December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[wncsnow]

The old GFS continues to have the least qpf in the triad, southern VA

[wncsnow]

RGEM looks much different at 48 than GFS

[griteater]

2 minutes ago, CADEffect said:

Should put more stock into FV3 then old version of GFS 

Well I'm sure NOAA NCEP put a lot of work into trying to make the GFS better, so yes

[griteater]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

The old GFS continues to have the least qpf in the triad, southern VA

Total precip trend on the last 3 runs of the GFS

[Poimen]

The FV3 is still relatively beefy with the qpf amounts, but tempered a bit perhaps from previous runs. 

[beanskip]

CMC actually went back north with snow field -- would take I-85 corridor from CLT to GSP pretty much out of the game -- sleet/zra, it appears. 

[DopplerWx]

12z nam with a mized bag. total snow increased a good bit each run since the 12z runs yesterday which is a good trend.

[Poimen]

This is a classic case of the CAD winning out--it helps us NC peeps achieve more snow/frozen precip, but also puts a dent in the overall qpf  totals. I'll gladly take that trade, however. 

[Poimen]

12Z Canadian Kuchera output: 

 

[PackWxMan]

4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

12z nam with a mized bag. total snow increased a good bit each run since the 12z runs yesterday which is a good trend.

compared to RDU

 

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, Poimen said:

12Z Canadian Kuchera output: 

 

Too far north IMO. 

[WarmNose]

I think the transition boundaries are already setting up. I heard snow in Pickens earlier. I was just on Woodruff road and it was sleeting. I am now back in the Golden Strip and it’s raining. The upper atmosphere has spoken.

[beanskip]

Just now, PackWxMan said:

compared to RDU

 

Man, that RDU sounding -- ugly ... almost a half inch of freezing rain glaze on top of 5 inches of snow on top of a layer of sleet. 

[Orangeburgwx]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Too far north IMO. 

Way too far north

[ozmaea]

Seems like GSP is in model wars CMC vs new GFS

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[PackWxMan]

1 minute ago, WarmNose said:

I think the transition boundaries are already setting up. I heard snow in Pickens earlier. I was just on Woodruff road and it was sleeting. I am now back in the Golden Strip and it’s raining. The upper atmosphere has spoken.

this moisture in upstate SC will have ZEROOOOOOOO affect on the storm this weekend

[griteater]

Trend loop of our southern wave when it is in Texas...the wave on the GFS is trending flatter (less amplitude) which is the opposite of what we normally see with these.  Note the small height fall trend thru Virginia and North Carolina.  It's small, but it makes a difference.  Along the precip type transition areas, that's the trend you want to see for a colder, more south solution.  For the northern mountains and up into VA where precip type isn't an issue, you'd want the sharper wave for more precip.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Saw a few sleet pellets this morning, looks like I'm just north of the precip right now. Being where I am, it's awesome to see the colder trends this morning but I'm not buying it yet. Western upstate continues to be in a snow minimum so we really need that colder push to continue. Problem is we've seen this last minute push for colder in the past and been burned by it. I'm going with mostly ice to rain for Pickens/Oconee south of Hwy 11, maybe down to 183. All the snow projection maps the mets are putting out shows me at about 2 inches, but my parents, less than 10 miles north with about 8+! Come on cold - surprise me for once... I dae you!   

[Orangeburgwx]

umm... What is that missing .002"?

[WarmNose]

Just now, PackWxMan said:

this moisture in upstate SC will have ZEROOOOOOOO affect on the storm this weekend

I do agree these are two are not connected. I will also tell you that I’ve lived here my whole life and the two ARE most certainly connected. It’s just reaffirming my understanding of where these precip boundaries are. Mother nature is keeping me humble and keeping my expectations at bay. Which I appreciate 

[beanskip]

FV3 colder ... again. Heavy snow breaking out in southern NC Piedmont at 18z Saturday. 

[Poimen]

GFS Kuchera: 

[ryan1234]

Just now, beanskip said:

FV3 colder ... again. Heavy snow breaking out in southern NC Piedmont at 18z Saturday. 

I am cheering on the FV3, like never before. It has been the most consistent, by far. But man, is it going to leave a lot of us burned if it turns out to be completely wrong.  

[griteater]

28 minutes ago, Justicebork said:

GFS takes a torch to everything at hr 60.

With temperatures, the key themes I'm seeing on the modeling is that there is going to be some level of warm nosing that presses inland as the storm matures and rolls thru.  The warm nosing is stronger on the Euro compared to the GFS.  The other aspect that you see is that heavy rates are efficiently cooling the column as you would expect...so that's key for areas along the ptype transition to get those heavy rates.

[Poimen]

FV 3 Hours 42, 48, 54, 60:

 

 

[SnowDeac]

I feel like this gets asked for many storms, but unfortunately I can't find the answer. What would be better for temperature profiles this evening: if the cloud cover rolls in to keep daytime temperatures down, or clear skies to allow dynamic cooling? I assume the latter, but am also unsure if it makes much of a difference in this case.

[Wow]

FV3 trend @41 hrs...

[GunBlade]

19 minutes ago, griteater said:

Trend loop of our southern wave when it is in Texas...the wave on the GFS is trending flatter (less amplitude) which is the opposite of what we normally see with these.  Note the small height fall trend thru Virginia and North Carolina.  It's small, but it makes a difference.  Along the precip type transition areas, that's the trend you want to see for a colder, more south solution.  For the northern mountains and up into VA where precip type isn't an issue, you'd want the sharper wave for more precip.

Yea normally we are hoping these amp up because they’re too far south.  

[WFFaithful]

Wetter.

[PackWxMan]