Looking at today's models, as well as taking Climo into account, the Superbowl Sunday threat is something that should not be taken lightly, IMHO. I think one of two things will happen with this system:
1.) The small disturbance that is progged to push through on Friday will help slow down the HP that is funneling through. This will serve as a hybrid type of blocking, which will aid with keeping the HP from exiting stage right. The cold air will be able to hang around, which will alter the Precipitation type, which will be MORE of a MIXED BAG of ip/sn, with periods of rain mixed in. The CAD will be sorely underestimated by the models. I personally feel that when all is said and done, the surface temps will end up SIGNIFICANTLY colder than progged.
2.) In-situ damning will take place, with the same end result, but possibly MORE rain than mix of ip/SN, because of kess colder air to work with. The models have been keying on this moreso than # 1. I feel the trends will turn tonight or by 12z runs tomorrow, which will show more deeper/colder solutions.
NOTE # 1:
I have included a shot of the 18z GFS. Notice the CAD showing up more pronounced than in previous, recent runs?? This will only deepen as we get closer to "go time".
NOTE # 2:
The OVERALL trend this year has been for winter threats to end up with a more deeper, colder solution, as we edge closer to the "go time". The Operational Models have been horrible with keying in on this, IN THIS TIMEFRAME WE ARE IN NOW. Watch for more changes tonight and especially tomorrow. It seems a blend of the ICON/Canadian has been the winner in the past Storms. No?
Please flame away. I am trying to put my 2 pennies on this. Thanks and let's hope we can still have a FAB FEB, MACK BUFFET STYLE. LMAO!