pbrown85
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Everything posted by pbrown85
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How accurate is this model with thermals? Looks like temp will be our biggest issue in the upstate.
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Let's hope that comes true! Coming from a teacher in Pickens County hoping for an early release tomorrow!
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That FV3 Kuchera map has been crazy consistent in showing a good snowfall for GSP. I wonder what it is seeing that others aren't?
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He could be on to something or he could be just generating a little hype on his fb page. He's not a Met around here anymore so he doesn't really have any real negative consequences if he is wrong, but on the off chance hes right people will think he is a winter weather genius.
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He must really be thinking that the cold is going to dive way down. I hope hes right!
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For people with more knowledge, will earlier onset of precip help keep temps down and help build in that CAD?
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If I'm not mistaken the NAM is pretty close to what the GFS FV3 has been showing for a few days now correct?
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If you get 2" of sleet in Simpsonville I'll be happy with my 4" of snow in Easley!
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Really looking like it's going to be the "north of 85" special for the upstate. The south trends are encouraging. Hopefully that wedge can get the cold air a little further south to get more upstate SC people in the game!
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Does anyone have any theories as to why the GFS FV3 gives so much more with it's winter output than the other models so far?
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I wonder if he's being a bit more conservative since he's been burned by over hyping a storm before.
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Still trying to learn but Kuchera is just snow measurement? That takes out other p-types correct?
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Yup that's the one!
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It will take the place of the gfs in Jan
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Man look at that wedge!
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Living in the Greenville SC area I also remember maybe 3 years ago we were super close to a modeled huge storm. Gsp even mentioned 12" possible for Greenville. We ended up with maybe an inch of slush after all the cold rain and mixing. Crossing my fingers that this one gives us something decent!
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If that verified people would be talking about it for years!
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So please correct me if I'm wrong. For me in the Upstate of SC it seems like the FV3, Ukie, and Euro are all pretty close with totals for my area with the GFS seeming to move a little southwest with it's totals. Good trends?
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I will take the Euro and be happy for the rest of the winter!
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Why is the FV3 showing so much more snow for Upstate SC? Is it seeing something in the CAD that other models aren't seeing or is it just that far off?
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So I have seen people talk about the NAM at this range not being accurate, then some people saying that it does a great job with the temp profiles in these situations? Is the NAM to be believed with it showing the cold getting down to upstate SC or are people just hugging the NAM because it shows the temps we need?
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Thanks! Still trying to learn some of the nuances of model watching. Following this forum has been a big help!
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Is this the first big winter threat that the FV3 has done for this area? Or does it have an established track record?
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CJ with wyff is slowly starting his hype train on his fb page. That's the biggest jinx we could get!
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Umm give me 1/3 of the 30+ total IMBY and it will still be a storm I tell my grandkids about!
