• Member Statistics

    15,756
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    McHenrySnow
    Newest Member
    McHenrySnow
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

Recommended Posts

Just now, burgertime said:

On the torchyness I guess not lol....this is what I get for trying to do this while out in public. 

 850 temps are within a degree or 2 of 0... close

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NWS Raleigh just issued a briefing.  Good info.  They have a lot of uncertainty in snow amounts between US1 and 85.  Said that anything north and west of 85 is looking at double digit snow amounts and will stay mostly snow.  Heavier bands of precip will be of the frozen variety for Wake county and when it gets lighter that is when the transition to rain will occur.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, griteater said:

Euro Total Precip last 4 runs

gdo2jTF.gif

The 12Z runs have al nudged the precip back north some which is good for some in VA like me 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Euro looks almost identical to the GFS ensemble mean.

EBC6F8A8-E5DB-4DD4-B517-E3AF4F662070.thumb.png.5e91dbf824b3ce6a4a5791511ae6fc62.png

Looks a lot like Feb 2014 Euro Clown map for upstate. This one puts me in the 12-16 range - will never happen. If this were my only piece of info Id go with 1-3 of slush. 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The 12Z runs have al nudged the precip back north some which is good for some in VA like me 

@Disc @wncsnow @BornAgain13 Got to like the trends here at 12z. The RGEM is straight sexy! Has a completely different solution though. End of the 48hr run it tries to do some type of transfer with the low over Alabama. Big snows look like they would reach up here. Plus that is one hell of a squall line approaching northwestern FL. Goes to show the dynamics with this system. RGEM/3K/ICON/CMC ftw!! 

Euro looks improved as well!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I simply can't believe the consitancy of the FV3 over the past week, it hasn't waivered one bit. What a coup if the overall depictions (not clown map) verified. Still wish that western upstate minimum would go away and fill in with the heavier stuff but i guess it is what it is. 

I live in the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania.  We had a snowstorm on 11/15.  Similar to this situation the models were showing heavy amounts for my area.  The FV3 consistently showed 10”+ for me for 2 - 3 days prior.  The Mets blew them off.  The model outputs were contaminated by sleet they said.  We were forecasted to get 1-3” by the NWS office.  On the 15th as the storm was getting underway at 12pm and I was out on my back deck photographing the arrival of a wall of snow we were upgraded to a WSW.  By 6pm we were at 8 1/2” of snow before we changed over to sleet.  We picked up another 1 1/2” by the next morning to bring the storm total up to 10”.  The bottom line is those who are blowing off these model outputs do so at their own risk.  The FV3 proved to be correct. Many many people spent the night out on the highway because they could not get home.  

  • Like 11
  • Thanks 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Tatamy said:

I live in the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania.  We had a snowstorm on 11/15.  Similar to this situation the models were showing heavy amounts for my area.  The FV3 consistently showed 10”+ for me for 2 - 3 days prior.  The Mets blew them off.  The model outputs were contaminated by sleet they said.  We were forecasted to get 1-3” by the NWS office.  On the 15th as the storm was getting underway at 12pm and I was out on my back deck photographing the arrival of a wall of snow we were upgraded to a WSW.  By 6pm we were at 8 1/2” of snow before we changed over to sleet.  We picked up another 1 1/2” by the next morning to bring the storm total up to 10”.  The bottom line is those who are blowing off these model outputs do so at their own risk.  The FV3 proved to be correct. Many many people spent the night out on the highway because they could not get home.  

Let's hope we have a similar story. Thanks for the insight!

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just playing devil's advocate but this would likely be one huge sleet storm for those south of I-40 in NC. That thickness level is conducive for sleet and in CLT I would even bet it would be mixing a lot with ZR. Of course this is just reading this map verbatim so take it with a grain of salt. NAM/RGEM are** going to be a better guide from here on out. 

**Edit - 850's are between 0 and -4 on the Euro, I would feel more comfortable if NC was on top of that 546 line. 

5c0aba38de564.png

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro still giving me 10” right before go time. It’s so hard not to get suckered in. I know better. My name is WarmNose and I’m a glutton for punishment 

  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I live in the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania.  We had a snowstorm on 11/15.  Similar to this situation the models were showing heavy amounts for my area.  The FV3 consistently showed 10”+ for me for 2 - 3 days prior.  The Mets blew them off.  The model outputs were contaminated by sleet they said.  We were forecasted to get 1-3” by the NWS office.  On the 15th as the storm was getting underway at 12pm and I was out on my back deck photographing the arrival of a wall of snow we were upgraded to a WSW.  By 6pm we were at 8 1/2” of snow before we changed over to sleet.  We picked up another 1 1/2” by the next morning to bring the storm total up to 10”.  The bottom line is those who are blowing off these model outputs do so at their own risk.  The FV3 proved to be correct. Many many people spent the night out on the highway because they could not get home.  

Very interesting. This is our first expererience with it for WW here so we are all interested to see how it does.  

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Looks a lot like Feb 2014 Euro Clown map for upstate. This one puts me in the 12-16 range - will never happen. If this were my only piece of info Id go with 1-3 of slush. 

I was thinking the same thing, haha.  I remember the 12-24" clown totals for a lot of us on the eve of that storm (from the Euro and other modeling).  We ended up with 7.5" of SN/IP/ZR where I was, but I know upstate SC got majority jiffed.

I think the NAM identified a warm nose in the 700-850 mb that we ignored and then it happened, IIRC.  The SREF did a good job if I remember right.

I was looking over some 12z NAM soundings over lunch for GSO and noticed a warm nose showing up around 750 mb, so we need to watch that.  That's going to result in lot of sleet that 850 mb maps and clowns do not identify if it occurs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like dewpoints right now across the NW upstate are running in the 20s, all the way SW to Clemson/Walhalla area where they hit the 30s. Looks like 23/24 all the way to GMU, 26 here in Easley, 27 Pickens Airport. That is lower than i was expecting for today. Could figure in later for ground temps once that colder push starts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

I was thinking the same thing, haha.  I remember the 12-24" clown totals for a lot of us on the eve of that storm (from the Euro and other modeling).  We ended up with 7.5" of SN/IP/ZR where I was, but I know upstate SC got majority jiffed.

I think the NAM identified a warm nose in the 700-850 mb that we ignored and then it happened, IIRC.  The SREF did a good job if I remember right.

I was looking over some 12z NAM soundings over lunch for GSO and noticed a warm nose showing up around 750 mb, so we need to watch that.  That's going to result in lot of sleet that 850 mb maps and clowns so not identify if it occurs. 

Yes I remember that now. I think NAM was only model showing it and it nailed it! :underthewx:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Looks like dewpoints right now across the NW upstate are running in the 20s, all the way SW to Clemson/Walhalla area where they hit the 30s. Looks like 23/24 all the way to GMU, 26 here in Easley, 27 Pickens Airport. That is lower than i was expecting for today. Could figure in later for ground temps once that colder push starts.

I am very proud of this forum.  After 5 days and 4500 posts, this is the first mention of ground temps.  :)

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I blended the FV3 / Euro Ens / NAM and Im telling you, RAH looks good and Fishel will be caught with pants down if that concoction verifies.....

  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Justicebork said:

I am very proud of this forum.  After 5 days and 4500 posts, this is the first mention of ground temps.  :)

Maybe I should say 2M temps instead of "ground temps" (soil temps). Im a big believer that 2M temps are important no matter what others say. March 09, thunder snow for several hours, crazy rates - never got more than 4 or 4.5 inches b/c 2M temp wouldn't drop below 34. Areas north and east of me where temp was below freezing got a foot or more. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SREF can be useful as a forecasting tool and have been accurate before in the short range which is its primary objective. I can give scenarios where all models have missed/hit in the past and SREF has be pretty close, more than once, in our area usually within 24 hours.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.