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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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Brad is on point as usual, although I think sometimes he speaks too much in absolutes (re: high totals not even possibly verifying). Is Charlotte likely to get 10" as GSP is calling? Hell no. Is it possible? Yes.

 

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1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Y'all can have any model you like, but I'm claiming the CMC;)

gem_asnow_seus_18.png

I'll take any of the models. Most appear to have 6 to 12 inches of snow for me. Heck, I'd take about 4 inches of snow and some ice mixed in, too.

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The models changes have been mostly noise at this point, from what I've seen. I'm going with the below:

Charlotte: 3 to 5inches of snow/sleet followed by .25 in freezing rain

Raleigh: 2 to 4 inches of snow/sleet followed by .5 in freezing rain

Boone: 1 to 2 feet of snow

Asheville: 8-12 inches snow/sleet

Greensboro: 6-10 inches snow/sleet with a light glaze of Freezing rain

The worst freezing rain will be on the transition line as always, which will run from south of Charlotte up to southern Wake County. Anyone on the 31-32 degree side of this line could see as much as an inch of freezing rain. I could see this happening in the zone from northern SC towards the Pinehurst area.

My main analog continues to be Dec 4&5th 2002. The only difference is the s/w appears to be a bit further south this go around, resulting in a bit more snow/sleet vs freezing rain. Still favoring a Miller A/B hybrid, which will result in a sleet changeover for many areas.

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You need a good mix for sledding

 

Layer of sleet, then snow with sleet mixed, and then heavy snow with a nice sleet crust. Pack that down and break out the Flexible Flyer

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5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The models changes have been mostly noise at this point, from what I've seen. I'm going with the below:

Charlotte: 3 to 5inches of snow/sleet followed by .25 in freezing rain

Raleigh: 2 to 4 inches of snow/sleet followed by .5 in freezing rain

Boone: 1 to 2 feet of snow

Asheville: 8-12 inches snow/sleet

Greensboro: 6-10 inches snow/sleet with a light glaze of Freezing rain

The worst freezing rain will be on the transition line as always, which will run from south of Charlotte up to southern Wake County. Anyone on the 31-32 degree side of this line could see as much as an inch of freezing rain. I could see this happening in the zone from northern SC towards the Pinehurst area.

My main analog continues to be Dec 4&5th 2002. The only difference is the s/w appears to be a bit further south this go around, resulting in a bit more snow/sleet vs freezing rain. Still favoring a Miller A/B hybrid, which will result in a sleet changeover for many areas.

That is about what I was thinking as well.  I don't see how the western piedmont escapes at least some ice but not as much as 12/2002 storm.  Agree some are going to get killer ice storm just like 2002 storm.  Probably south of that storm like you mentioned.

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2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The models changes have been mostly noise at this point, from what I've seen. I'm going with the below:

Charlotte: 3 to 5inches of snow/sleet followed by .25 in freezing rain

Raleigh: 2 to 4 inches of snow/sleet followed by .5 in freezing rain

Boone: 1 to 2 feet of snow

Asheville: 8-12 inches snow/sleet

Greensboro: 6-10 inches snow/sleet with a light glaze of Freezing rain

The worst freezing rain will be on the transition line as always, which will run from south of Charlotte up to southern Wake County. Anyone on the 31-32 degree side of this line could see as much as an inch of freezing rain. I could see this happening in the zone from northern SC towards the Pinehurst area.

My main analog continues to be Dec 4&5th 2002. The only difference is the s/w appears to be a bit further south this go around, resulting in a bit more snow/sleet vs freezing rain. Still favoring a Miller A/B hybrid, which will result in a sleet changeover for many areas.

That looks reasonable. I was here for that 2002 storm and it was horrible. We lost a car from a pine tree breaking in half, all of our fence line, and my wife watched as a tree was pulled over from its root ball because of the ice weight. **I like (a little) ice on the trees, but to an extent.  

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Just now, CentralNC said:

CMC is out to lunch.  No way this storm goes that far north

I will say the 3k nam is not that far off from it, at least up this way. Never say never it’s nailed these things several times before.

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2 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Like I KNOW the non-Kuchera fv3 clown maps are unrealistic but they are just astonishing.  Like old-school DGEX snow outputs. They make my eyes happy.

lets see it

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I will say the 3k nam is not that far off from it, at least up this way. Never say never it’s nailed these things several times before.

Yes, silly of me.  Just feels like a carolina special to me.  Not totally off the table however.

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2 minutes ago, UpstateSCGamecock said:

Andy Wood Former Met Fox Carolina

62a45fd11b8ad3a4196f364ee5bc44cd.jpg39a39b10de35e767f93633401992aac7.jpg867ba5c25b9484215ffb3a4baacd71b9.jpg


.

He must really be thinking that the cold is going to dive way down. I hope hes right!

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19 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

fv3 holds serve, pretty close to 06z

fv3p_ref_frzn_eus_7.png

I sure hope this one has the best verification score! WOW. The unrealistic weenie in me loves this one, albeit, it seems to have been the most consistent model the entire process (so far)! 

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12 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

That looks reasonable. I was here for that 2002 storm and it was horrible. We lost a car from a pine tree breaking in half, all of our fence line, and my wife watched as a tree was pulled over from its root ball because of the ice weight. **I like (a little) ice on the trees, but to an extent.  

Sorry this happened to you all. I am glad everyone was ok. Our Daughter (now 16 yrs old) was born 12 weeks early and had spent 8 weeks in the Neonatal intensive Care Unit. They released her from the Hospital the evening before go time of the storm. We were without power for 7 days. THANK GOD for Propane Gas Logs to heat our house. I begged for them to keep her there for a few more days and no dice. 

 

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3 hours ago, ajr said:

7f2QjDw_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fWRAL snowfall map - seems bullish to me

 

 

3 hours ago, GreensboroWx said:

Based on what I have seen with the overnight runs, I think it might be a bit conservative.

I'd put 3 to 6 in the 1 to 3 and 6 to 10 in the 3 to 5 to be on the safe side 

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