• Member Statistics

    15,621
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Thunder struck
    Newest Member
    Thunder struck
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

Recommended Posts

This is a classic case of the CAD winning out--it helps us NC peeps achieve more snow/frozen precip, but also puts a dent in the overall qpf  totals. I'll gladly take that trade, however. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

12z nam with a mized bag. total snow increased a good bit each run since the 12z runs yesterday which is a good trend.

prec.png

compared to RD2044495929_ScreenShot2018-12-07at11_08_15AM.thumb.png.2b529c3e7b4304c329f3d026345d1724.pngU

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the transition boundaries are already setting up. I heard snow in Pickens earlier. I was just on Woodruff road and it was sleeting. I am now back in the Golden Strip and it’s raining. The upper atmosphere has spoken.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, PackWxMan said:

compared to RD2044495929_ScreenShot2018-12-07at11_08_15AM.thumb.png.2b529c3e7b4304c329f3d026345d1724.pngU

 

Man, that RDU sounding -- ugly ... almost a half inch of freezing rain glaze on top of 5 inches of snow on top of a layer of sleet. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WarmNose said:

I think the transition boundaries are already setting up. I heard snow in Pickens earlier. I was just on Woodruff road and it was sleeting. I am now back in the Golden Strip and it’s raining. The upper atmosphere has spoken.

this moisture in upstate SC will have ZEROOOOOOOO affect on the storm this weekend

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trend loop of our southern wave when it is in Texas...the wave on the GFS is trending flatter (less amplitude) which is the opposite of what we normally see with these.  Note the small height fall trend thru Virginia and North Carolina.  It's small, but it makes a difference.  Along the precip type transition areas, that's the trend you want to see for a colder, more south solution.  For the northern mountains and up into VA where precip type isn't an issue, you'd want the sharper wave for more precip.

dOuQl51.gif

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Saw a few sleet pellets this morning, looks like I'm just north of the precip right now. Being where I am, it's awesome to see the colder trends this morning but I'm not buying it yet. Western upstate continues to be in a snow minimum so we really need that colder push to continue. Problem is we've seen this last minute push for colder in the past and been burned by it. I'm going with mostly ice to rain for Pickens/Oconee south of Hwy 11, maybe down to 183. All the snow projection maps the mets are putting out shows me at about 2 inches, but my parents, less than 10 miles north with about 8+! Come on cold - surprise me for once... I dae you!   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, PackWxMan said:

this moisture in upstate SC will have ZEROOOOOOOO affect on the storm this weekend

I do agree these are two are not connected. I will also tell you that I’ve lived here my whole life and the two ARE most certainly connected. It’s just reaffirming my understanding of where these precip boundaries are. Mother nature is keeping me humble and keeping my expectations at bay. Which I appreciate 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, beanskip said:

FV3 colder ... again. Heavy snow breaking out in southern NC Piedmont at 18z Saturday. 

I am cheering on the FV3, like never before. It has been the most consistent, by far. But man, is it going to leave a lot of us burned if it turns out to be completely wrong.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Justicebork said:

GFS takes a torch to everything at hr 60.

With temperatures, the key themes I'm seeing on the modeling is that there is going to be some level of warm nosing that presses inland as the storm matures and rolls thru.  The warm nosing is stronger on the Euro compared to the GFS.  The other aspect that you see is that heavy rates are efficiently cooling the column as you would expect...so that's key for areas along the ptype transition to get those heavy rates.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I feel like this gets asked for many storms, but unfortunately I can't find the answer. What would be better for temperature profiles this evening: if the cloud cover rolls in to keep daytime temperatures down, or clear skies to allow dynamic cooling? I assume the latter, but am also unsure if it makes much of a difference in this case.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, griteater said:

Trend loop of our southern wave when it is in Texas...the wave on the GFS is trending flatter (less amplitude) which is the opposite of what we normally see with these.  Note the small height fall trend thru Virginia and North Carolina.  It's small, but it makes a difference.  Along the precip type transition areas, that's the trend you want to see for a colder, more south solution.  For the northern mountains and up into VA where precip type isn't an issue, you'd want the sharper wave for more precip.

dOuQl51.gif

Yea normally we are hoping these amp up because they’re too far south.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.