burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Here's the RGEM through 84 hours (with a caveat that 84 hours is outside its best range): Thanks for sharing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Amos83 said: Today begins my favorite part of the storm, the nowcasting. We can start comparing the actual storm to model forecasts. Rain has already made it to Huntsville. Yep, gonna start putting more emphasis on the short range models as well. Also for CLT to RDU seeing what's happening real time is gonna be crucial. I'm really curious to see if the 12z NAM trends colder..I'm almost willing to bet it does. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: I will still put a $10 bill on the table and confidently say: This is sleet and frz rain Meck to Wake county. Snow totals of magnitude confined to W and NW NC. CLT and RAH will see snow, but sharing an FV3 map is as weenie as it comes. 60%sleet/30%frz rain/10%snow CLT and Rah. Well when everyone acknowledges how weenie it is, does it really make you a weenie? I think that's probably a safe bet but I would drop the ZR a little and up the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Here's the RGEM through 84 hours (with a caveat that 84 hours is outside its best range): If my math is correct, that's roughly 1.5" qpf for NW NC, which is in line with other guidance overnight. Don, thanks for contributing to our forum! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Do you guys think this will continue to trend south? If so would that put the foothills out of the 12-18 forecasted and move it to CLT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, wxduncan said: Do you guys think this will continue to trend south? If so would that put the foothills out of the 12-18 forecasted and move it to CLT? Foothills and mountains very much still in play. Just because it moved south doesn't man the bullseye moves south with it if the cold air doesn't do it's thing. WNC is still in the best position right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, wxduncan said: Do you guys think this will continue to trend south? If so would that put the foothills out of the 12-18 forecasted and move it to CLT? CLT will not be getting 12-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 22 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: I will still put a $10 bill on the table and confidently say: This is sleet and frz rain Meck to Wake county. Snow totals of magnitude confined to W and NW NC. CLT and RAH will see snow, but sharing an FV3 map is as weenie as it comes. 60%sleet/30%frz rain/10%snow CLT and Rah. Those maps still paint an obvious picture of the trend of snow totals moving south across the models. Amounts aren’t a big deal but when CLT is moving into the jackpot of the clown maps it’s just as crazy to say they see 10% snow as it is to say they see the clown totals being shown. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 According to the NWS probabilities, roughly a 50% possibility of more than one foot in Forsyth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, GunBlade said: Those maps still paint an obvious picture of the trend of snow totals moving south across the models. Amounts aren’t a big deal but when CLT is moving into the jackpot of the clown maps it’s just as crazy to say they see 10% snow as it is to say they see the clown totals being shown. Well. That’s why they are callled clown maps. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Poimen said: According to the NWS probabilities, roughly a 50% possibility of more than one foot in Forsyth. Where are you seeing that. Looks like 10% on WPC winter weather product Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, CentralNC said: Where are you seeing that. Looks like 10% on WPC winter weather product It's on the RAH "Winter Weather" age under the probabilities tab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Esasky Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Haven't seen much discussion of N GA based on the overnight runs. Is ATL pretty much out of the woods as far as significant ice? I'm guessing maybe a dusting on Monday on the back end might happen, but nothing more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Winter storm warnings out from GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Nick Esasky said: Haven't seen much discussion of N GA based on the overnight runs. Is ATL pretty much out of the woods as far as significant ice? I'm guessing maybe a dusting on Monday on the back end might happen, but nothing more? I think we are going to see mostly rain and maybe a slight possibility like you are saying on the back end of the event. Models have been very consistent regarding the wedge from the NE. The 850 tropical temps are going to keep it an all rain event for ATL. The NE portion of GA is where the action will occur and that is even being discussed as minimal impacts. The area we need to monitor will be early monday morning to monday night. That time frame is still uncertain with the short range models just now bringing it into frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 time for an obs thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 hour ago, burgertime said: I think FV3 seeing ALL precip as snow. Has close to 3 inches of QPF for most of that 30 inch area...850's look pretty good. So cut the actual snow ratio down a bit and you're still at like 12-20 inches if that were to verify. What if it is correct? I see all the models trending south, hence, this has to mean the cold air is stronger/dryer? I would think this has to bode well for us snow hounds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 With this being so close to the start of the Winter Storm tomorrow, I feel we need to remember to not lose sight of looking at Radar Trends. They can tell a lot. For example, look at the expansiveness of the moisture. WOW! Someone is MOST DEFINITELY GOING TO GET CLOCKED! http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true i KNOW this is Intellicast Radar, but I am posting this for the ease of viewing, to help any newbies, etc. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This system is pretty far suppressed so far. I think folks in VA might get whiffed outside of the southern portion and even they might not get much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I think we see WWA for central/eastern counties later today. I don't see Wake going under WSW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 I'm sitting here laughing because if the southern trend continues my snowfall map from last night will be proven right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The FV-3 is another whopper for western NC. The Kuchera map is insane again. Obviously, this model may have a problem with its qpf output, as it seems to be higher than others, though the EC/GGEM aren't far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: The FV-3 is another whopper for western NC. The Kuchera map is insane again. Obviously, this model may have a problem with its qpf output, as it seems to be higher than others, though the EC/GGEM aren't far behind. Yea just as others say cut the snow maps in half I assume half the QPF as well as models overdo QPF many times. Somewhere will get it but it’s never as widespread as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Poimen said: The FV-3 is another whopper for western NC. The Kuchera map is insane again. Obviously, this model may have a problem with its qpf output, as it seems to be higher than others, though the EC/GGEM aren't far behind. Would love to see the Kuchera map. Also — is there a public site for those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Hope it is okay, figured I'd start an official obs thread for the storm. Mods feel free to delete if needed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 16 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: With this being so close to the start of the Winter Storm tomorrow, I feel we need to remember to not lose sight of looking at Radar Trends. They can tell a lot. For example, look at the expansiveness of the moisture. WOW! Someone is MOST DEFINITELY GOING TO GET CLOCKED! http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true i KNOW this is Intellicast Radar, but I am posting this for the ease of viewing, to help any newbies, etc. Here is base reflectivity as well https://weather.us/radar-us/usa/20181207-124600z.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, beanskip said: Would love to see the Kuchera map. Also — is there a public site for those? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: All the snow maps at www.weathernerds.org are supposed to use the Kuchera method. It's a cool site that I didn't know about until earlier this week. Here is the 6Z FV 3 and the 0Z Canadian. I found out about the site last week as well. Not as user-friendly as some of the larger sites but for a stand-alone site, it does pretty dang well. Love how you can plot specific points and I prefer some of their contour maps over others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The model runs continue to look fantastic. Great to see them stay consistent or get even better the closer we get. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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