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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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2 minutes ago, Wow said:

NAM has caved to the FV3 and its allies.  Flatter, weaker southern wave.  Less WAA, less GOM convection moisture robbing thus no dry slot.  Good stuff.

If the FV3 got this right, the totals will be huge. It has been very consistent. 

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2 minutes ago, localyokelweather said:

Yea, the Southern Highlands Plateau is a safe bet for us. Franklin is a tough call with Bryson a close second. Our final map comes out later this morning but I think we'll push a larger than usual snow total range (instead of the usual 1 - 2", go with 1 - 4" for example) to show the uncertainty as it relates to distance between totals, location and elevation. A fun storm to track no doubt and I'm curious to see what Lake Toxaway reports when its all said and done. Have a safe and fun time bud! 

From Highlands to Hendersonville are going to get lambasted.

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looks like nws GSP was right to go against ishomue with the NAM's thermal profile... lol

Too early to claim victory though, it could easily go the other way as the event unfolds.

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1 minute ago, RTPGiants said:

This is going to be a heck of a NAM run. This puts nearly all the models into consensus, right? Is there still an outlier?

Yes, except colder.  At least for the upstate folks..

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8 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

upstate to clt back to all snow at 51 with the lp just offshore sc.  mercy.

 

1

To Wow's point if you look at hi-res precip type you can see now it's more of a rain/snow battle then flips to sleet for most. I still think this trends colder and you get snow creeping further south. Plus with so much moisture and again thickness right on the edge it should flip it to snow for the most part. 

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1 minute ago, localyokelweather said:

Hope you didn't read those totals as estimated amounts but more so the example of extending the range for the snow map. You're in a prime spot as well! 

My comment was a general response to the discussion not a counter to any specifics. :snowing:

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1 minute ago, localyokelweather said:

Hope you didn't read those totals as estimated amounts but more so the example of extending the range for the snow map. You're in a prime spot as well! 

Its gonna be interesting to see if the snow line falls at the balsams or is able to push back to the AT on the clay/macon line. 

If we can get the NE winds shown on the nam and the rates it might workout here. It could just as easily be a few inches of slop!

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9 minutes ago, Lookout said:

yep....850 mb low and thus winds are more easterly than southeasterly  in the upstate and north ga. it's very very close to snowing in much of ne ga by late in the day. The killer for north ga continues to be the warm nose the nam shows between 700mb and 850mb though but it's much cooler this run with it. Considering how heavy the precip is i wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of mixing though now just about area wide. 

Also, the trend in the models here lately is to be a little further north with that finger of precip. That has possible cooling ramifications for ne ga too as the air is colder over the western carolinas so after wetbulbing that air advects into north ga. It does north ga no good to have it so far south as the models have been showing until recently. 

Overall a much better look if one is hoping to see something other than freezing rain or rain in ne ga and a better overall snowy look for the upstate.

 

Will the fact that the rain has already arrived in NGA have an effect? Keep our temps cooler? This precip seems earlier, as there was suppose to be some sun today.....looks like the NAM maybe showed this some

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41 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I honestly can't decide what it's going to do in the northern upstate. I think the most logical outcome is mostly cold rain, but there's definitely a chance we could get buried.  I'll remain cautiously optimistic, but expect 1 inch of sleet accumulation for my storm total.

If that lead finger of precip could be mostly snow for us, we could really rack up. It appears the mid-levels will be borderline cold enough for the finger... but surface temps are around 35-37. If the mid-levels are cold enough, i imagine we could cool the surface down to 32-33 with heavy rates inside the finger.

Regardless, the mountains on the NC/SC border are going to get obliterated, both by the lead finger and the main storm. I'm calling the jackpot for the storm as somewhere around rosman/brevard with a total of 20 inches.

 

 

 

 

 

its hard for here as well since its such a close call.  I am hoping the slightly south trends mean the CAD will be coming in a little stronger. However, historically for NE GA, at least, CAD events are ice ice baby.  Sometimes a front end thump of snow but usually ice (since I am apparently one of the "odd ones" who enjoys all winter wx a good ice storm doesn't really bother me).  my issue with a good glaze is more how heavy the precipitation is. if its too heavy and not into the 20s it might not really ice over all that much

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Better run for the RDU folks. At hr 54 we're actually showing a little less snow (on the fantasy snow maps) then the 6z run, but more of what falls is snow. 

I haven't looked at all the profiles yet but still looks like a good bit of zr for the RDU area.  I'm still not sold on this being a big event for the RDU area.  I'm not trying to be negative, just what I see.

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6 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Go home NAM you're drunk. This run is bonkers...just bonkers. Backs up FV3 too...just insane. Guess my gut was right :P

 

5c0a82afac03a.png

I cannot wait to see the clown map for the NAM, just to compare to the FV-3

 

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5 minutes ago, burgertime said:

To John Wow's point if you look at hi-res precip type you can see now it's more of a rain/snow battle then flips to sleet for most. I still think this trends colder and you get snow creeping further south. Plus with so much moisture and again thickness right on the edge it should flip it to snow for the most part. 

I like where I am at in Belmont, NC

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1 minute ago, rduwx said:

I haven't looked at all the profiles yet but still looks like a good bit of zr for the RDU area.  I'm still not sold on this being a big event for the RDU area.  I'm not trying to be negative, just what I see.

We're going to be on the line for some type of transition. Hopefully that snow line stays south and east as long as it can. But agreeing with your point, we know our area well; I would think we get a good initial thumping of snow and then it goes to ice. **and then rain for some and then back to a little wintery precip before it ends. 

 

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1 minute ago, eyewall said:

The storm has busted so far in the Southern Plains.  

Sure has and a good point. Note though there is no GoM or CAD in effect for that region like there will be in our area.

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From the talking heads on TV WX and the RAH NWS office, if you live east and south of Roxboro, it will be a cold rain.  They appear to be about as entrenched in their forecast as the models appear to be saying they are wrong.  It's like a battle of wills.  P.S.  Amazing posts from everyone here since starting earlier this week.  Looking forward to the post-storm forensics!

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