wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 The old GFS continues to have the least qpf in the triad, southern VA 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 RGEM looks much different at 48 than GFS Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, CADEffect said: Should put more stock into FV3 then old version of GFS Well I'm sure NOAA NCEP put a lot of work into trying to make the GFS better, so yes 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: The old GFS continues to have the least qpf in the triad, southern VA Total precip trend on the last 3 runs of the GFS Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 The FV3 is still relatively beefy with the qpf amounts, but tempered a bit perhaps from previous runs. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 CMC actually went back north with snow field -- would take I-85 corridor from CLT to GSP pretty much out of the game -- sleet/zra, it appears. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2018 12z nam with a mized bag. total snow increased a good bit each run since the 12z runs yesterday which is a good trend. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 This is a classic case of the CAD winning out--it helps us NC peeps achieve more snow/frozen precip, but also puts a dent in the overall qpf totals. I'll gladly take that trade, however. 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 12Z Canadian Kuchera output: 5 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: 12z nam with a mized bag. total snow increased a good bit each run since the 12z runs yesterday which is a good trend. compared to RDU 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
eyewall Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: 12Z Canadian Kuchera output: Too far north IMO. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2018 I think the transition boundaries are already setting up. I heard snow in Pickens earlier. I was just on Woodruff road and it was sleeting. I am now back in the Golden Strip and it’s raining. The upper atmosphere has spoken. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, PackWxMan said: compared to RDU Man, that RDU sounding -- ugly ... almost a half inch of freezing rain glaze on top of 5 inches of snow on top of a layer of sleet. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Too far north IMO. Way too far north Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ozmaea Posted December 7, 2018 Seems like GSP is in model wars CMC vs new GFSSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: I think the transition boundaries are already setting up. I heard snow in Pickens earlier. I was just on Woodruff road and it was sleeting. I am now back in the Golden Strip and it’s raining. The upper atmosphere has spoken. this moisture in upstate SC will have ZEROOOOOOOO affect on the storm this weekend 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Trend loop of our southern wave when it is in Texas...the wave on the GFS is trending flatter (less amplitude) which is the opposite of what we normally see with these. Note the small height fall trend thru Virginia and North Carolina. It's small, but it makes a difference. Along the precip type transition areas, that's the trend you want to see for a colder, more south solution. For the northern mountains and up into VA where precip type isn't an issue, you'd want the sharper wave for more precip. 1 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 7, 2018 Saw a few sleet pellets this morning, looks like I'm just north of the precip right now. Being where I am, it's awesome to see the colder trends this morning but I'm not buying it yet. Western upstate continues to be in a snow minimum so we really need that colder push to continue. Problem is we've seen this last minute push for colder in the past and been burned by it. I'm going with mostly ice to rain for Pickens/Oconee south of Hwy 11, maybe down to 183. All the snow projection maps the mets are putting out shows me at about 2 inches, but my parents, less than 10 miles north with about 8+! Come on cold - surprise me for once... I dae you! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2018 umm... What is that missing .002"? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, PackWxMan said: this moisture in upstate SC will have ZEROOOOOOOO affect on the storm this weekend I do agree these are two are not connected. I will also tell you that I’ve lived here my whole life and the two ARE most certainly connected. It’s just reaffirming my understanding of where these precip boundaries are. Mother nature is keeping me humble and keeping my expectations at bay. Which I appreciate 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 FV3 colder ... again. Heavy snow breaking out in southern NC Piedmont at 18z Saturday. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 GFS Kuchera: 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ryan1234 Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, beanskip said: FV3 colder ... again. Heavy snow breaking out in southern NC Piedmont at 18z Saturday. I am cheering on the FV3, like never before. It has been the most consistent, by far. But man, is it going to leave a lot of us burned if it turns out to be completely wrong. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 28 minutes ago, Justicebork said: GFS takes a torch to everything at hr 60. With temperatures, the key themes I'm seeing on the modeling is that there is going to be some level of warm nosing that presses inland as the storm matures and rolls thru. The warm nosing is stronger on the Euro compared to the GFS. The other aspect that you see is that heavy rates are efficiently cooling the column as you would expect...so that's key for areas along the ptype transition to get those heavy rates. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 FV 3 Hours 42, 48, 54, 60: 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SnowDeac Posted December 7, 2018 I feel like this gets asked for many storms, but unfortunately I can't find the answer. What would be better for temperature profiles this evening: if the cloud cover rolls in to keep daytime temperatures down, or clear skies to allow dynamic cooling? I assume the latter, but am also unsure if it makes much of a difference in this case. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 FV3 trend @41 hrs... 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GunBlade Posted December 7, 2018 19 minutes ago, griteater said: Trend loop of our southern wave when it is in Texas...the wave on the GFS is trending flatter (less amplitude) which is the opposite of what we normally see with these. Note the small height fall trend thru Virginia and North Carolina. It's small, but it makes a difference. Along the precip type transition areas, that's the trend you want to see for a colder, more south solution. For the northern mountains and up into VA where precip type isn't an issue, you'd want the sharper wave for more precip. Yea normally we are hoping these amp up because they’re too far south. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites