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About Hvward

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  • Location:
    Asheville, NC (2150')

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  1. Still some uncertainty regarding Friday as well as some in the main thread mentioned. I got to looking through the EPS member and found two with a look like what the Ukie has shown(actually even an inland track compared to Ukie). Could be interesting, and I am thinking that we are seeing some volatility among EPS and GEFS member that should be noted. Not saying it will happen, but right now we sit on the very cold side of things as it looks and things have trended towards more warm and moist as we approach so it's noteworthy. Check it out..
  2. NAM showed the northwestern expansion of precip before the GFS and Euro picked up on it and was the first to show consistent back to back runs with accumulation around WNC. It lost the look for two runs on Tuesday, push the trough out to sea more... but then came back with the sharper look and held on to it, progressively getting stronger. For Asheville, the NAM was the first model to pick up on the chance for decent accumulation, and was the first to show the possibility for 6"+ on the NC/SC border. I don't think any model besides the UK and NAVGEM deserve to be praised after this event. But the NAM sniffed out the snowfall all across the SE, and imo outperform the GFS & Euro.
  3. My professors harped on looking for consistency from run to run to tell how well a model is handling a situation. The NAVGEM may not be the best model, but it has to be given some weight when it is that consistent and other are waving as they did. I understand the NWS not buying the early trends of the NAM, but they were consistent 36 hrs out and after the 18z run Tuesday evening, models really began to latch on to an expanded precip field to the NW. Ukie and NAVGEM had shown long range support for what the NAM was portraying, but because the Operational GFS and Operational Euro weren't showing the sharper look, these trends weren't given the weight they should have been. The GEFS and the EPS both showed this type of solution as a possibility on several runs with several members. I think this has been a good learning experience, I know that I have learned a ton! Looking forward though, Tuesday morning a love of energy from the Alberta Clipper moving over the NE looks to swing through WNC and I bet we see another 1"-3" for the border counties Starting Tuesday morning and lasting through the day. We haven't seen a pattern like this in a while, but this looks great for the ski areas! They should be able to make a base large enough to sustain them through the winter over the next week imo. Thursday evening into Friday also looks interesting! Snow showers look to be possible around Downtown Asheville and valleys north of I-40 onTuesday and Thursday into Friday is a wildcard so this should be a fun, but cold week!
  4. Here comes a couple more inches for the border counties!
  5. Riding to Charlotte right now with my family for my sisters birthday and it is hammering down out in Hendersonville! Huge flakes accumulating on the interstate. Charlotte peeps, I am bringing it with me! .
  6. It's coming down again and banding to our South looks great! Grab your cup of coffee and get ready for a couple more inches! Saw a flash a few minutes ago, but didn't hear thunder so it might have been a power flash, better there have been many reports on my FB page of Thundersnow in the area. .
  7. Yeah 3"-4" has accumulated on most side roads up here.
  8. The moment I saw it accumulating on Smoky Park Highway this morning, I knew we were in trouble. I had my doubts about whether it would stick to the roadways during the daylight, but the atmosphere was about to lay down that thermal layer of initial snow before the sun came up and that was all she wrote, because rates never let up enough for any meaningful melt to occur.
  9. Yeah Met. And like you and HT mentioned moisture is not a concern. You can see the second piece of energy now surging ahead in the stream if you look at the KBMX radar. That will fill in the area of concern and the real fun begins.. maybe someone in here hears Thundersnow tonight? Hopefully! .
  10. You guys having fun yet? Lol tried to leave the house to drive around and Monta Vista Rd. is a disaster. 8 cars stuck on the hill just past The Rock Church. .
  11. Classic deck shot from my backyard here in Candler, NC. Just over 6" so far!
  12. Just measured 4" at the base of Spivey Mtn. here in Candler, NC. .
  13. It is! I am building the house that is right up against it for the guys sister! .
  14. Go ahead, get in the Christmas spirit! Xmas tree farm up Dutch Cove in Canton.
  15. This should get you in the Christmas spirit! Up Dutch Cove near Canton, NC in the mountains of WNC.