Berlin1926

I gotta say, I'm flummoxed. I thought the other day that this was going to vanish but by last night I was ready to say that I was totally wrong. And, then, poof, it was gone. We all have seen storms disappear but this close to the starting gate...? If indeed nothing happens, it would be a first for me.

I hope i'm wrong but everyone may get a whole lot of nuttin'. 2 days out and models still all over the place. I see a lot of wishcasting. Again, I hope I'M WRONG but there's a tiny window for Southern snow/ice etc., and this isn't it.

I know it's painful, but Raleigh also has lower chances. Wishcasting won't make it so. PS Holly Springs isn't Raleigh.

Raleigh has dropped the chances for snow/winter wx from 70% to 60%

We may very easily get nothing.

30 - 50%? That's pitiful. Could the models be so inconsistent this close to a potential event because there's actually no event to occur?

Not that it's worth anything but I still think there will be no "big" event (anything less than 4" of snow; .25" of ZR isn't a "big deal"). MBY Thursday night rain, sure but Friday - Saturday could very much be a bust, nada, no-show for all. I hope I'm wrong.

Unfortunately, it could be nothing as well...? I.e. no storm, just cold?

32F here in Durham -- was up in Oxford about 30 minutes northeast up I-85 about an hour ago....snowing there and 30F. Roads in my neighborhood near downtown Durham are covered in thick sleet and freezing rain.

It doesn't meet Warning criteria anywhere right of Winston. Just saw your post Olaf... That's what I was wondering. Now, THAT makes sense. The totals they are showing doesn't = qpf being advertised. Your explanation clarifies. Thank you!

So, RAH is basically saying most of what falls will be unfrozen and will fall when temps are over 32F pretty much from Greensboro east. 1 - 3" pf snow and .10" of ice? Nothing to see here.

Thanks all for responses.. I suppose whenever RAH issues a W S WATCH more than 24 hours before an event, they are taking it seriously. Was down in Durham today, not a word...meanwhile, Person County up near Roxboro already looks like a war zone. Looks like Durhamites are in for a surprise/shock. PS what is criteria for an Ice Storm Warning? .25?

Wait. What? .10" causes power outages, right? .75 to 1.5" would be....bad?

Thunder in Person County tonight. Summer-like downpour. Side note, it's 20F in Caribou, Maine and 4F in Dallas, Texas tonight.

Up and blooming

Lighter precipitation too....

What is happening? LOL. Sleet/snow fest in southern Person County.

Pleasantly surprised... we had 4" -- friends over north of Oxford, about 15 miles due east had 6".

RAH is unimpressed as of 0315 this morning. Does everyone agree with them now that they've had more models to review? .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 AM Friday... At the beginning of the extended forecast, an upper level low will be near Chicago, with a surface low slightly south of the upper low. The upper low will weaken as it shifts southeast. Meanwhile, the surface low over the Midwest will fill as Miller B cyclogenesis develops near the Carolinas, with a surface low somewhere off the Norfolk coast by Monday morning. By Sunday morning have removed any mention of snow from the forecast, as it appears that the maximum temperature in the column should be warm enough to melt any falling snow, so have simply gone with rain or freezing rain around sunrise. By mid morning all locations should have surface temperatures rise above freezing, and precipitation should fall as rain for the rest of the day. There will be a fair gradient in temperatures across the forecast area, with the Triad remaining in the upper 30s while southern counties will likely push into the 50s. The development of the coastal low appears to be slightly farther east in the 00Z model runs than previous runs, which should keep the bulk of Sunday night`s precipitation a bit farther east. Still have likely pops primarily to the east of I-95, where precipitation would fall as all rain. However, any precipitation making its way into central North Carolina from the decaying inland low should have enough cold air that a slight chance of freezing rain or snow cannot be ruled out. As the upper low continues tracking to the east, have put slight chance pops back into the forecast on Monday to better collaborate with neighboring offices, although the most widespread precipitation will have already fallen the day before. A slight chance of rain/snow will remain in the forecast Monday night, primarily north and east of Raleigh. With both the upper and surface lows east of the region by Tuesday morning, all precipitation will come to an end with clearing skies Tuesday. Skies will remain clear Tuesday night and Wednesday, with increasing clouds Wednesday night and Thursday in advance of the next system. Temperatures will start the period below normal and finally rise back to normal values by Thursday.

Is there an area of sleet and Freezing rain south of the VA/NC border?

Borrowed this from the Mid-Atlantic thread.

Nada in Butner (southern Granville County)

Spoke too soon -- light sleet and snow flurries in Butner.

Northern Durham and southern Granville Counties in a No-Snow-Hole

I don't want to throw cold water on this - I want snow as much as anyone, but... RAH is very skeptical. Of course, this was posted before 5AM, but how much has changed to challenge their logic? While many models continue to indicate the possibility of some rather impressive snowfall accumulations, still thinking accumulations and overall impacts will remain far less than the numbers that the raw model solutions keep pushing out. Several limiting factors will be at work, including: (1.) Persistent above freezing surface temperatures that will help temper/melt the majority of the snowfall. (2.) 10:1 snow to liquid ratios are not likely in an event like this, expect closer to 5:1 or even less than that. (3.) The parent high remains in an unfavorable climatological location for delivery of efficient cold air. While there is some indication that the high may break off to our north becoming a bit more favorable, thinking that we`ll need to rely on a stronger than anticipated bombing coastal low to truly get the cold air in place in-time for a significant snowfall event. Another possibility would be the presence of lower than anticipated surface dewpoints in place Thursday afternoon and evening across central NC, which will promote a more lucrative wet-bulb effect. A more reasonable, way-to-early forecast would be closer to an inch on grassy and elevated surfaces along and southeast of the I-95 corridor with a half inch or so measured up to about the Triangle region. Elsewhere an exciting trace amount would be prevalent.