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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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The models changes have been mostly noise at this point, from what I've seen. I'm going with the below:

Charlotte: 3 to 5inches of snow/sleet followed by .25 in freezing rain

Raleigh: 2 to 4 inches of snow/sleet followed by .5 in freezing rain

Boone: 1 to 2 feet of snow

Asheville: 8-12 inches snow/sleet

Greensboro: 6-10 inches snow/sleet with a light glaze of Freezing rain

The worst freezing rain will be on the transition line as always, which will run from south of Charlotte up to southern Wake County. Anyone on the 31-32 degree side of this line could see as much as an inch of freezing rain. I could see this happening in the zone from northern SC towards the Pinehurst area.

My main analog continues to be Dec 4&5th 2002. The only difference is the s/w appears to be a bit further south this go around, resulting in a bit more snow/sleet vs freezing rain. Still favoring a Miller A/B hybrid, which will result in a sleet changeover for many areas.

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5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The models changes have been mostly noise at this point, from what I've seen. I'm going with the below:

Charlotte: 3 to 5inches of snow/sleet followed by .25 in freezing rain

Raleigh: 2 to 4 inches of snow/sleet followed by .5 in freezing rain

Boone: 1 to 2 feet of snow

Asheville: 8-12 inches snow/sleet

Greensboro: 6-10 inches snow/sleet with a light glaze of Freezing rain

The worst freezing rain will be on the transition line as always, which will run from south of Charlotte up to southern Wake County. Anyone on the 31-32 degree side of this line could see as much as an inch of freezing rain. I could see this happening in the zone from northern SC towards the Pinehurst area.

My main analog continues to be Dec 4&5th 2002. The only difference is the s/w appears to be a bit further south this go around, resulting in a bit more snow/sleet vs freezing rain. Still favoring a Miller A/B hybrid, which will result in a sleet changeover for many areas.

That is about what I was thinking as well.  I don't see how the western piedmont escapes at least some ice but not as much as 12/2002 storm.  Agree some are going to get killer ice storm just like 2002 storm.  Probably south of that storm like you mentioned.

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2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The models changes have been mostly noise at this point, from what I've seen. I'm going with the below:

Charlotte: 3 to 5inches of snow/sleet followed by .25 in freezing rain

Raleigh: 2 to 4 inches of snow/sleet followed by .5 in freezing rain

Boone: 1 to 2 feet of snow

Asheville: 8-12 inches snow/sleet

Greensboro: 6-10 inches snow/sleet with a light glaze of Freezing rain

The worst freezing rain will be on the transition line as always, which will run from south of Charlotte up to southern Wake County. Anyone on the 31-32 degree side of this line could see as much as an inch of freezing rain. I could see this happening in the zone from northern SC towards the Pinehurst area.

My main analog continues to be Dec 4&5th 2002. The only difference is the s/w appears to be a bit further south this go around, resulting in a bit more snow/sleet vs freezing rain. Still favoring a Miller A/B hybrid, which will result in a sleet changeover for many areas.

That looks reasonable. I was here for that 2002 storm and it was horrible. We lost a car from a pine tree breaking in half, all of our fence line, and my wife watched as a tree was pulled over from its root ball because of the ice weight. **I like (a little) ice on the trees, but to an extent.  

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12 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

That looks reasonable. I was here for that 2002 storm and it was horrible. We lost a car from a pine tree breaking in half, all of our fence line, and my wife watched as a tree was pulled over from its root ball because of the ice weight. **I like (a little) ice on the trees, but to an extent.  

Sorry this happened to you all. I am glad everyone was ok. Our Daughter (now 16 yrs old) was born 12 weeks early and had spent 8 weeks in the Neonatal intensive Care Unit. They released her from the Hospital the evening before go time of the storm. We were without power for 7 days. THANK GOD for Propane Gas Logs to heat our house. I begged for them to keep her there for a few more days and no dice. 

 

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