD that does set up will have a better chance of verifying colder and farther south.  

Agreed. My gut feeling is it trends wetter just going by seasonal trends. 

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4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

You would think this would trend colder, at least on the surface. I keep on harping on the initial cold, but with dew points falling into the teens before this system arrives the CAD that does set up will have a better chance of verifying colder and farther south.  

For the best winter storms and wedges, don’t we want single digit DP’s?

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4 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Looks like the 12z ICON is on board for a winter storm. At hr 156 has the snow line from SW NC to Raleigh then Rocky Mount. It only shows rain/frozen so I'm sure there is some ice below that line. 

 

Edit: Has the surface freezing line from Greenville SC to south of Charlotte, to south/east of Raleigh.

2

New theorem proposal.

Anytime a model, no matter how far out, has the snow line through Raleigh it should be taken seriously.

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6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

For the best winter storms and wedges, don’t we want single digit DP’s?

Single digits (on GFS) do get into western NC briefly. This is going to be a colder surface then last time. 

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4 minutes ago, jburns said:

New theorem proposal.

Anytime a model, no matter how far out, has the snow line through Raleigh it should be taken seriously.

It seems that has been the rule for the last three years(..at least). I keep wondering when we get another big eastern NC storm.   

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