December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[donsutherland1]

22 minutes ago, burgertime said:

By the way here is the 6z RGEM snowfall map out to hour 54

 

 

Here's the RGEM through 84 hours (with a caveat that 84 hours is outside its best range):

[PackWxMan]

I dont agree the NAM is trending south... here is the latest NAM and I feel its been like this several runs

[Poimen]

Forsyth county peeps: The EURO and NAM both drop 10-15" across our county. You can't ask for a better combo at this range in my opinion. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

2 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

I dont agree the NAM is trending south... here is the latest NAM and I feel its been like this several runs

It has trended south from yesterday's runs, but still playing catch-up. Don't worry, by tonight the models will likely converge.

[FallsLake]

5 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

Even the NAM has slowly been trending more southern i think it'll come in line with the other models pretty soon

It's (now) at least a major ice storm for many (including Triangle folks).

[PackGrad05]

That NAM snowfall map posted above only goes through 1 PM Sunday.  Lots of QPF left after that time.

[PackWxMan]

 I will still put a $10 bill on the table and confidently say: This is sleet and frz rain Meck to Wake county. Snow totals of magnitude confined to W and NW NC. CLT and RAH will see snow, but sharing an FV3 map is as weenie as it comes. 60%sleet/30%frz rain/10%snow CLT and Rah.

[ryan1234]

What I find a bit interesting and it most likely will have nothing to do with our area, is how the WSW's and WWA's have shifted quite a bit south in TX and OK. Before OKC was expecting 4-8 inches, that has gone down and that line of heavier snow has shifted to the south.

[GunBlade]

40 minutes ago, burgertime said:

By the way here is the 6z RGEM snowfall map out to hour 54

 

 

Good sign for us folks living on a razors edge that the RGEM is already showing the same totals or more here as NAM out to only 54 hours.  If the GFS and others trend just a little further south and get the Meck Union county line into the bullseye area I’ll feel a lot more comfortable that we at least end up with more than 1 or 2 inches of snow and a lot of ice.  I’ve said it a few times before, it can pay off being this close if we end up on the right side of that dividing line.  Here’s to hoping!

[Poimen]

4 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

 I will still put a $10 bill on the table and confidently say: This is sleet and frz rain Meck to Wake county. Snow totals of magnitude confined to W and NW NC. CLT and RAH will see snow, but sharing an FV3 map is as weenie as it comes. 60%sleet/30%frz rain/10%snow CLT and Rah.

There is no doubt that ice will be a significant problem in these areas. However, northern Wake could see a good period of snow before transitioning to sleet/freezing rain. 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

That NAM snowfall map posted above only goes through 1 PM Sunday.  Lots of QPF left after that time.

Thanks for posting that. Didn’t catch it when first looked at map. 

I’m 57 and I don’t ever remember seeing a storm of this size this early in the season. WOW

[Amos83]

Today begins my favorite part of the storm, the nowcasting. We can start comparing the actual storm to model forecasts. Rain has already made it to Huntsville. 

[wxdawg10]

someone posted a link to a really discussion from NWS blacksburg that mentioned the WAA may not be as pronounced as originally modeled for anyone wondering. might be another reason why totals are getting beefed up by the models. might be picking up on it.  it'll prob still mix around wake co but more wintry atleast at this point

[GunBlade]

GSP due to release updated maps shortly but this summarizes living in NC lol.  9/10 chance of greater than 0” lol and 1/10 of greater than a foot.  Wow

[lilj4425]

3 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

someone posted a link to a really discussion from NWS blacksburg that mentioned the WAA won't be as pronounced as originally modeled for anyone wondering why totals are getting beefed up

WPC also stated this. Good to see. 

[burgertime]

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's the RGEM through 84 hours (with a caveat that 84 hours is outside its best range):

 

Thanks for sharing! 

[burgertime]

4 minutes ago, Amos83 said:

Today begins my favorite part of the storm, the nowcasting. We can start comparing the actual storm to model forecasts. Rain has already made it to Huntsville. 

Yep, gonna start putting more emphasis on the short range models as well. Also for CLT to RDU seeing what's happening real time is gonna be crucial. I'm really curious to see if the 12z NAM trends colder..I'm almost willing to bet it does. 

[burgertime]

13 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

 I will still put a $10 bill on the table and confidently say: This is sleet and frz rain Meck to Wake county. Snow totals of magnitude confined to W and NW NC. CLT and RAH will see snow, but sharing an FV3 map is as weenie as it comes. 60%sleet/30%frz rain/10%snow CLT and Rah.

Well when everyone acknowledges how weenie it is, does it really make you a weenie? I think that's probably a safe bet but I would drop the ZR a little and up the snow. 

[Poimen]

31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's the RGEM through 84 hours (with a caveat that 84 hours is outside its best range):

If my math is correct, that's roughly 1.5" qpf for NW NC, which is in line with other guidance overnight.  Don, thanks for contributing to our forum!

[wxduncan]

Do you guys think this will continue to trend south? If so would that put the foothills out of the 12-18 forecasted and move it to CLT?

[burgertime]

1 minute ago, wxduncan said:

Do you guys think this will continue to trend south? If so would that put the foothills out of the 12-18 forecasted and move it to CLT?

Foothills and mountains very much still in play. Just because it moved south doesn't man the bullseye moves south with it if the cold air doesn't do it's thing. WNC is still in the best position right now. 

[PackWxMan]

4 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

Do you guys think this will continue to trend south? If so would that put the foothills out of the 12-18 forecasted and move it to CLT?

CLT will not be getting 12-18. 

[GunBlade]

22 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

 I will still put a $10 bill on the table and confidently say: This is sleet and frz rain Meck to Wake county. Snow totals of magnitude confined to W and NW NC. CLT and RAH will see snow, but sharing an FV3 map is as weenie as it comes. 60%sleet/30%frz rain/10%snow CLT and Rah.

Those maps still paint an obvious picture of the trend of snow totals moving south across the models.  Amounts aren’t a big deal but when CLT is moving into the jackpot of the clown maps it’s just as crazy to say they see 10% snow as it is to say they see the clown totals being shown.   

[Poimen]

According to the NWS probabilities, roughly a 50% possibility of more than one foot in Forsyth. 

[PackWxMan]

1 minute ago, GunBlade said:

Those maps still paint an obvious picture of the trend of snow totals moving south across the models.  Amounts aren’t a big deal but when CLT is moving into the jackpot of the clown maps it’s just as crazy to say they see 10% snow as it is to say they see the clown totals being shown.   

Well. That’s why they are callled clown maps. Lol. 

[CentralNC]

5 minutes ago, Poimen said:

According to the NWS probabilities, roughly a 50% possibility of more than one foot in Forsyth. 

Where are you seeing that.  Looks like 10% on WPC winter weather product

[Poimen]

1 minute ago, CentralNC said:

Where are you seeing that.  Looks like 10% on WPC winter weather product

It's on the RAH "Winter Weather" age under the probabilities tab. 

[Nick Esasky]

Haven't seen much discussion of N GA based on the overnight runs.  Is ATL pretty much out of the woods as far as significant ice?  I'm guessing maybe a dusting on Monday on the back end might happen, but nothing more?

[GunBlade]

Winter storm warnings out from GSP. 

[mckinnonwg]

3 minutes ago, Nick Esasky said:

Haven't seen much discussion of N GA based on the overnight runs.  Is ATL pretty much out of the woods as far as significant ice?  I'm guessing maybe a dusting on Monday on the back end might happen, but nothing more?

I think we are going to see mostly rain and maybe a slight possibility like you are saying on the back end of the event.  Models have been very consistent regarding the wedge from the NE.  The 850 tropical temps are going to keep it an all rain event for ATL.  The NE portion of GA is where the action will occur and that is even being discussed as minimal impacts.  The area we need to monitor will be early monday morning to monday night.  That time frame is still uncertain with the short range models just now bringing it into frame.