Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

Reports to the west of warmer mid levels than modeling showed. Nam going north, GFS calming down. All we can hope for is the FV3 and Euro hold. That’s all sleet tho. This is a sleet of r cold rain for majority of us regardless of what models show. 

Maybe read more and post less? I don't know if you're trolling us or being serious. Where are the mods at?

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
  • Confused 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

You haven't lived in NC long enough if you don't expect a bust on every snow forecast.  I am fine with less snow in Raleigh so long as its not being replaced by freezing rain.  Just bust out with cold rain at that point won't be the first time and certainly not the last time it happens haha

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, burgertime said:

Doesn't appear to be also has a lot to do with orientation...convection can also enhance banding.  

From what I understand thunderstorms oriented perpendicular to the storm track essentially act as a firehouse of moisture into a system, whereas storms oriented parallel to the storm track can basically act to cut off the conveyor belt of moisture by disturbing the inflow into the storm.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:

From what I understand thunderstorms oriented perpendicular to the storm track essentially act as a firehouse of moisture into a system, whereas storms oriented parallel to the storm track can basically act to cut off the conveyor belt of moisture by disturbing the inflow into the storm.

Yea Allan did a good write up on it and I believe you're exactly right. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z Canadian remains formidable. Tracks the low directly over Charleston it looks like (those maps are always difficult). From there has it as a 993 sitting over Hatteras at hr 60 (in line with most of the high res models from 18z).

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=gemglb&run=18&stn=PNM&hh=060&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Well we know who Virginia is rooting for....I'm ready to see how this battle between ice and snow plays out and where the battle lines are. Also that cutoff on the RGEM is pretty wild. 

Given the ridge to the north, I suspect that the 18z run of the RGEM is an outlier. While I think the extreme eastern portion of Virginia could be in line for appreciable to significant snowfall, the overall body of the guidance still leads me to believe that the core of the heaviest snowfall will be over a portion of North Carolina. It will be interesting to see what the 0z guidance shows.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Given the ridge to the north, I suspect that the 18z run of the RGEM is an outlier. While I think the extreme eastern portion of Virginia could be in line for appreciable to significant snowfall, the overall body of the guidance still leads me to believe that the core of the heaviest snowfall will be over a portion of North Carolina. It will be interesting to see what the 0z guidance shows.

My money is gonna be AVL or somewhere abouts there. Thanks for the input, always know it's a fun time when you swing by our neck of the woods :D 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

I'm thinking that for many of us that the threat of zr will be minimized by the marginally cold air mass. ZR accrues more quickly when there is a very cold and dry layer at ground level, this air mass does not have that level of cold, so accrual should be less severe.

I agree, 31 or 32 degrees with moderate freezing rain will have at least half of that run off before it can freeze. I'll be real interested in the dew point to our north once the event evolves. Also as we get the initial snow, that can pull our temps down lower. If we happen to get into the upper 20s when we transition, the ice could be worse. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ajr said:

Sorry I’m catching up here, but what are we making of this terrible 18z NAM run? We tossing?JyBZAzm_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&f

Depends on what your feelings are regarding verification scores with the RGEM and CMC? Both support the higher totals more north right now. GFS made a slight bump north with the precip. Is it a trend or just a slight adjustment? I know most the players will be on the playing field come 0z runs. Should predominantly nail everything down then. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, burgertime said:

My money is gonna be AVL or somewhere abouts there. Thanks for the input, always know it's a fun time when you swing by our neck of the woods :D 

It should be an exciting storm. Are you in North Carolina for the storm or watching developments from Amsterdam?

P.S. RAH has updated its forecast map. RDU is now shown at 5" (vs. 2" from the earlier map).

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

It should be an exciting storm. Are you in North Carolina for the storm or watching developments from Amsterdam?

P.S. RAH has updated its forecast map. RDU is now shown at 5" (vs. 2" from the earlier map).

 

Just being insane and watching from Amsterdam. Much more exciting than the weather here (though we have a few streets that are more exciting than weather). Speaking of updates, I've noticed on my social media feeds my friends seem to have no clue about this storm. Hopefully word gets out cause no matter what it's going to cause major headaches. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • jburns unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...