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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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Just now, packfan98 said:

Grit, I was wondering what the 6z euro looked like as far as the mixing line on Sunday afternoon.  I know that the 0z seemed to scour out the cold temps pretty fast and even showed rain as far NW as the Triad.  Did the 6z improve any?  Many thanks for your analysis and contributions for this storm!

Thank you. If looked very similar with the mid level warmth moving in / overall temps

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11 minutes ago, CADEffect said:

Another quick question at this point in the game do you start looking at the precipitation field more in short term models are continue to watch the op models?

personally, I focus on the short term at this point.

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Something I’d watch out for in this next suite is cyclogenesis along the Atlantic- so far not a single global has represented this well to my eye. The mesoscale models look more believable. Here’s what I mean:

Cyclogenesis is favored to occur in areas where there’s already a distinct low level vorticity axis (think: frontal boundary! “Low level vorticity axis” sounds like an intimidating weather term but it’s really just represents a wind shift!)

In CAD regimes, there’s always a super distinct axis just off the coast between the CAD Airmass and the coastal front. Thus, as that area has some lift imparted on it, you’d expect pressures to drop and cyclogenesis to initiate.

The globals don’t show this. Here’s the GFS: 1488b1920ae2d6069233ab6684b98b30.jpg it has not signature along the Gulf Stream at all... and I’m not sure I buy that. Here is the nam in comparison at the same time: e008f89295566f618d9718e8cd65cb4a.jpg

In the nam, there’s a much more distinct signature of this taking affect, and this represents what “supposed” to occur in this scenario. I think this is helping toss everything more northward in the NAM.

Now, obviously, meteorology doesn’t always bend towards what’s “supposed” to happen, as any seasoned weather enthusiast knows. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a “CAM vs Global” battle emerge today as more CAMs get in range. Lastly- CAM = convection allowing model- think NAM, RGEM, HRRR, etc. They don’t have to parametize convection with their higher resolution.


.

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You guys in the Carolina's are looking good... as for me on the border in VA, the QPF keeps heading south... at this point , the storm looks very minimal here... even though the NWS has us getting 12" still

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3 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Something I’d watch out for in this next suite is cyclogenesis along the Atlantic- so far not a single global has represented this well to my eye. The mesoscale models look more believable. Here’s what I mean:

Cyclogenesis is favored to occur in areas where there’s already a distinct low level vorticity axis (think: frontal boundary! “Low level vorticity axis” sounds like an intimidating weather term but it’s really just represents a wind shift!)

In CAD regimes, there’s always a super distinct axis just off the coast between the CAD Airmass and the coastal front. Thus, as that area has some lift imparted on it, you’d expect pressures to drop and cyclogenesis to initiate.

The globals don’t show this. Here’s the GFS: 1488b1920ae2d6069233ab6684b98b30.jpg it has not signature along the Gulf Stream at all... and I’m not sure I buy that. Here is the nam in comparison at the same time: e008f89295566f618d9718e8cd65cb4a.jpg

In the nam, there’s a much more distinct signature of this taking affect, and this represents what “supposed” to occur in this scenario. I think this is helping toss everything more northward in the NAM.

Now, obviously, meteorology doesn’t always bend towards what’s “supposed” to happen, as any seasoned weather enthusiast knows. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a “CAM vs Global” battle emerge today as more CAMs get in range. Lastly- CAM = convection allowing model- think NAM, RGEM, HRRR, etc. They don’t have to parametize convection with their higher resolution.


.

In his blog Crankywxguy talks about this being an elongated Low and less consolidated.  Interesting.  Thanks for the insights!

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36 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Cranky weather guy from twitter mentioned this in his blog yesterday saying that the storm was late to bloom but not late to track. Basically that what was happening out west wouldn’t translate directly to the east coast and in fact he said there might be an inverse reaction where things are wetter over here than expected. But things went south over there not because of more suppression or the low forming way south, but simply because cyclogenesis was later than initially modeled.

Just FYI, Cranky Weather Guy isn't a meteorologist so take anything they say with a grain of salt. It's been pointed out on this forum before how off base they've been.

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At 27 hours -- 850 temps looking nice over NC -- the 0C line has moved south a little, but the gradient is better -- that is, -5 temps have made it across the VA/NC line. 

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

You guys in the Carolina's are looking good... as for me on the border in VA, the QPF keeps heading south... at this point , the storm looks very minimal here... even though the NWS has us getting 12" still

Greensboro is only like 50-60 miles from you and I believe we are getting a ton. I'm sure you will be fine!

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3 minutes ago, Steven_1974 said:

Just FYI, Cranky Weather Guy isn't a meteorologist so take anything they say with a grain of salt. It's been pointed out on this forum before how off base they've been.

He hasn't been good lately

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4 minutes ago, Steven_1974 said:

Just FYI, Cranky Weather Guy isn't a meteorologist so take anything they say with a grain of salt. It's been pointed out on this forum before how off base they've been.

Oh okay I didn’t know that. I had seen some others share links to his blog this week was the only reason I had read that last night.

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ILMROSS  

Good points. Also how the models got egg faced in the crusher. If you read the write up from NWS all the occlusion etc that happened off the coast as storm bombed out. It was a good write up on how they missed it, a what went wrong model world kinda of deal.

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Just now, DopplerWx said:

hr32 and upstate looks to be all snow.

Really looking like it's going to be the "north of 85" special for the upstate. The south trends are encouraging. Hopefully that wedge can get the cold air a little further south to get more upstate SC people in the game!

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