PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: I think the transition boundaries are already setting up. I heard snow in Pickens earlier. I was just on Woodruff road and it was sleeting. I am now back in the Golden Strip and it’s raining. The upper atmosphere has spoken. this moisture in upstate SC will have ZEROOOOOOOO affect on the storm this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Trend loop of our southern wave when it is in Texas...the wave on the GFS is trending flatter (less amplitude) which is the opposite of what we normally see with these. Note the small height fall trend thru Virginia and North Carolina. It's small, but it makes a difference. Along the precip type transition areas, that's the trend you want to see for a colder, more south solution. For the northern mountains and up into VA where precip type isn't an issue, you'd want the sharper wave for more precip. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Saw a few sleet pellets this morning, looks like I'm just north of the precip right now. Being where I am, it's awesome to see the colder trends this morning but I'm not buying it yet. Western upstate continues to be in a snow minimum so we really need that colder push to continue. Problem is we've seen this last minute push for colder in the past and been burned by it. I'm going with mostly ice to rain for Pickens/Oconee south of Hwy 11, maybe down to 183. All the snow projection maps the mets are putting out shows me at about 2 inches, but my parents, less than 10 miles north with about 8+! Come on cold - surprise me for once... I dae you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 umm... What is that missing .002"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, PackWxMan said: this moisture in upstate SC will have ZEROOOOOOOO affect on the storm this weekend I do agree these are two are not connected. I will also tell you that I’ve lived here my whole life and the two ARE most certainly connected. It’s just reaffirming my understanding of where these precip boundaries are. Mother nature is keeping me humble and keeping my expectations at bay. Which I appreciate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 FV3 colder ... again. Heavy snow breaking out in southern NC Piedmont at 18z Saturday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GFS Kuchera: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, beanskip said: FV3 colder ... again. Heavy snow breaking out in southern NC Piedmont at 18z Saturday. I am cheering on the FV3, like never before. It has been the most consistent, by far. But man, is it going to leave a lot of us burned if it turns out to be completely wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 28 minutes ago, Justicebork said: GFS takes a torch to everything at hr 60. With temperatures, the key themes I'm seeing on the modeling is that there is going to be some level of warm nosing that presses inland as the storm matures and rolls thru. The warm nosing is stronger on the Euro compared to the GFS. The other aspect that you see is that heavy rates are efficiently cooling the column as you would expect...so that's key for areas along the ptype transition to get those heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 FV 3 Hours 42, 48, 54, 60: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I feel like this gets asked for many storms, but unfortunately I can't find the answer. What would be better for temperature profiles this evening: if the cloud cover rolls in to keep daytime temperatures down, or clear skies to allow dynamic cooling? I assume the latter, but am also unsure if it makes much of a difference in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 FV3 trend @41 hrs... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 19 minutes ago, griteater said: Trend loop of our southern wave when it is in Texas...the wave on the GFS is trending flatter (less amplitude) which is the opposite of what we normally see with these. Note the small height fall trend thru Virginia and North Carolina. It's small, but it makes a difference. Along the precip type transition areas, that's the trend you want to see for a colder, more south solution. For the northern mountains and up into VA where precip type isn't an issue, you'd want the sharper wave for more precip. Yea normally we are hoping these amp up because they’re too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFFaithful Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, PackWxMan said: That area they have circled looks too conservative to me. I think at least 4 to 6 of snow with ice on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Sorry - meant to comment.... This is such a sham by RAH NWS! Like, lets put up an uncertainly oval.. what a cop out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, PackWxMan said: So 1 inch of snow for CLT? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 fv3 holds serve, pretty close to 06z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Brad is on point as usual, although I think sometimes he speaks too much in absolutes (re: high totals not even possibly verifying). Is Charlotte likely to get 10" as GSP is calling? Hell no. Is it possible? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Y'all can have any model you like, but I'm claiming the CMC 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: Y'all can have any model you like, but I'm claiming the CMC I'll take any of the models. Most appear to have 6 to 12 inches of snow for me. Heck, I'd take about 4 inches of snow and some ice mixed in, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The models changes have been mostly noise at this point, from what I've seen. I'm going with the below: Charlotte: 3 to 5inches of snow/sleet followed by .25 in freezing rain Raleigh: 2 to 4 inches of snow/sleet followed by .5 in freezing rain Boone: 1 to 2 feet of snow Asheville: 8-12 inches snow/sleet Greensboro: 6-10 inches snow/sleet with a light glaze of Freezing rain The worst freezing rain will be on the transition line as always, which will run from south of Charlotte up to southern Wake County. Anyone on the 31-32 degree side of this line could see as much as an inch of freezing rain. I could see this happening in the zone from northern SC towards the Pinehurst area. My main analog continues to be Dec 4&5th 2002. The only difference is the s/w appears to be a bit further south this go around, resulting in a bit more snow/sleet vs freezing rain. Still favoring a Miller A/B hybrid, which will result in a sleet changeover for many areas. 10 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 You need a good mix for sledding Layer of sleet, then snow with sleet mixed, and then heavy snow with a nice sleet crust. Pack that down and break out the Flexible Flyer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The models changes have been mostly noise at this point, from what I've seen. I'm going with the below: Charlotte: 3 to 5inches of snow/sleet followed by .25 in freezing rain Raleigh: 2 to 4 inches of snow/sleet followed by .5 in freezing rain Boone: 1 to 2 feet of snow Asheville: 8-12 inches snow/sleet Greensboro: 6-10 inches snow/sleet with a light glaze of Freezing rain The worst freezing rain will be on the transition line as always, which will run from south of Charlotte up to southern Wake County. Anyone on the 31-32 degree side of this line could see as much as an inch of freezing rain. I could see this happening in the zone from northern SC towards the Pinehurst area. My main analog continues to be Dec 4&5th 2002. The only difference is the s/w appears to be a bit further south this go around, resulting in a bit more snow/sleet vs freezing rain. Still favoring a Miller A/B hybrid, which will result in a sleet changeover for many areas. That is about what I was thinking as well. I don't see how the western piedmont escapes at least some ice but not as much as 12/2002 storm. Agree some are going to get killer ice storm just like 2002 storm. Probably south of that storm like you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The models changes have been mostly noise at this point, from what I've seen. I'm going with the below: Charlotte: 3 to 5inches of snow/sleet followed by .25 in freezing rain Raleigh: 2 to 4 inches of snow/sleet followed by .5 in freezing rain Boone: 1 to 2 feet of snow Asheville: 8-12 inches snow/sleet Greensboro: 6-10 inches snow/sleet with a light glaze of Freezing rain The worst freezing rain will be on the transition line as always, which will run from south of Charlotte up to southern Wake County. Anyone on the 31-32 degree side of this line could see as much as an inch of freezing rain. I could see this happening in the zone from northern SC towards the Pinehurst area. My main analog continues to be Dec 4&5th 2002. The only difference is the s/w appears to be a bit further south this go around, resulting in a bit more snow/sleet vs freezing rain. Still favoring a Miller A/B hybrid, which will result in a sleet changeover for many areas. That looks reasonable. I was here for that 2002 storm and it was horrible. We lost a car from a pine tree breaking in half, all of our fence line, and my wife watched as a tree was pulled over from its root ball because of the ice weight. **I like (a little) ice on the trees, but to an extent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I'll take any of the models. Most appear to have 6 to 12 inches of snow for me. Heck, I'd take about 4 inches of snow and some ice mixed in, too. CMC is out to lunch. No way this storm goes that far north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Like I KNOW the non-Kuchera fv3 clown maps are unrealistic but they are just astonishing. Like old-school DGEX snow outputs. They make my eyes happy. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, CentralNC said: CMC is out to lunch. No way this storm goes that far north I will say the 3k nam is not that far off from it, at least up this way. Never say never it’s nailed these things several times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Y'all can have any model you like, but I'm claiming the CMC I second this map. I’ll take it in a heartbeats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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