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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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I want to see the RGEM. I'm betting that the models keep creeping that cold further down into Canada to help usher in colder air. My guess is it'll get better. 

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6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

You runing the soundings off pti or smith reynolds airport. I love all your post as your close by to me ,burns,packfan and a few others. Saves us alot if legwork

I just click on the map in the zoomed-in mode on Pivotal. I'm able to click close to my location in eastern Forsyth. I will say that areas south of 85 in the Triad look to have more sleet than north of 85. It's close. Either way, should be a good storm for all of us int he area. 

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5 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Sleeting here in Greenville already. 

For people with more knowledge, will earlier onset of precip help keep temps down and help build in that CAD?

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Lancaster County, SC is now under a Winter Storm Watch. It was previously under an advisory. Makes me feel slightly better about there being less of a warm nose for the CLT metro. 

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My guess is that the suppression trend is partly tied to this: the trend is for the ULL to "landfall" into Baja California as a more and more positively tilted wave. This positive tilt has ramifications downstream for its orientation, how amp the wave gets, and where some temperature profiles set up because a more negative tilt can raise heights downstream. 

nam3km_z500_vort_wus_fh17_trend.gif

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13 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

That or just having the sleet/rain line stay south of Wake.  Transitioning only to sleet then back to snow. That's fantasy wishing at this point I'm afraid.

Seems about the same for south Orange County. 

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12 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

That or just having the sleet/rain line stay south of Wake.  Transitioning only to sleet then back to snow. That's fantasy wishing at this point I'm afraid.

This might not be a bad thing.  There's nothing worse than hearing the low hum and explosion of overloaded transformers during an ice storm! ;)

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This looks damn good. 12z RGM at 48 hours.....well before the storm is over. By the way I can't stress enough how SV is only $20 a month. Well worth the cost. 

 

 

5c0a8c4a111c4.png

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1 minute ago, mckinnonwg said:

Looking at analysis data, it looks like the current HP is not as stretched out and has a forward lean (east) than what the 12z NAM forecasted.

1341201904_download(1).png.1bae1230ed0478ce9e17b67713e6135e.pngCapture.thumb.PNG.3137db16f46628e360dfb417ecc54cd0.PNG

That good for us?

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5 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

Lancaster County, SC is now under a Winter Storm Watch. It was previously under an advisory. Makes me feel slightly better about there being less of a warm nose for the CLT metro. 

Yeah,  Not in that neck of the woods but find it strange for that one county sort out by itself to have a Watch.  Almost have to believe the adjacent counties to its west would also come under WSW

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30 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Pinch me, I will be headed to AVL tomorrow very early- if they get over 18" (and that seems to be a growing consensus) it will be the biggest snow storm ever there- also I have never personally seen that much snow in one storm.

You should be in a prime spot for this one. Actually I think most of the mountains could get a foot plus. 

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2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Yeah,  Not in that neck of the woods but find it strange for that one county sort out by itself to have a Watch.  Almost have to believe the adjacent counties to its west would also come under WSW

I agree it is strange, but I expect more counties to be added at some point. CAE is always more conservative. 

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Most have been quiet here in Cherokee County GA about this - indicating just rain. But the FV3 seems to show accumulations in the area. And I just saw a forecast map from a poster (AshvilleWX) here with up to 2”

What am I missing? Am I just being hopeful?

 

 

. Pro

 

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4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

That good for us?

Not 100% sure honestly...but the forward lean might lead to more cold getting out in front of the main rain.  Which is why folks are already reporting certain conditions.  The high is going to pull it down into the moisture.  Also, vorticity has increased in the 500 level where the cold is coming from more than what was forecasted.  The low will continue to push in...its' the cold air we all need.

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1 minute ago, ryan1234 said:

I agree it is strange, but I expect more counties to be added at some point. CAE is always more conservative. 

621am Disco:

Summary...Nearly all GFS and ECMWF ensemble members support
periods of frozen precipitation in the north including Lancaster
County. The threat timing is Saturday night into Monday evening.
Snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible across northern
Lancaster county. Therefore, a winter weather advisory has been
issued for northern Lancaster county.

Farther south in the central and south sections that include
Columbia and Augusta there is less confidence of reaching advisory
or warning criteria. The possible frozen precipitation timing for
the central and south part is mainly Monday into Monday into
early Tuesday morning predominately associated with the cold
upper system.

 

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7 minutes ago, burgertime said:

This looks damn good. 12z RGM at 48 hours.....well before the storm is over. By the way I can't stress enough how SV is only $20 a month. Well worth the cost. 

 

 

5c0a8c4a111c4.png

It will be interested to see if that snow back in AR actually verifies. So far the system seems to a bit south of where forecasted and the ULL hasn't developed as strong yet which has caused many forecasts to bust in OK so far

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1 minute ago, Hammer said:

Most have been quiet here in Cherokee County GA about this - indicating just rain. But the FV3 seems to show accumulations in the area. And I just saw a forecast map from a poster (AshvilleWX) here with up to 2”

What am I missing? Am I just being hopeful?

 

 

. Pro

 

I think they are expecting more of the 850 temps to cancel out.  We are still a good bit away from the actual event so the model observations occurring can still play a major role.  We just need to be mindful we are on the borderline and certain placements ahead of time to the north or south can shift something greatly in the longterm.

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10 minutes ago, burgertime said:

This looks damn good. 12z RGM at 48 hours.....well before the storm is over. By the way I can't stress enough how SV is only $20 a month. Well worth the cost. 

 

 

5c0a8c4a111c4.png

 

LOL is that 20 inches in Little Rock?

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Just now, Amos83 said:

It will be interested to see if that snow back in AR actually verifies. So far the system seems to a bit south of where forecasted and the ULL hasn't developed as strong yet which has caused many forecasts to bust in OK so far

Very good point! 

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Watching WRAL weather video I'm guessing the NWS is holding off on Vance/Franklin/Wake/Lee and perhaps Moore counties on deciding if to issue a WSW or just SA later today.  Probably after all the 12z model suites are in.

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