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About ILMRoss

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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KRDU
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Gender
Male
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Location:
Raleigh
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It took longer than I was hoping. But finally some flakes mixing in around historic oakwood in Raleigh
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Ok, think I see what’s up. The radar beam goes upward as it goes further from the site- by the time the beam is reaching the NC Piedmont, its 3-4K feet in the air, where everything is still snow. Any changeover, which is what lower CC values will pick up, is below the beam
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Which radar are you using?
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Actually, CC will still easily pick out a rain snow line. It’s very useful in any winter situation, no matter the p-type
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I think the r/s line won’t do a traditional steady march and will instead collapse and flip entire counties very quickly. It’s close... there’s a r/s mPING around Clayton of all places... anybody around there that can confirm?
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Yeah honestly at this stage the dye has been cast and I don’t know how much more further knowledge can be massaged out of guidance. At this point, we’re comparing obs. Grit that’s a pretty brutal forecast. I’m a little more optimistic, I thought I would of learned my lesson by now!
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why are people scared of the nam? I thought it looked fine.
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sounds like the easterlies kept the beaches a little chilly! really hoping yall in SENC get a share of the action, always cute to see my parents send me winter pics from wilmington proper. you're on the edge in topsail but i wouldn't be surprised if you get a brief burst of some token flakes down there
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we're gambling here- getting a couple of hours of rad cooling would be killer, but the flipside is that if clouds roll in before sundown, it keeps those higher temperatures nestled in a little longer.
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My "yardstick" for quick hitters is January 2011, where Wilmington got about 4 inches in 3 hours. Hampstead, a little town about 10 miles north, got 9 inches. We basically sat on a frontogenesis band that overperformed. not a complete analogy, it was ultra cold that week and we started that event at like 27 degrees. I personally think that someone in a line between henderson and edenton could wind up with 8+ inches, but that changeover needs to be fast and swift for that to happen, and that's an extreme call.
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i know that we're having fun piling onto WRAL but this blow their conservatism out of the water. wow.
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Don't think it's a heat island, think it has to do more with perception of time while looking at radar (watched pot never boils, longest minute is a microwave minute etc...) I also think the transition line can and does slow down, but i think it has more to do with Raleigh's geographic positioning to where storms typically form off the coast- the gulf stream really dictates where these cyclones form and often they form in the perfect position for Raleigh to be flirting with that r/s line more than usual.
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Alright, glad the qpf picture got cleared up. i think there's more frontier to to figure out- how the cycle evolves. (i'm going to say cyclogenesis some here which basically means the formation of low pressure) Guidance has a pretty interesting method of cyclogenesis- we don't get this that often to it's hard to say this definitively, but it appears we go lee cyclogenesis against the apps before a low forms off the coast? I'll pull a pressure field from an arbitrary model: We got two low pressure centers- one off the coast (as expected) but another floating around northern South Carolina. I think that this is doing two things: -enhancing precip in the western piedmont and -delaying the changeover in the eastern piedmont. how this feature is modeled is something i'm keeping an eye on. i have *no idea* how this will evolve because we simply don't see setups like this very often and i don't have a sleeve for this in my mental rolodex. but, i think that if the coastal develops more quickly, surface winds will have a more northerly component and expedite cold air advection. this would mean less precip i think for, say, davidson.
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It's not often you see the GFS/GEFS body the NAM like this in the short term; but just goes to show, just because a time frame is a model's "wheelhouse" doesn't mean its necessarily correct
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i don't think there's going to be a very pronounced dry slot and if there is it will be a luck of the draw kinda thing, i wouldn't fret too much over it