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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Yeah there is one more shot looks like between March ~2nd-5th.  Have a feeling at best it will be like yesterday and today in the Triangle.  Just the way this winter has gone.

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43 minutes ago, ragtop50 said:

For what it's worth, the FV3 has this on the 12Z run for March 4th...

FV3.JPG

GFS is just suppressed which is kinda where you want it this far out....really need the Euro to pick up on it though to think this is gonna be a legit threat

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.thumb.png.9d45ce069c395981d7dd949b7f5b9568.png

 

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Have we really seen a low track across Florida suppressed all winter where we remained cold?  Doubt this will happen.  We get cutters (west) much more in this scenario and hope it does not trend that way

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It would certainly be nice but I can't bet against the pattern. The pattern all winter is for the cold press to be mush less than modeled in the medium range, especially at the mid levels. I can't think of a single time when the mid levels were colder than modeled. Been several times where I was supposed to see at least a sleet pellet or two and got nothing but rain. Even the Dec storm was more sleet than anticipated for my area. The storm track trend has been further north and the surface temps have been underwhwelming all winter. As much as I would love see some snow I just can't see the indeces lining up all the sudden as we head into met Spring. I'll stay tuned to see what happens but the towel is ready to go and I've been holding it for a long time. Verbatim on that GFS, we'd need a high to the north or it's gonna cut again like all the others. The FV3 has a high but it's sliding and too weak. 

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4 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said:

WINTER CANCEL. 

Technically our Dec snow was in the fall, so we never really had a winter to begin with.  So I think WINTER FAIL might be more appropriate.  

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The last few runs of the GEFS have had about half of the members with snow in north GA at about 240, 1/3 of the EPS have small amounts. So it is on my radar barely but given how lousy this winter has been so far not optimistic- still just basically waiting for more thunderstorms.

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59 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Remember that cold blast the models were showing a few weeks back, it had highs in the teens for NC!?? And then the actual temps verified at 5-10 degrees below normal!? How do y’all think a 10 day , early March cold snap will work out?

I don't know we're pretty good at getting cold rain to verify in March and April.

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The 12z GFS/GEFS/FV3 suite is good for NC/SC around March 4-6... starting to show something promising with consistency.

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Yeah, that was a good run for both the GFS, Fv3 and CMC. Can't look at the details (past day 7); just know a storm with available cold (in the area) is showing.  

Any support from the 12z euro?

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24 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Good to see cold but that looks like backside cold after the low and precip pass; ie cold chasing moisture. 

Nope, it's a gulf low with a perfect track. Cold is already established.

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5 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Nope, it's a gulf low with a perfect track. Cold is already established.

and wherever it isnt snowing, that thing is about to pop a comma head. 

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