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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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Just now, GreensboroWx said:

Based on what I have seen with the overnight runs, I think it might be a bit conservative.

Yes. They said about an hour ago they felt they needed to up the totals and may need to keep adjusting. 

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1 minute ago, GreensboroWx said:

Based on what I have seen with the overnight runs, I think it might be a bit conservative.

I’ll feel better about this if the NAM keeps improving.. the sting of Jan 2017 is still there. I can’t think of a storm where cold overperfromed models in the RDU area..

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Just now, CentralNC said:

January 2000?

You probably know better than I do but I thought that was more of a QPF overperform vs temps 

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Guys, perhaps you all could help me out. I’m trying to understand I’m in the upstate S.C. area. Pivotal  has a crippling freezing rain event on its NAM ICE accumulation algorithm. When I checked the NAM 850 across most if not all the area it’s above freezing. I even checked the 2m temps and it was above freezing. It still had a ice storm. I didn’t bother checking the upper levels after seeing both levels above freezing. Please help me understand what am I missing? 

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3 minutes ago, Wow said:

Despite the N trend from early yesterday, the GEFS popped back and is even further south prior to that trend

 

Gut tells me the 12z suite is gonna get back to glory. 

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1 minute ago, CADEffect said:

Guys, perhaps you all could help me out. I’m trying to understand I’m in the upstate S.C. area. Pivotal  has a crippling freezing rain event on its NAM ICE accumulation algorithm. When I checked the NAM 850 across most if not all the area it’s above freezing. I even checked the 2m temps and it was above freezing. It still had a ice storm. I didn’t bother checking the upper levels after seeing both levels above freezing. Please help me understand what am I missing? 

Have you viewed the soundings?

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7 minutes ago, Wow said:

Despite the N trend from early yesterday, the GEFS popped back and is even further south prior to that trend

IzKHrvG.png

 

If this trend continues my area going to be in 7 or lower zone. :|

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1 minute ago, CADEffect said:

No sir, I have not. Would it be different then what the overall model predicts?

It's possible based on the algorithms used to define the contours.  The soundings will give you the exact dew temp at climbing levels and may show you something different.  But maybe not.  Just one method of verification.

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15 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Anybody have soundings across NC from the 6z Euro? Precip looks perfect for much of the state if all snow. I wonder how much is sleet.

Can’t post the map right now but 06z precip type / temperatures didn’t really change from the one I posted late last night, but the precip shield ticked south and amounts went up across the upstate and southern foothills/piedmont where it has 2.5 to 3.0 storm total liquid

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Just now, CentralNC said:

Just feels to me (maybe my old bones) that this is trending south for highest amounts for snow.  The "finger" on radar seems more W-E instead of NE and it is below my latitude.

The "finger" means more about trajectory then amounts IMO.  I'd prefer to see it south and more west to east.  That tells me more suppressed (not necessarily weaker!) and less worry about WAA.

 

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7f2QjDw_d.jpg?maxwidth=640%26shape=thumb%26fidelity=medium&key=79da2b4134e601c468fffc70b38f053be82370d730f8de8fce7d3b6ec3d8a561WRAL snowfall map - seems bullish to me
 

All I’m going to say is, Fish loves ensembles, and Fish loves certainty, and the ironclad nature of 1 inch + totals on the ensembles have probably weighed on that team.
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i hate it but the wsp disco about the waa being less of a factor than normal due to easterly winds vs SE winds has my hopes up a bit more for clt.  the fv3 and euro match up perfectly with the snow line below the state line but the rgem and nam continue to show it well to our north.  if we could just get them to shift south i would feel much better about the 3-5" the NWS is calling for.

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Impressive amount of moisture coming in off the Pacific into the southwest and feeding into our system as it begins to get organized. Once the vortex moves east and begins to tap the GoM, it looks to be substantial. The early finger is further east and south than I anticipated this morning.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-14-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

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Seems like great south/cooler trends last night.  I think it's all going to come down to that warm nose, and can the top down cooling fight it off.  That's the difference between just getting the front end thump (6 hours maybe?) and getting the whole storm mostly snow.  WPC is on record saying the warm nose shouldn't be too bad as the winds are coming from the east, not southeast.  I'm guessing that's due to the 850 low being to our south (wish it was further south).  I think the FV3 shows the best case scenerio where the top down cooling keeps the mild warm nose at bay throughout.  The other models just don't yet, but seem to do it more last night.  Hopefully today's runs makes the cooler trend.  Very interested today to see how the RGEM handles the storm.  

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Just now, CADEffect said:

Another quick question at this point in the game do you start looking at the precipitation field more in short term models are continue to watch the op models?

I start trusting the short-term operational models 48 hours before an event - but the art of forecasting is in comparing the numerical models/ensemble models, soundings (actual balloon launches), and historical events to obtain your best guess.  24 hours out is usually a "lock" with the models as there is more real/actual atmospheric data and the cone of uncertainty narrows considerably.  That said ALL models have busted at one time or another.

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2 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Impressive amount of moisture coming in off the Pacific into the southwest and feeding into our system as it begins to get organized. Once the vortex moves east and begins to tap the GoM, it looks to be substantial. The early finger is further east and south than I anticipated this morning.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-14-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Yeah I think there are going to be some hearts broken in the MA forum.

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I honestly can't decide what it's going to do in the northern upstate. I think the most logical outcome is mostly cold rain, but there's definitely a chance we could get buried.  I'll remain cautiously optimistic, but expect 1 inch of sleet accumulation for my storm total.

If that lead finger of precip could be mostly snow for us, we could really rack up. It appears the mid-levels will be borderline cold enough for the finger... but surface temps are around 35-37. If the mid-levels are cold enough, i imagine we could cool the surface down to 32-33 with heavy rates inside the finger.

Regardless, the mountains on the NC/SC border are going to get obliterated, both by the lead finger and the main storm. I'm calling the jackpot for the storm as somewhere around rosman/brevard with a total of 20 inches.

 

 

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, griteater said:

Can’t post the map right now but 06z precip type / temperatures didn’t really change from the one I posted late last night, but the precip shield ticked south and amounts went up across the upstate and southern foothills/piedmont where it has 2.5 to 3.0 storm total liquid

Grit, I was wondering what the 6z euro looked like as far as the mixing line on Sunday afternoon.  I know that the 0z seemed to scour out the cold temps pretty fast and even showed rain as far NW as the Triad.  Did the 6z improve any?  Many thanks for your analysis and contributions for this storm!

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