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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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From GSP AFD long term forecast:

Monday night thru Tuesday...the cool air may set the stage for a
wintry mess with the next storm system. The southern stream jet will
start to amplify and lift northward slightly, placing strong
entrance region upper divergence over the Southern Plains. So the
signal is fairly strong on a very wet storm system developing
somewhere across the southern states, bringing plenty of moisture
into the region around New Day 7. Both the EC and GFS show a strong
CAD developing and thicknesses supporting a mixed bag of precip
types across much of the NC mountains and the I-40 corridor to the
east. PoPs ramp back up to high-end chc to likely with temps mainly
in the 30s to mid 40s.

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IMO, models are starting to cluster to a Classic damming event for next Tuesday. Euro/GFS would be way off with their surface temp depictions if they verified as shown.  12z Euro and 18z GFS look like carbon copies of each other for Tuesday morning. CAD high is in perfect position. the air mass in place isn't that cold, but the source region of the high pressure is fairly cold/dry. 

Edit to add: haven't checked for ensemble support... hope there is some.

 

gfs.png

euro.png

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46 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

IMO, models are starting to cluster to a Classic damming event for next Tuesday. Euro/GFS would be way off with their surface temp depictions if they verified as shown.  12z Euro and 18z GFS look like carbon copies of each other for Tuesday morning. CAD high is in perfect position. the air mass in place isn't that cold, but the source region of the high pressure is fairly cold/dry. 

Edit to add: haven't checked for ensemble support... hope there is some.

 

gfs.png

euro.png

I really feel like we have said “ CAD will trend stronger/ colder” for every system there has been a chance of wintry!? And it simply has not been the case, once! Even Dec event,5 days out models had me at 33/34 and I never went below 33, the last one we had a shot at, I was supposed to hit 32/33 and never made it below 36

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15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I really feel like we have said “ CAD will trend stronger/ colder” for every system there has been a chance of wintry!? And it simply has not been the case, once! Even Dec event,5 days out models had me at 33/34 and I never went below 33, the last one we had a shot at, I was supposed to hit 32/33 and never made it below 36

1. Most of the global models were way too warm for the December event at 5 to 7 day lead times.

2. You didn't make it to 32/33 with the last wedge because it didn't precipitate when it was suppose to.  Had it rained that morning you would have dropped that low or lower. And again, no models had that CAD event anywhere near 32/33 at 5 to 7 day lead times, except maybe the fv3gfs.

3. I'm not saying the CAD will trend stronger with this storm. I am saying that, as depicted on the specific model runs I posted, the surface temperatures they are showing would be too warm.

 

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GSP keeps some idea of a wintry event next week for parts of the area.  BTW...where are all the regular posters?  This place is as dead as Williams Brice in the 4th quarter of Clemson - South Carolina game.

The EC forecasts a stronger high to
our north channeling in cool air as the deep moisture passes Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Thus quite cool and quite wet with some wintry
precip possible for northern parts of the mountains and foothills.
Low pressures riding a front out of the Gulf will not move east of
our area until early Thursday which is after the end of the current
forecast period.
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30 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

GSP keeps some idea of a wintry event next week for parts of the area.  BTW...where are all the regular posters?  This place is as dead as Williams Brice in the 4th quarter of Clemson - South Carolina game.

The EC forecasts a stronger high to
our north channeling in cool air as the deep moisture passes Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Thus quite cool and quite wet with some wintry
precip possible for northern parts of the mountains and foothills.
Low pressures riding a front out of the Gulf will not move east of
our area until early Thursday which is after the end of the current
forecast period.

Much like Gamecock fans, I think most people in here are already saying "wait until next year."  

I like where I'm sitting for next week.

 

 

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Looks like potential storm next week for NC is waning.  Just not our winter around here in Jan-Feb 2019

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32 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

GSP keeps some idea of a wintry event next week for parts of the area.  BTW...where are all the regular posters?  This place is as dead as Williams Brice in the 4th quarter of Clemson - South Carolina game.

The EC forecasts a stronger high to
our north channeling in cool air as the deep moisture passes Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Thus quite cool and quite wet with some wintry
precip possible for northern parts of the mountains and foothills.
Low pressures riding a front out of the Gulf will not move east of
our area until early Thursday which is after the end of the current
forecast period.

Good analogy; sometimes the good in life just doesn't work out. There's hope during darkness, when evil is winning out, but eventually good will overcome again.:thumbsup:

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Well the northwest and Midwest are having epic winters.  Cold and winter storms just set up west and north of us this year.  Maybe we still get something this year.  If not, maybe next year :D

1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Good analogy; sometimes the good in life just doesn't work out. There's hope during darkness, when evil is winning out, but eventually good will overcome again.:thumbsup:

 

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GSP keeps some idea of a wintry event next week for parts of the area.  BTW...where are all the regular posters?  This place is as dead as Williams Brice in the 4th quarter of Clemson - South Carolina game.
The EC forecasts a stronger high toour north channeling in cool air as the deep moisture passes Tuesdayand Tuesday night. Thus quite cool and quite wet with some wintryprecip possible for northern parts of the mountains and foothills.Low pressures riding a front out of the Gulf will not move east ofour area until early Thursday which is after the end of the currentforecast period.


Good one. LOL.

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Something of note to add: Last night in one of his live Facebook posts, Brad Panovich noted that the positions of the last few storms have brought cooler/colder air further south and that trend with the next few storms in the long term seems to be continuing that southward progression. He seemed optimistic that the frequency of the storms coming through could give us a better chance of that cold air and precipitation meeting in the area. He was also optimistic when he said "winter is not over, folks." Makes me wonder with all the crazy weather going on if we'll see that "meeting" sometime in the late-February/early-March timeframe.

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The law of the land (SE) this year has certainly been for models to overestimate the cold push in the long to mid range. As we've gotten closer, the cold hasn't been there at all this year. December snow was the same; for days snow and frozen was shown well into SC. Come go time, only extreme northern SC  got any at all. The models have been too cold everytime this year and I wouldn't expect that to change all of the sudden. We may still have a chance before the end, but it's going to take a much bigger breakdown of the SER, a stronger high than we've seen materialize this year, and setting in for more than a day. Time is not on our side. 

 

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43 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

It looks like this round of runs is not showing any potential. Super quiet in here. Wish we had something to track yall. SMH...

Always next year. This one is toast as far as I'm concerned. Even if we pull off a March miracle I'll take it but March snow isn't my thing. Snow between 65-70 degree days melting in a few hours isn't my thing really.

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There are pretty much no indications in any of the modeling over the next 10-15 days that suggests a turn toward colder weather.  By the end of that period, the pattern may begin to change.  But that is still far from certain.  Whatever is driving this train wreck is locked and loaded for a long time.  By the time we turn, it will likely be later in March.  We may still sneak through a well-timed event, but you might as well flip a coin.  All these intermittent colder solutions 6+ days out end up being warmer as you move in.  Without a true pattern change, I a fear the chances of a big winter storm around here are slim to none.  The SE ridge looks to really flex in about 10 days.

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1 hour ago, Waiting on snow said:

Always next year. This one is toast as far as I'm concerned. Even if we pull off a March miracle I'll take it but March snow isn't my thing. Snow between 65-70 degree days melting in a few hours isn't my thing really.

There is always March 1960 analog to hang our hats on. LMAO! 

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

There are pretty much no indications in any of the modeling over the next 10-15 days that suggests a turn toward colder weather.  By the end of that period, the pattern may begin to change.  But that is still far from certain.  Whatever is driving this train wreck is locked and loaded for a long time.  By the time we turn, it will likely be later in March.  We may still sneak through a well-timed event, but you might as well flip a coin.  All these intermittent colder solutions 6+ days out end up being warmer as you move in.  Without a true pattern change, I a fear the chances of a big winter storm around here are slim to none.  The SE ridge looks to really flex in about 10 days.

I wonder if the SER isn't more of a pattern driver than a result of other teleconnections? I mean we look for ridging to develop over AK, Greenland etc. to drive the pattern. I wonder if ridging in the mid latitudes plays a significant role also? If sea surface temps are the reason for that ****ing ridge year after year I fear we are in a downward spiral toward a permanent SER because we cant stay cold enough long enough to bring sea surface temps around the SE down.

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33 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I wonder if the SER isn't more of a pattern driver than a result of other teleconnections? I mean we look for ridging to develop over AK, Greenland etc. to drive the pattern. I wonder if ridging in the mid latitudes plays a significant role also? If sea surface temps are the reason for that ****ing ridge year after year I fear we are in a downward spiral toward a permanent SER because we cant stay cold enough long enough to bring sea surface temps around the SE down.

I don't know for sure, as I haven't researched it.  When I look at a SST map, though, in general, there are plenty of places with warm anomalies that do not have ridging being continually forced.  My guess is that the SER is a response.  I'm sure there are some feedbacks at work, but generally, it is a response to the placement of negative anomalies elsewhere.  What has been somewhat curious to me has been the frequency of the -EPO pattern in winters of late.  I don't remember hearing all that much about that index before 4-5 years ago.  But we sure have had a lot of -EPOs and an astonishing lack of -NAOs over the last while.  This repeating configuration has certainly favored more central areas of the US than the SE.

I don't have a sense as to how the PNA has acted over the last 5 years or so...I am remembering it being mixed, but it certainly could have been more positive or negative in general than I remember.  What I do remember is not a lot of deep south and southeast snowstorms.  Instead, we get this gradient pattern and front end mix events.  I think that is a product of the EPO and lack of NAO.  We don't get those southern sliders with cold highs to the north anymore.  Everything reforms or cuts, courtesy of no blocking.

But back to the SER, it really hasn't been a stable feature over the last several years.  The thing that stings this year is that nobody saw it coming -- nobody really saw a -PNA/+SER back half of winter.  I guess "backloaded" just don't mean what it used to.  And by the time we're able to break the pattern, it will be beyond the reasonable window for winter weather, most likely.  The GEFS and EPS look horrific as far as the eye can see.  SOI diving, MJO allegedly circling favorably, but nothing but SERs down the line.  We only get two, maybe three months of the year where we can be in winter weather mode, and to waste more than half of it in -PNA purgatory is really disappointing.

Unless something drastically changes, this will go down as the worst winter ever for me.  I'm sure that I've had 1" of snow or less in the past, but the expectations going into this winter are weighted heavily in my mind.  We have had no really wintry days.  By that, I mean one where we had a snow, sleet, or freezing rain event where it was just solidly below freezing all day and you didn't have to worry about the temps.  I mean, we haven't even had a clipper come through forcing random snow showers.  It's just been an awful winter.  Solid F.

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But I thought Bastardi said it was going to be super cold this winter for most of it and those of us in the south were going to see a lot of snow. Guess his hanging on analogs didn't work out so much for him. Way off on everything.

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33 minutes ago, Steven_1974 said:

But I thought Bastardi said it was going to be super cold this winter for most of it and those of us in the south were going to see a lot of snow. Guess his hanging on analogs didn't work out so much for him. Way off on everything.

To be fair he’s not alone. A lot of meteorologist were forecasting a block buster winter. 

The west sure has done well and continues to. Just epic for them. 

Definitely let’s you know man is not in control of weather. Only the Lord above knows what’s in our future. 

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

I don't know for sure, as I haven't researched it.  When I look at a SST map, though, in general, there are plenty of places with warm anomalies that do not have ridging being continually forced.  My guess is that the SER is a response.  I'm sure there are some feedbacks at work, but generally, it is a response to the placement of negative anomalies elsewhere.  What has been somewhat curious to me has been the frequency of the -EPO pattern in winters of late.  I don't remember hearing all that much about that index before 4-5 years ago.  But we sure have had a lot of -EPOs and an astonishing lack of -NAOs over the last while.  This repeating configuration has certainly favored more central areas of the US than the SE.

I don't have a sense as to how the PNA has acted over the last 5 years or so...I am remembering it being mixed, but it certainly could have been more positive or negative in general than I remember.  What I do remember is not a lot of deep south and southeast snowstorms.  Instead, we get this gradient pattern and front end mix events.  I think that is a product of the EPO and lack of NAO.  We don't get those southern sliders with cold highs to the north anymore.  Everything reforms or cuts, courtesy of no blocking.

But back to the SER, it really hasn't been a stable feature over the last several years.  The thing that stings this year is that nobody saw it coming -- nobody really saw a -PNA/+SER back half of winter.  I guess "backloaded" just don't mean what it used to.  And by the time we're able to break the pattern, it will be beyond the reasonable window for winter weather, most likely.  The GEFS and EPS look horrific as far as the eye can see.  SOI diving, MJO allegedly circling favorably, but nothing but SERs down the line.  We only get two, maybe three months of the year where we can be in winter weather mode, and to waste more than half of it in -PNA purgatory is really disappointing.

Unless something drastically changes, this will go down as the worst winter ever for me.  I'm sure that I've had 1" of snow or less in the past, but the expectations going into this winter are weighted heavily in my mind.  We have had no really wintry days.  By that, I mean one where we had a snow, sleet, or freezing rain event where it was just solidly below freezing all day and you didn't have to worry about the temps.  I mean, we haven't even had a clipper come through forcing random snow showers.  It's just been an awful winter.  Solid F.

Yeah it's time to close the blinds on this dumpster fire. I am shocked how this one ended though. I expect 4 out of 5 to be dumpster fires here but I thought this one would deliver.

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