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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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4 minutes ago, burgertime said:

This is gonna be one of those "one city over" heartbreakers where you'll see a big dividing line between like 2 inches of compacted sleet snow and a foot of snow that next city over. I'm really interested to see if the NAM trends colder. I have a feeling it's picking up that cold air press in Canada. We're starting to get into good sampling range. RGEM should really be paid attention for that reason. 

Just the normal crap we have endure tracking winter storms for our area....lol I mean my area (...you're in Europe!). You need to move back to fully feel the pain again. 

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5 minutes ago, burgertime said:

This is gonna be one of those "one city over" heartbreakers where you'll see a big dividing line between like 2 inches of compacted sleet snow and a foot of snow that next city over. I'm really interested to see if the NAM trends colder. I have a feeling it's picking up that cold air press in Canada. We're starting to get into good sampling range. RGEM should really be paid attention for that reason. 

Yeah.  What usually happens in this situations is that the surface temps trend colder with the CAD but the warm nose becomes more apparent on the hi-res models.  More people end up with a higher impact event due with more fzrn and sleet, but the big totals don't come to fruition in the I-85 corridor.  Lots of boom or bust potential with this one.  I can't believe the NWS offices are going so high with totals this early.  I believe I would have went with 1-2, 2-4, and ease on up after looking at the column.  They are the experts and get things right most of the time, but this one will be interesting.

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Just the normal crap we have endure tracking winter storms for our area....lol I mean my area (...you're in Europe!). You need to move back to fully feel the pain again. 

Don't worry, average temp here during the winter is around 40 degrees with rain almost every day and when it does get cold and there's moisture it's usually 33 and rain. I've seen one good snow here and it only stayed on the ground for like 1 day. Got so cold the canals froze over and couldn't get any moisture. Every winter I get triggered with flashbacks :wacko2:

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Just now, packfan98 said:

Yeah.  What usually happens in this situations is that the surface temps trend colder with the CAD but the warm nose becomes more apparent on the hi-res models.  More people end up with a higher impact event due with more fzrn and sleet, but the big totals don't come to fruition in the I-85 corridor.  Lots of boom or bust potential with this one.  I can't believe the NWS offices are going so high with totals this early.  I believe I would have went with 1-2, 2-4, and ease on up after looking at the column.  They are the experts and get things right most of the time, but this one will be interesting.

Because it's driven by easterly winds the warm nose won't be as big of a factor according to WPC. So this really could paste you guys for once. 

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6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

And.... the FV3-GFS shifted south again....

Quick question James. Is this just the new PARA run of the GFS? I don't see it on stormvista but they do have a parallel GFS map. 

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Just now, burgertime said:

Quick question James. Is this just the new PARA run of the GFS? I don't see it on stormvista but they do have a parallel GFS map. 

Both Old and New GFS continues the trend south... also the new 06z GEFS follows south into NC , waving back at VA saying see you another time.

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Just now, burgertime said:

Quick question James. Is this just the new PARA run of the GFS? I don't see it on stormvista but they do have a parallel GFS map. 

The FV3 is going to replace the current GFS in about a month.

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Just now, SimeonNC said:

The FV3 is going to replace the current GFS in about a month.

Thanks. Just trying to figure out if that's the map I'm looking at in SV. I'll assume it is. 

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Just now, JoshM said:

I'm not even posting V3 clown maps, they're insane, even by weenie standards.

You really should haha. Only +30 from upstate to GSO :lmao:

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The 6Z NAM has 10-13" totals in Forsyth county running over into extreme NW Guilford. But only 7" in GSO proper. The NAM is continuing to improve overall. It has upped total qpf to over 1.5" in this area. 

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I think FV3 seeing ALL precip as snow. Has close to 3 inches of QPF for most of that 30 inch area...850's look pretty good. So cut the actual snow ratio down a bit and you're still at like 12-20 inches if that were to verify. 

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1 minute ago, burgertime said:

I think FV3 seeing ALL precip as snow. Has close to 3 inches of QPF for most of that 30 inch area...850's look pretty good. So cut the actual snow ratio down a bit and you're still at like 12-20 inches if that were to verify. 

fv3-gfs_2018-12-07-06Z_090_38.156_275.22

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18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Both Old and New GFS continues the trend south... also the new 06z GEFS follows south into NC , waving back at VA saying see you another time.

James,

6z Canadian still looks really good for us. Let me know if the link worked

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-animation.php?mod=gemglb&run=06&stn=PNMPR&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

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1819787941_ScreenShot2018-12-07at6_19_16AM.thumb.png.b50339f011f52736b955070fb038778a.png

 

GFS and Euro ENS side by side. They have been fairly locked in for 48hours now. Then you have the NAM, which is north, leaves RDU to CLT with rain mostly. If the NAM didn't do so well last year then Id be planning on sunday sledding routines right now here in Raleigh. 

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Just now, PackWxMan said:

1819787941_ScreenShot2018-12-07at6_19_16AM.thumb.png.b50339f011f52736b955070fb038778a.png

 

GFS and Euro ENS side by side. They have been fairly locked in for 48hours now. Then you have the NAM, which is north, leaves RDU to CLT with rain mostly. If the NAM didn't do so well last year then Id be planning on sunday sledding routines right now here in Raleigh. 

Even the NAM has slowly been trending more southern i think it'll come in line with the other models pretty soon

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