• Member Statistics

    15,621
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Thunder struck
    Newest Member
    Thunder struck
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

Recommended Posts

18 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I honestly can't decide what it's going to do in the northern upstate. I think the most logical outcome is mostly cold rain, but there's definitely a chance we could get buried.  I'll remain cautiously optimistic, but expect 1 inch of sleet accumulation for my storm total.

If that lead finger of precip could be mostly snow for us, we could really rack up. It appears the mid-levels will be borderline cold enough for the finger... but surface temps are around 35-37. If the mid-levels are cold enough, i imagine we could cool the surface down to 32-33 with heavy rates inside the finger.

Regardless, the mountains on the NC/SC border are going to get obliterated, both by the lead finger and the main storm. I'm calling the jackpot for the storm as somewhere around rosman/brevard with a total of 20 inches.

  

I agree, the escarpment just off the Great Balsams will be the prime spot for our area. We're pulling our hair out over here trying to nail down where the cutoff line will be from sleet/light snow to heavy snow. A good number of folks in SW NC will be disappointed, more so Macon/Jackson moving southwest, Haywood looks like a lock for a heavy event. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely some changes vs. 6z with the orientation of the 5h disturbance. I'm not smart enough to figure out what it means, but just eyeballing, something has changed. 

EDIT: 12z version seems flatter?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A bit confused out to 36 on NAM. LP is north of previous run, but precip shield just runs into some sort of wall in mid NC. What's up with that? Looks like it might slide south?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, localyokelweather said:

I agree, the escarpment just off the Great Balsams will be the prime spot for our area. We're pulling our hair out over here trying to nail down where the cutoff line will be from sleet/light snow to heavy snow. A good number of folks in SW NC will be disappointed, more so Macon/Jackson moving southwest, Haywood looks like a lock for a heavy event. 

I'm confident highlands will be good. Gonna be a big score or heartbreaker here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, mackerel_sky said:

I’m hugging the NAM and GFSv3! And taking my 2” of sleet!

If you get 2" of sleet in Simpsonville I'll be happy with my 4" of snow in Easley!

  • Confused 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Definitely some changes vs. 6z with the orientation of the 5h disturbance. I'm not smart enough to figure out what it means, but just eyeballing, something has changed. 

EDIT: 12z version seems flatter?

The s/w is weaker and flatter... This will certainly keep the ice away and make this more rain vs. snow.  Looks more like the GFS in that sense

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, localyokelweather said:

I agree, the escarpment just off the Great Balsams will be the prime spot for our area. We're pulling our hair out over here trying to nail down where the cutoff line will be from sleet/light snow to heavy snow. A good number of folks in SW NC will be disappointed, more so Macon/Jackson moving southwest, Haywood looks like a lock for a heavy event. 

12Z Nam looks much better for sw NC

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, RTPGiants said:

A bit confused out to 36 on NAM. LP is north of previous run, but precip shield just runs into some sort of wall in mid NC. What's up with that? Looks like it might slide south?

It is because the High pressure is 1039 this run instead of 1036. More of a press down. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pivotal Weather has a better simulation than TT (and snow maps).  It just light precip, based on the sounding it should be a rain snow mix in GSO at hour 36.

refcmp_ptype.us_ma.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I shall break this precip wall with mine hammer, but i doubt precip  extent shown  I think the big take is much colder look

namconus_ref_frzn_eus_36.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is at hour 48 with more on the way. GSP in the heat of this has low enough 850's and thickness is good enough to keep it all snow until someone digs through the sounding data. 
 

5c0a80f489ccb.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, burgertime said:

This is at hour 48 with more on the way. GSP in the heat of this has low enough 850's and thickness is good enough to keep it all snow until someone digs through the sounding data. 
 

5c0a80f489ccb.png

I see you got my message! This is awesome! Hope it keeps trending! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

If NAM verifies this would be a once in a lifetime storm whether it be ice or snow. There is a TON of QPF with this. 

NAM has caved to the FV3 and its allies.  Flatter, weaker southern wave.  Less WAA, less GOM convection moisture robbing thus no dry slot.  Good stuff.

2nqMR0Y.png

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Wow -- huge surge south of 850 temps vs. 6z run -- about 50 miles south at 30 hours. 

yep....850 mb low and thus winds are more easterly than southeasterly  in the upstate and north ga. it's very very close to snowing in much of ne ga by late in the day. The killer for north ga continues to be the warm nose the nam shows between 700mb and 850mb though but it's much cooler this run with it. Considering how heavy the precip is i wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of mixing though now just about area wide. 

Also, the trend in the models here lately is to be a little further north with that finger of precip. That has possible cooling ramifications for ne ga too as the air is colder over the western carolinas so after wetbulbing that air advects into north ga. It does north ga no good to have it so far south as the models have been showing until recently. 

Overall a much better look if one is hoping to see something other than freezing rain or rain in ne ga and a better overall snowy look for the upstate.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, burgertime said:

If NAM verifies this would be a once in a lifetime storm whether it be ice or snow. There is a TON of QPF with this. 

If I'm not mistaken the NAM is pretty close to what the GFS FV3 has been showing for a few days now correct?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

I'm confident highlands will be good. Gonna be a big score or heartbreaker here.

Yea, the Southern Highlands Plateau is a safe bet for us. Franklin is a tough call with Bryson a close second. Our final map comes out later this morning but I think we'll push a larger than usual snow total range (instead of the usual 1 - 2", go with 1 - 4" for example) to show the uncertainty as it relates to distance between totals, location and elevation. A fun storm to track no doubt and I'm curious to see what Lake Toxaway reports when its all said and done. Have a safe and fun time bud! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.