Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

I’ll be in Atlantic City Thursday thru Sunday at the very lease should have some big wave action.

bring your surf board

[NEG NAO]

12Z Canadian is dry west of Long Island- except some wrap around showers on the back end  - HP at first is weaker and further west near Lake Superior allowing the storm to get a few miles west of the GFS

[wthrmn654]

So many moving parts,  jeez 

[Brian5671]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

So many moving parts,  jeez 

Thats part of the problem-the models having difficulty honing in on which part develops and when, thus all the different solutions

[wthrmn654]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Thats part of the problem-the models having difficulty honing in on which part develops and when, thus all the different solutions

Exactly, sad to say but I kinda wish models were less i guess advanced like they were several years ago versus what they are now.... seems to me to many changes these days right up to game time. 

 

[Snowlover11]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

bring your surf board

I’ll be inside the casino

[wthrmn654]

Comparing the 00z to 12zgefs, looking at total precip is nearly identical all the way to NYC from the image I can see not fully zoomed in..

[wthrmn654]

Eastern areas kinda look like more precip though but hard to tell. 

[wthrmn654]

Jma is west of 00z lmao yeah I'm going put the phone down and do some yard work with all this variability, no point in wasting brain cells yet when models are all over the place still

[mgerb]

Back and forth we go.

 

[JYE]

12z Euro looks to be incoming

[TriPol]

12z EURO is the same track its been for a while. Slams it into Long Island and retrogrades west. The low weakens while it does this. 

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

almost no rain though lol

Brian, how bad would the coastal flooding be in NYC if this track were to verify closely? Would it be very high impact for the city?

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Brian, how bad would the coastal flooding be in NYC if this track were to verify closely? Would it be very high impact for the city?

Hard to say for the city proper.  But we're having east/northeast winds right now which is piling up water so I would think moderate at least for LI/CT/NJ coasts

[TriPol]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Hard to say for the city proper.  But we're having east/northeast winds right now which is piling up water so I would think moderate at least for LI/CT/NJ coasts

Also, the ground is pretty saturated from the prior rain storms we've had this summer/autumn. With high winds, I'd be concerned about a lot of trees falling.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Also, the ground is pretty saturated from the prior rain storms we've had this summer/autumn. With high winds, I'd be concerned about a lot of trees falling.

Definitely but probably need winds over 40mph for that to be an issue.   

[MJO812]

Euro way west of 0z