Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[EasternLI]

AIFS-ENS sure seems to favor the idea of this thing having some impact...

 

[wthrmn654]

The trend for the eps is a tighter and tighter cluster each run it looks like..

[guinness77]

Heads up for you LIRR commuters…winds have already been a problem, two downed utility poles by Bethpage will mess up your commute on the Ronkonkoma branch into tomorrow morning. This has been going on since 1pm today. 

[wthrmn654]

Coastal flood watches and advisory have started

[wthrmn654]

High wind watch up for Rhode Island shoreline...

 

For what is worth 12k Nam is way west,  waiting for 3k to finish

[wthrmn654]

Nws is really down playing this heavily it would seem, it would appear they favor the gfs.. there even thinking nbm precip amounts are to high... interesting

 

Isn't there a saying when Upton isn't in, we get hit.

 

 

Kept with NBM POPS for the most part, but feel that they may be a

little too high during Friday through Saturday afternoon. Rain

chances begin Friday morning, and for mainly east of the city, rain

is likely Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. For the the

city and points west, rain chances are mostly below 50% through the

event, but go above it Saturday afternoon and night. Still thinking

that rainfall flooding impacts are little to none - just low chance

for flooding across far eastern zones, and probably limited to

minor. QPF forecast combined with FFG values wouldn`t support flash

flooding. If models trend west with the storm track, then western

zones could have a chance of minor flooding. As for winds,

anticipating gusts to remain below advisory thresholds, but it could

come close across eastern LI and SE CT late day Friday through

Saturday morning.

[wthrmn654]

Icon looks about same maybe a little west

Rgem looks better even. 

Nams are west. 

[Snowlover11]

So expect anything from nothing to a major impact. Got it.

[MJO812]

Icon is a soaker 

[TriPol]

9 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Icon looks about same maybe a little west

Rgem looks better even. 

Nams are west. 

We'll see if the 18z GFS bows to the EURO 

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

So expect anything from nothing to a major impact. Got it.

This is going to be a FUN winter.

[wthrmn654]

Just now, TriPol said:

We'll see if the 18z GFS bows to the EURO 

If the gfs comes west,  Upton will need to change a lot of things but watch everything shift east then near the end. It never ends

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

If the gfs comes west,  Upton will need to change a lot of things but watch everything shift east then near the end. It never ends

same thing every noreaster-GFS flat out to sea then comes on board at the end