SN_Lover

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Everything posted by SN_Lover

  1. I do this for a living, but okay. @Wow , feel free to remove my account.
  2. You are correct, the synoptics are completely different this time though. Nothing in the upperlevels supports a extreme heavy snow event. More likely light to moderate.
  3. It's about the H5 and Jet Steam, that's what matters.
  4. I did and it's just QPF maps which changes every run. I am looking and seeing nothing as aforementioned in my post. I think Brad is a respected met and can see his forecasting reasoning. People calling his maps "lazy" is really insulting to all the great work he has done.
  5. What's shifting Noth? SLP, QPF, etc.? QPF changes from run to run and will not be the exact same at every model run. The area of the low is in the right exit region of the jet steak which is the area of descent. Also, the zonal does not aid to deepen the low and the trough is tilted positive. ECMWF and GFS show similar results at H5.
  6. What exact trends have you seen besides QPF and SLP fluctuations?
  7. Not going to happen. Jet streams are completely different than 2003. 2020 2003 The low SLP is over a un-favorable location for this current system, in contrast to the 2003 storm. Also, H5 does not provide any evidence of overamplification. Trough more tilted in 2003. 2020. Trough more zonal now. I think Brads forecast is on the money and maybe not conservative enough. Still a great storm to see some flakes! Any flakes should be a win!
  8. Climo always wins. Climo says the ridge is over amplified and will weaken and this is a ots. Maybe this rare chance it's wrong. Also shear is 20kts over Dorian right now. Not conducive for strengthening.
  9. Just trying to give my scientific opinion viewpoint. I will try and be more detailed.
  10. That one. 63 degree dew point is very dry. It's still within the threshold.
  11. I think the downslope effect from CUBA is the cause for that dry air. Maybe CUBA is effecting this storm
  12. To the Southwest. It's the yellow color. SAL is also increasing.
  13. There is a blob of dry air to the South. That's why we are witness to the "hook".
  14. That's dry air mixing in, we saw this with Harvey also.
  15. It's still battling dry air and shear. I'm hoping this is a weakening trend! The ridge has trended towards a recurve too.
  16. Dry air and shear really doing a number on Dorian. As long as we have that convective burst to the East, don't see this going through RI. Rather see a ragged storm than a structured one at this point and the future.
  17. Going straight for Mexico City Beach again on the European. Wow.
  18. Florida dumped the strict Miami building code also. This will be another test in 2 years to see if it was the right choice.
  19. Can confirm after driven in that area that it is 60% or more swamp.
  20. Not good considering the costal plain has zero elevation change and it like a pan.
  21. I just hope that we don't get this again...it could happen.