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About Casualbrain

  • Rank
    Bipolar Coastal Lows and Highs

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    Roanoke, VA
  • Interests
    Staying Alive

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  1. Casualbrain

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Looking like an epic ice storm in the Apps....
  2. Casualbrain

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    It's a thing of beauty...
  3. Casualbrain

    2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

    Looks like we're getting screwed here in Roanoke LOL. At least Boone has a better chance of getting a decent snowfall.
  4. Casualbrain

    2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

    Enjoy the show! I was thinking of heading to my sister's place in Cashiers tonight, but I have to be at work on Monday so I can't get stranded
  5. Casualbrain

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    I start trusting the short-term operational models 48 hours before an event - but the art of forecasting is in comparing the numerical models/ensemble models, soundings (actual balloon launches), and historical events to obtain your best guess. 24 hours out is usually a "lock" with the models as there is more real/actual atmospheric data and the cone of uncertainty narrows considerably. That said ALL models have busted at one time or another.
  6. Casualbrain

    2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

    Elevation is your friend! 3333 ft. ASL is a bonus as warm nose can't quite get over the mountain. Blowing Rock will do slightly better as well based on my observations after years living there.
  7. Casualbrain

    2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

    INWS just posted at 3:32 https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=27994705
  8. Casualbrain

    Hurricane Florence

    Let's hope it doesn't happen - but things are looking grim.
  9. Casualbrain

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Major flooding in the Roanoke River basin if this verifies.
  10. Casualbrain

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Ukie = mudslide city here in Western VA. I hope this doesn't verify...
  11. Casualbrain

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Check this out https://www.livescience.com/60354-how-hurricanes-impact-underwater-marine-life.html
  12. Casualbrain

    Major Hurricane Florence

    900 is what Camille was when it made landfall in '69. I had relatives in Western VA that told me harrowing tales of Camille - Florence is going to be deadly - especially if it moves inland. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/08/19/unprecedented-rain-hurricane-camilles-deadly-dlood-in-the-blue-ridge-mountains/?utm_term=.74dea3b04940
  13. Casualbrain

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Well dang - sorry all. Old timer here and didn't realize they changed the scale in 2012. Apologies. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/sshws_2012rev.pdf
  14. Casualbrain

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Technically upper edge of Cat 3 - but yeah she's pretty much a Cat 4 at this point.
  15. Casualbrain

    Pattern abnormalities at 500mb

    Raleigh NC NWS posted the same graph for their area: https://twitter.com/NWSRaleigh/status/966374652804296709/photo/1