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nchighcountrywx

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About nchighcountrywx

  • Rank
    NC NW High Country Weather

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTNB
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Banner Elk NC Avery County
  • Interests
    N.C. High Country: Avery Watauga Mitchell and Yancey Counties
    Avid Outdoor Sportsman
    Snow Skiing: Alpine and Cross Country
    Hiking, Backpacking and Camping the NC High Country
    Cartography
    Bushcrafting
    NCHA Cutting Horses
    Meteorology
    Scottish Heritage Piping and Drumming:
    : Clan MacLeod & Clan MacPherson
    Running
    Sacred Choral Music & Early Music: Monteverdi Vespers
    My Christian Faith
    Study of the Holy Bible
    My Career: IBM ISeries / AS400

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  1. nchighcountrywx

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    Mesoscale Discussion https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1702.html Mesoscale Discussion 1702 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sun Dec 09 2018 Areas affected...Portions of northern SC...western/central NC...far eastern TN...and southern VA Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 090808Z - 091315Z SUMMARY...Snow, sleet, and freezing rain will continue this morning. Heavy snow, with rates of 1-2 inches per hour, should be most common across parts of western/central NC into southern VA. Freezing rain, with rates potentially up to 0.10 inch per hour, may develop over portions of northern SC into southern/central NC. DISCUSSION...A large precipitation shield has overspread parts of the Southeast into the southern Mid-Atlantic this morning ahead of a southern-stream shortwave trough over the lower MS Valley. Moderate to heavy snow has been observed over western NC and vicinity over the past couple of hours as cold air damming related to a strong surface high centered over PA remains in place over parts of NC/SC and VA. Enhanced snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour should become common across portions of western/central NC into southern VA through 13Z as strong lift occurring through a saturated dendritic growth zone supports efficient wet snow production. A transition to sleet, freezing rain, and eventually rain should occur from south to north for portions of northern SC into southern/central NC and vicinity as temperatures within the 900-700 mb layer gradually warn above freezing. At 08Z, the surface wetbulb freezing line extends from roughly AVL to RDU in NC, and how much farther south it will advance this morning remains unclear. The timing of the changeover from snow to sleet/freezing rain also remains uncertain, but most short-term guidance suggests it will occur first in western SC (as recently observed at KGSP), and gradually spread northeastward into southern/central NC over the next few hours. Given the ongoing light to moderate precipitation noted on area radars, freezing rain rates up to 0.10 inch per hour may occur, but surface temperatures near freezing across this region may tend to limit ice accretion outside of the higher terrain. ..Gleason.. 12/09/2018
  2. nchighcountrywx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    NAM output courtesy of Wright Weather Snow Sleet Freezing Rain
  3. nchighcountrywx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    HRRR for Sunday 4am
  4. nchighcountrywx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    Updated WPC Guidance and Discussion https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd
  5. nchighcountrywx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    1AM Sunday
  6. nchighcountrywx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    New WPC Probabilities
  7. nchighcountrywx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    And the Sunday 0Z HRRR Simulated Radar
  8. nchighcountrywx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    I think someone else posted it, but this is what the HRRR does to temperatures mid afternoon Saturday Reason for concern: Yes
  9. nchighcountrywx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    WPC Maps
  10. nchighcountrywx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    WPC Heavy Snowfall Discussion https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd
  11. nchighcountrywx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    Mike Dross (‪@MikeWDross‬) 12/6/18, 14:52 ‪@AlConklin‬ Yep. It gets started /w deterministic snowfall maps from GFS/ECMWF that are flawed to begin with, not to mention 5+ days out. By the time we get into the mesoscale model time frame (when we actually know what's likely), public already going off flawed/inferior/old model data. +100
  12. nchighcountrywx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    Cutting totals way back
  13. nchighcountrywx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    NWS has lots of key decisions today. I would not be surprised to see this migrate over into primarily a sleet event outside of the mountains into the western piedmont.
  14. nchighcountrywx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    WPC Discussion https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd ...Southern Appalachians... Day 3... Developing low pressure along the Gulf Coast will strengthen and push eastward to be near the GA/SC coast at the end of day 3. This low will develop in response to a southern stream shortwave moving through the Arklatex and into the TN Valley, as well as diffluence within the right entrance region to an upper jet streaking across New England. Guidance is in reasonably good agreement in the evolution and placement of this surface low, with the NAM a strong and very cold outlier, while the CMC is too fast with the phasing of northern stream energy, and is pulling the surface low too far north too quickly. A blend of the GEFS and ECEns mean is preferred, which suggests precipitation spreading across the Southeast during Saturday. The guidance has overall slowed precip onset due to dry air within a strong wedge of high pressure which remains in place as a result of robust mid-level confluence. E/SE low and mid-level winds spread northward atop the surface wedge, isentropic lift will increase, and precipitation will gradually saturate the column. This will result in wet-bulb cooling of the thermal profile and snow/sleet/freezing rain is all likely to develop Saturday night, with snow in the higher terrain and freezing rain/sleet elsewhere. Despite model differences in timing and p-type, there is a strong multi-model signal for more than 4 inches of snow in the Southern Appalachians before 12Z/Sunday and this is where WPC probabilities are highest for accumulating snow. Some uncertainty exists into how far north precipitation will spread on Day 3 due to dry air inhibition, and there is likely to be a sharp north gradient to snowfall. Additionally, a period of freezing rain and sleet is likely in portions of the mountains and foothills, and WPC probabilities have increased to 20 percent for 0.25 inches of accretion across portions of the area.
  15. nchighcountrywx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    Glanced at 6z GFS Buffkit Hickory snow is way down from 20"+ yesterday to 6" today Winston is at 13" RDU at 0 CLT at 4 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=khky
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