donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2018 22 minutes ago, burgertime said: By the way here is the 6z RGEM snowfall map out to hour 54 Here's the RGEM through 84 hours (with a caveat that 84 hours is outside its best range): 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 I dont agree the NAM is trending south... here is the latest NAM and I feel its been like this several runs Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Forsyth county peeps: The EURO and NAM both drop 10-15" across our county. You can't ask for a better combo at this range in my opinion. 7 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: I dont agree the NAM is trending south... here is the latest NAM and I feel its been like this several runs It has trended south from yesterday's runs, but still playing catch-up. Don't worry, by tonight the models will likely converge. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: Even the NAM has slowly been trending more southern i think it'll come in line with the other models pretty soon It's (now) at least a major ice storm for many (including Triangle folks). Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PackGrad05 Posted December 7, 2018 That NAM snowfall map posted above only goes through 1 PM Sunday. Lots of QPF left after that time. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 I will still put a $10 bill on the table and confidently say: This is sleet and frz rain Meck to Wake county. Snow totals of magnitude confined to W and NW NC. CLT and RAH will see snow, but sharing an FV3 map is as weenie as it comes. 60%sleet/30%frz rain/10%snow CLT and Rah. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ryan1234 Posted December 7, 2018 What I find a bit interesting and it most likely will have nothing to do with our area, is how the WSW's and WWA's have shifted quite a bit south in TX and OK. Before OKC was expecting 4-8 inches, that has gone down and that line of heavier snow has shifted to the south. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GunBlade Posted December 7, 2018 40 minutes ago, burgertime said: By the way here is the 6z RGEM snowfall map out to hour 54 Good sign for us folks living on a razors edge that the RGEM is already showing the same totals or more here as NAM out to only 54 hours. If the GFS and others trend just a little further south and get the Meck Union county line into the bullseye area I’ll feel a lot more comfortable that we at least end up with more than 1 or 2 inches of snow and a lot of ice. I’ve said it a few times before, it can pay off being this close if we end up on the right side of that dividing line. Here’s to hoping! 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: I will still put a $10 bill on the table and confidently say: This is sleet and frz rain Meck to Wake county. Snow totals of magnitude confined to W and NW NC. CLT and RAH will see snow, but sharing an FV3 map is as weenie as it comes. 60%sleet/30%frz rain/10%snow CLT and Rah. There is no doubt that ice will be a significant problem in these areas. However, northern Wake could see a good period of snow before transitioning to sleet/freezing rain. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: That NAM snowfall map posted above only goes through 1 PM Sunday. Lots of QPF left after that time. Thanks for posting that. Didn’t catch it when first looked at map. I’m 57 and I don’t ever remember seeing a storm of this size this early in the season. WOW Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amos83 Posted December 7, 2018 Today begins my favorite part of the storm, the nowcasting. We can start comparing the actual storm to model forecasts. Rain has already made it to Huntsville. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wxdawg10 Posted December 7, 2018 someone posted a link to a really discussion from NWS blacksburg that mentioned the WAA may not be as pronounced as originally modeled for anyone wondering. might be another reason why totals are getting beefed up by the models. might be picking up on it. it'll prob still mix around wake co but more wintry atleast at this point Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GunBlade Posted December 7, 2018 GSP due to release updated maps shortly but this summarizes living in NC lol. 9/10 chance of greater than 0” lol and 1/10 of greater than a foot. Wow Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: someone posted a link to a really discussion from NWS blacksburg that mentioned the WAA won't be as pronounced as originally modeled for anyone wondering why totals are getting beefed up WPC also stated this. Good to see. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Here's the RGEM through 84 hours (with a caveat that 84 hours is outside its best range): Thanks for sharing! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Amos83 said: Today begins my favorite part of the storm, the nowcasting. We can start comparing the actual storm to model forecasts. Rain has already made it to Huntsville. Yep, gonna start putting more emphasis on the short range models as well. Also for CLT to RDU seeing what's happening real time is gonna be crucial. I'm really curious to see if the 12z NAM trends colder..I'm almost willing to bet it does. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: I will still put a $10 bill on the table and confidently say: This is sleet and frz rain Meck to Wake county. Snow totals of magnitude confined to W and NW NC. CLT and RAH will see snow, but sharing an FV3 map is as weenie as it comes. 60%sleet/30%frz rain/10%snow CLT and Rah. Well when everyone acknowledges how weenie it is, does it really make you a weenie? I think that's probably a safe bet but I would drop the ZR a little and up the snow. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Here's the RGEM through 84 hours (with a caveat that 84 hours is outside its best range): If my math is correct, that's roughly 1.5" qpf for NW NC, which is in line with other guidance overnight. Don, thanks for contributing to our forum! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wxduncan Posted December 7, 2018 Do you guys think this will continue to trend south? If so would that put the foothills out of the 12-18 forecasted and move it to CLT? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, wxduncan said: Do you guys think this will continue to trend south? If so would that put the foothills out of the 12-18 forecasted and move it to CLT? Foothills and mountains very much still in play. Just because it moved south doesn't man the bullseye moves south with it if the cold air doesn't do it's thing. WNC is still in the best position right now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, wxduncan said: Do you guys think this will continue to trend south? If so would that put the foothills out of the 12-18 forecasted and move it to CLT? CLT will not be getting 12-18. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GunBlade Posted December 7, 2018 22 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: I will still put a $10 bill on the table and confidently say: This is sleet and frz rain Meck to Wake county. Snow totals of magnitude confined to W and NW NC. CLT and RAH will see snow, but sharing an FV3 map is as weenie as it comes. 60%sleet/30%frz rain/10%snow CLT and Rah. Those maps still paint an obvious picture of the trend of snow totals moving south across the models. Amounts aren’t a big deal but when CLT is moving into the jackpot of the clown maps it’s just as crazy to say they see 10% snow as it is to say they see the clown totals being shown. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 According to the NWS probabilities, roughly a 50% possibility of more than one foot in Forsyth. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, GunBlade said: Those maps still paint an obvious picture of the trend of snow totals moving south across the models. Amounts aren’t a big deal but when CLT is moving into the jackpot of the clown maps it’s just as crazy to say they see 10% snow as it is to say they see the clown totals being shown. Well. That’s why they are callled clown maps. Lol. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNC Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Poimen said: According to the NWS probabilities, roughly a 50% possibility of more than one foot in Forsyth. Where are you seeing that. Looks like 10% on WPC winter weather product Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, CentralNC said: Where are you seeing that. Looks like 10% on WPC winter weather product It's on the RAH "Winter Weather" age under the probabilities tab. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Nick Esasky Posted December 7, 2018 Haven't seen much discussion of N GA based on the overnight runs. Is ATL pretty much out of the woods as far as significant ice? I'm guessing maybe a dusting on Monday on the back end might happen, but nothing more? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GunBlade Posted December 7, 2018 Winter storm warnings out from GSP. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Nick Esasky said: Haven't seen much discussion of N GA based on the overnight runs. Is ATL pretty much out of the woods as far as significant ice? I'm guessing maybe a dusting on Monday on the back end might happen, but nothing more? I think we are going to see mostly rain and maybe a slight possibility like you are saying on the back end of the event. Models have been very consistent regarding the wedge from the NE. The 850 tropical temps are going to keep it an all rain event for ATL. The NE portion of GA is where the action will occur and that is even being discussed as minimal impacts. The area we need to monitor will be early monday morning to monday night. That time frame is still uncertain with the short range models just now bringing it into frame. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites