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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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NAM scrapes the coastline this go around and has the low subsequently go from CHS at 48 to MYR at 51 and then a position JUST south of the outer banks at 54. Better track for the foothills and mountains of NC/VA. Gonna be some good weenie maps.

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6 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

UGH!

zr_acc.us_ma.png

That's one of the scariest maps I've seen on these boards. Greenville and Spartanburg would never been the same -- and Charlotte/Rock Hill wouldn't be much better. 

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1 minute ago, GunBlade said:

That is a devastating look for many areas including where I am.  Add that on top of snow and sleet and it will be a disaster here. 

Yes, the upstate in a very icy spot today

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1 minute ago, RTPGiants said:

Clown map on NAM is ridiculous...if we could somehow manage to keep it a degree cooler.

Looks like the ice is worse as you go from Raleigh to Charlotte. Maybe the snow up this way will be more then.

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NAM was not a bad look at all with the track of that low....There could be a good amount of snow as it goes up the coast and out to see. It's never easy lol. 

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2 minutes ago, beanskip said:

That's one of the scariest maps I've seen on these boards. Greenville and Spartanburg would never been the same -- and Charlotte/Rock Hill wouldn't be much better. 

Yeah 1.39 ZR = be prepared to not have power for a week. There's going to be an unlucky ice zone it seems, just hope it isn't that large and doesn't last that long.

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Just now, SimeonNC said:

Rock Hill, Ballantyne, Pineville, etc. all get clobbered with ice. 

Ice is def nuts this go around down that way. Stay safe if it comes to fruition.

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The low on 3k is jumping around like crazy between hr37-40. I’m guessing it has to do with the convection and dynamics and what not. 

Hr 42 has the low over Tallahassee, whereas 12z had it southeast of MYR

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1 minute ago, packfan98 said:

The hi-res Nam is much less ominous with the freezing rain.

 

Must be more in the way of sleet or just plain rain. I assume the former? Do the Kuchera maps account for sleet?

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2 minutes ago, beanskip said:

The hi-res NAM and the other NAMs need to huddle up and get on the same page!

at this point I would trust the NAM-3k on precip type!

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If the NAM keeps showing these ice totals, this area will be a disaster area. However, it's only 1 run and things will continue to change. There is no need for cliff diving or hugging one particular model. That will only cause pain. I am curious to see what the FV3 does for its next run. It has been the most consistent thus far and I wouldn't completely discount those higher snowfall amounts.  

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

The low on 3k is jumping around like crazy between hr37-40. I’m guessing it has to do with the convection and dynamics and what not. 

It's just the arbitrary point where the absolute center is moving around in the broad area where the center is. Look at the mslp lines, they don't move around much.

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1 minute ago, packfan98 said:

The hi-res Nam is also more West to East oriented like the Euro.  More friendly to the I-40 corridor than the 12z run.

snku_acc.us_ma.png

QUestion -- so how do you reconcile these maps in Gaston County, NC? There is no ice AND no snow? All sleet? 

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