Casualbrain

Looking like an epic ice storm in the Apps....

It's a thing of beauty...

Looks like we're getting screwed here in Roanoke LOL. At least Boone has a better chance of getting a decent snowfall.

Enjoy the show! I was thinking of heading to my sister's place in Cashiers tonight, but I have to be at work on Monday so I can't get stranded

I start trusting the short-term operational models 48 hours before an event - but the art of forecasting is in comparing the numerical models/ensemble models, soundings (actual balloon launches), and historical events to obtain your best guess. 24 hours out is usually a "lock" with the models as there is more real/actual atmospheric data and the cone of uncertainty narrows considerably. That said ALL models have busted at one time or another.

Elevation is your friend! 3333 ft. ASL is a bonus as warm nose can't quite get over the mountain. Blowing Rock will do slightly better as well based on my observations after years living there.

INWS just posted at 3:32 https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=27994705

Let's hope it doesn't happen - but things are looking grim.

Thanks for the work to fix this issue all!

Anyone else getting strange tab popups when connecting to AW? Been happening to me all day, and my virus-scan says my machine is clean?

I'm going to be in the Canyon Lake area over Christmas - hoping it's not too cold so I can go water skiing

Cool roanoke snow photo by a local We got 18.5 at my place.