Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[Rmine1]

9 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Nobody should want more rain now

SW Suffolk could use some. Things have dried out considerably since the last rain event. Wind is not helping 

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s not warm core and anyone that says it is is just hyping. Warm core cyclones don’t behave like this. 

This from the 0Z Euro suite per pro met@vortex95shows a 70-80% chance for tropical development! How do you explain this?

[TriPol]

33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Don S. in the main September thread is also downplaying this event and I agree with him especially for areas west of Long Island - Long Island and southern/eastern New England remain the regions where heavy flooding rains are more likely. Along the coast down to the Delmarva -coastal flooding -beach erosion -high waves and high winds are the main concern. Upton and Mt. Holly are doing the right thing by down playing it at this time also IMO. 

I don't see Don downplaying it at all. He's said uncertainty exists. That was 12 hours ago. I think if the 12z suites all come in where they've been overnight, the uncertainty will disappear. NOAA hugging the GFS is new to me, but we'll see what they do. I think by 1 PM today, they'll hoist Gale and HWW for Long Island, not just the coastal waters. I think they'll also start flood watches beginning tomorrow at 8 pm for the area as well.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This from the 0Z Euro suite per pro met@vortex95shows a 70-80% chance for tropical development! How do you explain this?

This will have a subtropical core. So a hybrid system. For coordination and awareness purposes this should probably get a name like they sometimes do with subtropical storms.

 

 

 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This will have a subtropical core. So a hybrid system. For coordination and awareness purposes this should probably get a name like they sometimes do with subtropical storms.

 

 

 

 Then the NHC should be adding it to its TWOs since those address the chance for both T and ST development. Adding it to its TWOs has been suggested by both JB and @vortex95

[Tatamy]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This will have a subtropical core. So a hybrid system. For coordination and awareness purposes this should probably get a name like they sometimes do with subtropical storms.

 

 

 

If they name it the next name is Gonzalo

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I don't see Don downplaying it at all. He's said uncertainty exists. That was 12 hours ago. I think if the 12z suites all come in where they've been overnight, the uncertainty will disappear. NOAA hugging the GFS is new to me, but we'll see what they do. I think by 1 PM today, they'll hoist Gale and HWW for Long Island, not just the coastal waters. I think they'll also start flood watches beginning tomorrow at 8 pm for the area as well.

IMO, the probability of a more significant impact in the NYC area has increased overnight. The uncertainty is lessening.

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, the probability of a more significant impact in the NYC area has increased overnight. The uncertainty is lessening.

It's going to be a Nor'Easter. We'll get a few inches of rain we don't need right now. Trees will fall. Roads will flood. We'll live! Then, next week, we'll be in the 70s. I'm semi-looking forward to that before it starts getting to sweater weather.

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, TriPol said:

It's going to be a Nor'Easter. We'll get a few inches of rain we don't need right now. Trees will fall. Roads will flood. We'll live! Then, next week, we'll be in the 70s. I'm semi-looking forward to that before it starts getting to sweater weather.

I think the impacts at some of the beaches will be pretty bad-days of onshore flow pushing water in before the main event and full moon Saturday to boot.

[Neblizzard]

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

You should break down the areas that will get a few inches - the areas that will get a few showers only and the areas that will get more than a few inches Some areas to the east will have trees falling with significant flooding this is not a uniform event there will be a wide range of outcomes. 

Should know more after the 12z suite. 

[mob1]

While the HRRR is notoriously too amped and NW at this range, it's too far off of what the 0Z Euro had (though it's far tamer in its latest run) and if other models come in that tucked to the coast I could see this being a more significant wind event than what's currently expected. 

 

[TriPol]

22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

You should break down the areas that will get a few inches - the areas that will get a few showers only and the areas that will get more than a few inches Some areas to the east will have trees falling with significant flooding this is not a uniform event there will be a wide range of outcomes. 

I "should?" I don't work for the NWS. I'm just someone who has obsessively watched every model run for the past few days. Trying to distract myself from work.

[MANDA]

Winds along the NJ beaches currently gusting between 30 and 40 mph.  Winds have been onshore for a few days and water has been piling up.  With model trends over the last 12-24 hours I'd say the threat of major coastal impacts has ticked up. Minor to moderate coastal flooding / beach erosion seems like a given at this point.  Wind gusts could reach 50 mph before all is said and done along NJ coast and Long Island. Eastern LI maybe higher. Jersey shore and LI Sound favored for most significant coastal impacts.  Depending on wind trajectories this is one of those events where water could pile westward across LI Sound.

Rainfall totals still an enigma as to what areas get the highest totals and how much that might be.  

[Rjay]

23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I think the impacts at some of the beaches will be pretty bad-days of onshore flow pushing water in before the main event and full moon Saturday to boot.

Yup. I wouldn't have made a thread if there wasn't the potential for this to be a significant/damaging event in part of the sub.  

[Brian5671]

NAM looks west through about hour 20

[MJO812]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

NAM looks west through about hour 20

Yep  much further west so far

[mob1]

NAM is a fairly significant event for the coast 

[mob1]

4 minutes ago, mob1 said:

NAM is a fairly significant event for the coast 

Big change 

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

This from the 0Z Euro suite per pro met@vortex95shows a 70-80% chance for tropical development! How do you explain this?

It will have some tropical characteristics, but it’s generated from baroclinic forcing. There might appear to be an eye, but that’s just dry air near the center. It’s a typical nor’easter that’s being enhanced because of warm SST and proximity to the Gulf Stream. So while it might look like a tropical storm the physics behind it are far different. 

[lee59]

Judging by recent model runs, the offshore track looks to be off the books. Looks like some significant impacts for our area. The coast is taking a beating with erosion, not a good sign so early in the season.

[MJO812]

Nam is a dangerous scenario

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It will have some tropical characteristics, but it’s generated from baroclinic forcing. There might appear to be an eye, but that’s just dry air near the center. It’s a typical nor’easter that’s being enhanced because of warm SST and proximity to the Gulf Stream. So while it might look like a tropical storm the physics behind it are far different. 

Thanks. Do you see it having a chance to transition from cold core, which we all agree it will start as, to ST status?

[NJwx85]

Just now, GaWx said:

Thanks. Do you see it having a chance to transition from cold core, which we all agree it will start as, to ST status?

No. This is a nasty nor’easter. It reminds me of March 2010, if you’re old enough to remember that one.

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is a dangerous scenario

I hope we get tracks like this in 3 months.

[NJwx85]

The NAM already starts weakening the storm by Saturday morning. It’s a very different setup than the EURO. It’s also very sparse with rainfall. Could be convective feedback or the fact that the NAM is terrible at handling coastal storms with tropical characteristics.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The NAM already starts weakening the storm by Saturday morning. It’s a very different setup than the EURO. It’s also very sparse with rainfall. Could be convective feedback or the fact that the NAM is terrible at handling coastal storms with tropical characteristics.

Yeah almost no rain here.  LOL.   NAM being the NAM and overdoing it.

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah almost no rain here.  LOL.   NAM being the NAM and overdoing it.

The 3k NAM is wildly different lol. Gets down into the 960’s with a more expansive precip shield. It also goes nuts with low level shear. There would definitely be water spouts coming onshore if it verifies. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The 3k NAM is wildly different lol. Gets down into the 970’s with a more expansive precip shield. It also goes nuts with low level shear. There would definitely be water spouts coming onshore if it verifies. 

meso's going nuts lol.   another model another solution.   RGEM next

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No. This is a nasty nor’easter. It reminds me of March 2010, if you’re old enough to remember that one.

When was the comparable last nasty cold core nor’easter that occurred in your area as early as late Sept? The ones I recall off the top of my head for your area waited at least til Oct and were mainly in the latter half of Oct to boot.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

When was the comparable last nasty cold core nor’easter that occurred in your area as early as late Sept? The ones I recall off the top of my head for your area waited at least til Oct and were mainly in the latter half of Oct to boot.

yeah, it's early for sure, but the fall of 2002 (also a nino yr) had a bunch in Sept starting on Labor day.