December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[drfranklin]

time for an obs thread?

[Poimen]

 

[Rankin5150]

1 hour ago, burgertime said:

I think FV3 seeing ALL precip as snow. Has close to 3 inches of QPF for most of that 30 inch area...850's look pretty good. So cut the actual snow ratio down a bit and you're still at like 12-20 inches if that were to verify. 

What if it is correct? I see all the models trending south, hence, this has to mean the cold air is stronger/dryer? I would think this has to bode well for us snow hounds?

[Rankin5150]

With this being so close to the start of the Winter Storm tomorrow, I feel we need to remember to not lose sight of looking at Radar Trends. They can tell a lot. For example, look at the expansiveness of the moisture. WOW! Someone is MOST DEFINITELY GOING TO GET CLOCKED!

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true

i KNOW this is Intellicast Radar, but I am posting this for the ease of viewing, to help any newbies, etc. 

 

[LovingGulfLows]

This system is pretty far suppressed so far. I think folks in VA might get whiffed outside of the southern portion and even they might not get much.

[PackGrad05]

I think we see WWA for central/eastern counties later today.  I don't see Wake going under WSW

[Orangeburgwx]

I'm sitting here laughing because if the southern trend continues my snowfall map from last night will be proven right

[Poimen]

The FV-3 is another whopper for western NC. The Kuchera map is insane again. Obviously, this model may have a problem with its qpf output, as it seems to be higher than others, though the EC/GGEM aren't far behind. 

[GunBlade]

2 minutes ago, Poimen said:

The FV-3 is another whopper for western NC. The Kuchera map is insane again. Obviously, this model may have a problem with its qpf output, as it seems to be higher than others, though the EC/GGEM aren't far behind. 

Yea just as others say cut the snow maps in half I assume half the QPF as well as models overdo QPF many times.  Somewhere will get it but it’s never as widespread as modeled. 

[beanskip]

4 minutes ago, Poimen said:

The FV-3 is another whopper for western NC. The Kuchera map is insane again. Obviously, this model may have a problem with its qpf output, as it seems to be higher than others, though the EC/GGEM aren't far behind. 

Would love to see the Kuchera map. Also — is there a public site for those? 

[Amos83]

Hope it is okay, figured I'd start an official obs thread for the storm. Mods feel free to delete if needed

 

 

[mckinnonwg]

16 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

With this being so close to the start of the Winter Storm tomorrow, I feel we need to remember to not lose sight of looking at Radar Trends. They can tell a lot. For example, look at the expansiveness of the moisture. WOW! Someone is MOST DEFINITELY GOING TO GET CLOCKED!

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true

i KNOW this is Intellicast Radar, but I am posting this for the ease of viewing, to help any newbies, etc. 

 

Here is base reflectivity as well

https://weather.us/radar-us/usa/20181207-124600z.html

[mckinnonwg]

5 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Would love to see the Kuchera map. Also — is there a public site for those? 

[mckinnonwg]

1 minute ago, Poimen said:

All the snow maps at www.weathernerds.org are supposed to use the Kuchera method. It's a cool site that I didn't know about until earlier this week. 

Here is the 6Z FV 3 and the 0Z Canadian. 

 

 

 

I found out about the site last week as well.  Not as user-friendly as some of the larger sites but for a stand-alone site, it does pretty dang well.  Love how you can plot specific points and I prefer some of their contour maps over others.

[Brick Tamland]

The model runs continue to look fantastic. Great to see them stay consistent or get even better the closer we get.

[StoneColdWeatherAustin]

2 minutes ago, Poimen said:

All the snow maps at www.weathernerds.org are supposed to use the Kuchera method. It's a cool site that I didn't know about until earlier this week. 

Here is the 6Z FV 3 and the 0Z Canadian. 

 

 

 

Those both appear to be maps from yesterday, unless I am reading something wrong ?

[mckinnonwg]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

The model runs continue to look fantastic. Great to see them stay consistent or get even better the closer we get.

I have been very impressed with the FV3.  I know it has had data issues, but the consistency and the range were impressive.  If it continues with this streak and does end up verifying, well-spent govt money IMO.

[Poimen]

12 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Would love to see the Kuchera map. Also — is there a public site for those? 

www.weatherners.org is the site I've been using for these Kuchera maps. 

Below is the 6Z FV 3 and the 0Z Canadian for comparison sake. 

[Poimen]

3 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said:

I found out about the site last week as well.  Not as user-friendly as some of the larger sites but for a stand-alone site, it does pretty dang well.  Love how you can plot specific points and I prefer some of their contour maps over others.

yeah...it's a great site. By the way...I goofed on that original post. Those are the wrong images. So I deleted and made a new post with the correct images. 

[Nraleigh]

Just now, mckinnonwg said:

I have been very impressed with the FV3.  I know it has had data issues, but the consistency and the range were impressive.  If it continues with this streak and does end up verifying, well-spent govt money IMO.

I agree.  However, the proof is how it compares to reality.  It is either going to look great and rival the Euro for future storms or be viewed as a joke that was nothing more than a consistent joke.

[Amos83]

Returns streaking out way ahead of the developing low in Texas. FoothillsNC use to harp on this with the large El Nino storms, wouldn't be surprised to see that streak continue and whoever can cash in on it tomorrow could be were the jackpot is

[Poimen]

2 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

Those both appear to be maps from yesterday, unless I am reading something wrong ?

you are correct. I just deleted it and started over. 

[mckinnonwg]

Just now, Nraleigh said:

I agree.  However, the proof is how it compares to reality.  It is either going to look great and rival the Euro for future storms or be viewed as a joke that was nothing more than a consistent joke.

This storm is a major test for that exact reason.  Personally, hope it verifies.  Maybe some of the extra money we spend on the EURO can be back in our pocket.

[UpstateSCBud]

WYFF is buying into the southern trend. They've upped their snowfall totals for the upstate.

[UpstateSCGamecock]

Can you be specific about WYFF? Currently in TN but heading back to southern upstate today.


.

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

26 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I think we see WWA for central/eastern counties later today.  I don't see Wake going under WSW

RAH is currently saying 2-4 inches possible during Sunday in my point and click forecast for N Wake. Since I believe that is warning criteria, a WSW is probably certain.

[wxdawg10]

Just now, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

RAH is currently saying 2-4 inches possible during Sunday in my point and click forecast for N Wake. Since I believe that is warning criteria, a WSW is probably certain.

 i think it'll go up the closer we get to the event. radar already looking extremely healthy.  that plus the model trends overnight i don't see how they don't. 

[mackerel_sky]

All the models trended warmer last night- TARHEELPROGRAMMER

[wake4est]

Anybody have soundings across NC from the 6z Euro? Precip looks perfect for much of the state if all snow. I wonder how much is sleet.

[SnowDawg]

1 hour ago, ryan1234 said:

What I find a bit interesting and it most likely will have nothing to do with our area, is how the WSW's and WWA's have shifted quite a bit south in TX and OK. Before OKC was expecting 4-8 inches, that has gone down and that line of heavier snow has shifted to the south.

Cranky weather guy from twitter mentioned this in his blog yesterday saying that the storm was late to bloom but not late to track. Basically that what was happening out west wouldn’t translate directly to the east coast and in fact he said there might be an inverse reaction where things are wetter over here than expected. But things went south over there not because of more suppression or the low forming way south, but simply because cyclogenesis was later than initially modeled.